Kentucky Derby Future Wager
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Well, it's that time of year again. Round One of Churchill Downs' pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager is upon us. As usual, there are 23 individual betting interests, and a 24th entry consisting of "All Others".
2008 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1
NO. HORSE ODDS
1. Anak Nakal 20-1
2. Blackberry Road 20-1
3. Bob Black Jack 50-1
4. Colonel John 30-1
5. Court Vision 12-1
6. Cowboy Cal 20-1
7. Crown of Thorns 20-1
8. Denis of Cork 30-1
9. El Gato Malo 15-1
10. Etched 15-1
11. Georgie Boy 20-1
12. Giant Moon 20-1
13. Into Mischief 20-1
14. Majestic Warrior 15-1
15. Monba 30-1
16. Pyro 12-1
17. Signature Move 50-1
18. Smooth Air 20-1
19. Tale of Ekati 20-1
20. War Pass 12-1
21. Yankee Bravo 20-1
22. Z Fortune 20-1
23. Z Humor 15-1
24. Mutuel Field "All Others" 5-2
For the record, Battaglia and Churchill Downs oughta be ashamed of themselves with this morning line. If anyone believes that any of these horses (let alone 3 of them) have a 1-in-12 chance of winning the Kentucky Derby with three months to go, then i have some swampland in Florida i'd like to sell you.
In fact, Battaglia/Churchill would have you believe that 18 of the 23 individual horses listed here have a 1-in-20 chance or better. That's including a few horses who haven't even made their 3yo debuts yet. Aside from the opportunity to lock up two-thirds of the raceday field with a bet on "All Others", these pari-mutuel Derby futures are a complete joke.
Regarding the favorite, i think War Pass has very little chance to win the Derby. He's an exceptionally fast colt, as we all know, but his lone two-turn win came over a sealed, sloppy track that was playing like a conveyor belt. It proves nothing, with regard to the Derby anyway. Moreover, he appears to be a speed-crazy sort, which is a huge problem in the Derby. Once every blue moon a horse will come along and wire the Derby field, but banking on it to happen in any given year is flat-out foolish. Far more often, horses who get used on the Derby pace will fry like an egg and start moving backwards by midstretch. You could offer me 100/1 on War Pass right now, and i wouldn't take it. Truth be told, i don't think there's a single horse in the country right now who rates better than a 75/1 chance (or thereabouts). That will change in the weeks ahead, but right now that's how i feel.
So if you're planning to bet into this pool, my recommendation would be to take the "All Others" entry. It looks especially appealing this year, with very few horses among the list of 23 showing top-tier quality around two turns. That makes it even more likely than usual that some late bloomers will come to the fore this year and challenge for favoritism on Derby Day, much as Curlin did last year.
Regarding the listed contenders, Yankee Bravo appears most likely to offer reasonable odds, since she's showing some very low Beyer figures and won't be getting any healines this weekend. I've seen both of his American starts, and he unquestionably has a lot of talent. The slow final times of his races can't be held against him, as he comes from well off the pace, and has been hampered by traffic problems in both starts. That being said, his late-running style may work against him in the Derby (should he get there), due to the gigantic field and the notorious traffic problems it creates every year. The colt does have merit however, and he's worth a look at triple-digits.
2008 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1
NO. HORSE ODDS
1. Anak Nakal 20-1
2. Blackberry Road 20-1
3. Bob Black Jack 50-1
4. Colonel John 30-1
5. Court Vision 12-1
6. Cowboy Cal 20-1
7. Crown of Thorns 20-1
8. Denis of Cork 30-1
9. El Gato Malo 15-1
10. Etched 15-1
11. Georgie Boy 20-1
12. Giant Moon 20-1
13. Into Mischief 20-1
14. Majestic Warrior 15-1
15. Monba 30-1
16. Pyro 12-1
17. Signature Move 50-1
18. Smooth Air 20-1
19. Tale of Ekati 20-1
20. War Pass 12-1
21. Yankee Bravo 20-1
22. Z Fortune 20-1
23. Z Humor 15-1
24. Mutuel Field "All Others" 5-2
For the record, Battaglia and Churchill Downs oughta be ashamed of themselves with this morning line. If anyone believes that any of these horses (let alone 3 of them) have a 1-in-12 chance of winning the Kentucky Derby with three months to go, then i have some swampland in Florida i'd like to sell you.
In fact, Battaglia/Churchill would have you believe that 18 of the 23 individual horses listed here have a 1-in-20 chance or better. That's including a few horses who haven't even made their 3yo debuts yet. Aside from the opportunity to lock up two-thirds of the raceday field with a bet on "All Others", these pari-mutuel Derby futures are a complete joke.
Regarding the favorite, i think War Pass has very little chance to win the Derby. He's an exceptionally fast colt, as we all know, but his lone two-turn win came over a sealed, sloppy track that was playing like a conveyor belt. It proves nothing, with regard to the Derby anyway. Moreover, he appears to be a speed-crazy sort, which is a huge problem in the Derby. Once every blue moon a horse will come along and wire the Derby field, but banking on it to happen in any given year is flat-out foolish. Far more often, horses who get used on the Derby pace will fry like an egg and start moving backwards by midstretch. You could offer me 100/1 on War Pass right now, and i wouldn't take it. Truth be told, i don't think there's a single horse in the country right now who rates better than a 75/1 chance (or thereabouts). That will change in the weeks ahead, but right now that's how i feel.
So if you're planning to bet into this pool, my recommendation would be to take the "All Others" entry. It looks especially appealing this year, with very few horses among the list of 23 showing top-tier quality around two turns. That makes it even more likely than usual that some late bloomers will come to the fore this year and challenge for favoritism on Derby Day, much as Curlin did last year.
Regarding the listed contenders, Yankee Bravo appears most likely to offer reasonable odds, since she's showing some very low Beyer figures and won't be getting any healines this weekend. I've seen both of his American starts, and he unquestionably has a lot of talent. The slow final times of his races can't be held against him, as he comes from well off the pace, and has been hampered by traffic problems in both starts. That being said, his late-running style may work against him in the Derby (should he get there), due to the gigantic field and the notorious traffic problems it creates every year. The colt does have merit however, and he's worth a look at triple-digits.
Comments
For fun I'm going to put small wagers down on:
Tale of Ekati
Into Mischief
Monba
Grace Anatomy (Oaks, depending on her performance Sunday)