Gunnevera
FlyinLate
Senior Member
Well after arguably the murkiest derby picture in my lifetime of betting horses, he's the only one I see a lot of upside to in the Derby. Asssuming he works well going into the derby and draws ok, this is where I'll fall.
Anyone else?
Anyone else?
Comments
Tanner's Pride in the last at Santa Anita shouldn't be 50-1. He's like a 12-1 shot.
Can't help you in the derby - wide open.
Not much! All is well, just been slammed with work and what not. You have my number, text me anytime. I'll be at Del Mar for the breeders cup, you up for meeting up for a few and some post race festivities?
done deal.
Aside from maybe Reach The World, i think AD has more upside (especially at the upcoming longer distances) than any 3yo in the country. I'm probably more concerned with circumstances getting him beat than with any lack of talent on his part.
Horses like Gunnevera, McCracken, IWC, Classic Empire, and even Gormley are eligible to bounce back to their best form (or even exceed it), but i think Always Dreaming is more likely to make a significant move forward than anyone. I really feel like we haven't seen his best race yet. I'll be real interested to see how he trains once he gets to Churchill.
Negatives would be the new surface, potential bad post/traffic issues, and of course Pletcher's 1-for-45 record in the Derby (ouch).
FL if you like Gunnevera then you have to like Irish War Cry. ( My choice )
He's only beaten Gunnevera twice and the way he won The Woods.
A horse no-one is mentioning is Hence ( Mind That Bird ) the winner of The Sunland Derby.
This puppy is no joke. Conquest Mo Money was my choice yesterday, if Malagacy, who didn't need the race and Classic Empire didn't show up , which he did.
That showed me how good Hence is.
My top horses for the top 4 spots.
Irish War Cry
Always Dreaming
Gunnevera
Classic Empire
Thunder Snow ( if he comes to run from Dubai )
Hence ( The Sleeper )
There you have it guy's......
May The Horse Be With You.....
I read an article not long ago, and while completely opinionated, one sentence stuck out and made more sense than any trainer angle I've read before. Todd Pletcher trains horses to get into the derby, not win the Kentucky Derby. Now this initially sounds off, who wouldn't want to win the derby? Think about it though. Pletcher is a machine. He routinely gets the best crop and routinely has several horses who regress or remain stagnant in the derby. What do these owners want? They want to run in the KY Derby. He cranks his horses to the gills to ensure they make the gate.
One of the biggest angles I've taken going into the derby for years was, who is going to IMPROVE off their prep? Who brings in the excuses while still running well? Who will relish the extra distance? Gunnevera has absolutely nothing to hang his head about. Coming from way he back he picked off horses on a conveyor belt course to finish a routine 3rd. Another angle for the derby is versatility. Who can be up close on a slow pace? Who can drop back if the pace is on fire? Gunnevera fits the bill. It's also been widely speculated, both before and after the Florida Derby, that Gunnevera was not trained to run his best that day, they wanted to leave plenty in the tank.
There's just too many of these underlying positive signs for Gunnevera. I've got to get ready for Easter festivities but will chime in later on the other posts. Happy Easter all!!
HENCE:
Just worked in company today and went 5f in 1:00 and change. Assman thought he looked as good as he ever has. Many have already labeled Hence as the "Wise Guy" play based on his Sunland Derby win and the 2nd placing of Conquest Mo Money in Arkansas Derby(Hence beat Conquest Mo Money by double digit lengths at Sunland). I have always liked him since his maiden win where he displayed tremendous athletic ability when he lunged toward the rail late and got back and won. Typical Assman pattern, his next two works will be slower than slow and many will forget him come Derby Day. If he stays healthy and draws ok, should be in the 18-1 range? A "PLAYER" FOR SURE.
CLASSIC EMPIRE
One thing you cannot overlook with him is his Heart and desire. That said, his internal fractions in the Arkansas Derby were fast, and the final fraction was in the 6 flat range, and he was seemingly just then getting into his best stride. I heard someone say he was on the wrong lead, but I didn"t hear that from Equibase race caller Jeff Taylor when we talked Sunday morning so I don"t think that was true. What was true was that looking at the head-on Classic Empire was maybe the only horse in the race who did not drift out and ziz-zag in the stretch. He was straight as a string, and that bodes well for a horse attempting to get 1 1/4. No doubt, he will be the favorite on the first Saturday in May! 4-1 likely?
Gunnie, Gormley, McCrack, and the TAP wonder horse are all players, but the next few weeks and post draw will be most telling?
Who gets to ride Hence?
If I liked Always Dreaming, I would bet him to win a Triple Crown, because *might* lay over this field. I'm calling him a typical nag. Fuck it. And actually Baffert will be protecting the Triple Crown legacy for sure. He'll be sending in troops as needed - so it's a bad bed. No Triple Crown the BET!
I've heard that Classic Empire is the best work horse of all time, hell of a runner too, for all the jokes I've made. Could easily see value @ 6 or 7-1, but probably just key in some small tri's.I've got small action already with the futures.
Irab winning The Bluegrass, who was 4th in The Sunland Derby.
Conquest Mo Money 2nd in The Arkansas Derby. Beaten by a neck, where in Sunland Hence won going away by about 4 from dead last.
Distance isn't a problem for this puppy. He from a Mare by the great AP Indy by Seattle Slew by a Mare Weekend Surprise who's by The Great Secretairiat.
He's got my bet for the Win at good odds.
May The Horse Be With You.....
John,
I also want to point out that Hence worked better on April 10th than this work. I was told he jogged to the track like a BEAST and went out and worked a 47.4 4F B and it was the gallop out that caught my backstretch boys eye. We know for him to come back 7 days later and put in another big work for Assman then he's doing really well. Below are his internal fractions from Sunland Derby. He's now the WISE GUY horse and will take plenty at the window if he draws well on Ky Derby day. Especially if Hedge Fund wins the Illinois Derby this Saturday. I'll also be sending out the 1st edition of the Ky Derby doings this coming Saturday. Check your inbox.
HENCE
SUNLAND DERBY INTERNAL FRACTIONS
first 1/4 mile -- :24.51
second 1/4 mile -- :22.11
third 1/4 mile -- :23.90
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.19
final 1/8 mile -- :12.39
final 3/8 mile -- :37.58
5F 1:00.40. 13.00, 25.40, 37.00, 48.60, out 6F 1:13.40, 7F 1:27.00
Take note from the 25.4 to the 48.6 mark, that's a 23.20 quarter which equates to back to back 11.60 second 1/8th's and from the 25.4 to 100.40 is 35 flat 3f, this is serious!!!
Right now with Untrapped on the fence, he doesn't have a ride. He fits the bill nicely after riding Zenyatta and settling Arrogate, in the back of the pack, after a bad break in the Dubai.
Mike Smith is confirmed on Girvin as of last week.
They've name Florent Geroux on Hence. He also drilled another big work over the CH main again today.
Oaks horses that I caught out on the track were Salty and Miss Sky Warrior and the later really impressed me and might just be my Oaks pick come next Friday.
I've said that here before. Not a fan of the guy's Derby procedures, but I do think he has the best horse this time. As things turn out, not a bad foundation either (which is unusual for a Pletcher type).