A look ahead to the Breeders Cup
DiscreetCat
Moderator
I'll be profiling horses for the purpose of Breeders Cup futures, and i guess i'll keep everything in this same thread. Any prices mentioned will be from the current Wynn sheet.
CLASSIC
FB mentioned Heatseeker the other day, and i'm inclined to agree. He's clearly a major contender, as he's proven effective over the course and distance, and against top-level stakes competition. Regarding the surface, the current Santa Anita surface is largely Pro-Ride already, so i think it's somewhat safe to factor that in. I wouldn't be surprised to see his form go south at Del Mar however, as he clearly had some problems there last year. Reportedly, they plan on watering the surface this year, so perhaps that will change things. Impossible to say.
Unfortunately, he's listed at a ridiculous 4/1 right now, so there's no value available. Not even close. This is the big problem with Breeders Cup futures in recent years; the prices being offered are like highway robbery. That's why i've been largely abstaining in recent years. Sometimes horses will fall through the cracks, and you can find good prices. But they're much fewer and farther bewteen these days.
Another horse i had some interest in for the Classic was Georgie Boy. I thought he was the best young colt in California earlier this year, and he really looked sharp when stretched out in distance. He seems to relish the surface (again, that's subject to change with the new Pro-Ride installation), and i don't see any reason why he wouldn't continue to stretch out well. All that being said, he's being listed @ 25/1 right now. That's absurd. This is a colt who has never raced beyond 1 1/16 miles, has never faced older horses, was injured several months ago, and hasn't had a recorded workout since. For all that, you get 25/1 five months before the race. No thank you. What price would interest me? At this point, i'd be looking for something around 75/1.
CLASSIC
FB mentioned Heatseeker the other day, and i'm inclined to agree. He's clearly a major contender, as he's proven effective over the course and distance, and against top-level stakes competition. Regarding the surface, the current Santa Anita surface is largely Pro-Ride already, so i think it's somewhat safe to factor that in. I wouldn't be surprised to see his form go south at Del Mar however, as he clearly had some problems there last year. Reportedly, they plan on watering the surface this year, so perhaps that will change things. Impossible to say.
Unfortunately, he's listed at a ridiculous 4/1 right now, so there's no value available. Not even close. This is the big problem with Breeders Cup futures in recent years; the prices being offered are like highway robbery. That's why i've been largely abstaining in recent years. Sometimes horses will fall through the cracks, and you can find good prices. But they're much fewer and farther bewteen these days.
Another horse i had some interest in for the Classic was Georgie Boy. I thought he was the best young colt in California earlier this year, and he really looked sharp when stretched out in distance. He seems to relish the surface (again, that's subject to change with the new Pro-Ride installation), and i don't see any reason why he wouldn't continue to stretch out well. All that being said, he's being listed @ 25/1 right now. That's absurd. This is a colt who has never raced beyond 1 1/16 miles, has never faced older horses, was injured several months ago, and hasn't had a recorded workout since. For all that, you get 25/1 five months before the race. No thank you. What price would interest me? At this point, i'd be looking for something around 75/1.
Comments
Personally, i think they're passing up a golden opportunity by not running her in the Hollywood Gold Cup this weekend. I suppose they're trying to keep her seperated from her barnmate Tiago, who has been pointed to the Gold Cup for a while now.
Agree she is on the same level as Tiago or IMO better at this point. This weekends HW Goldcup is lacking start power as Heatseeker ought to crush the filed. I have never been a big fan of Tiago and I can tell you he ran one helluva race at Oaklawn when nosing out Heatseeker. But he seems to be a different horse on the sticky stuff. I really though after winning at Oaklawn he would of shown up on Derby weekend at Churchill.
FB
PS - I just checked on Ginger Brew's status, and she is not nominated. Her connections would have to fork over a large supplemental fee. That for the pleasure of running against Zenyatta, or so it would appear.
The other Breeders Cup favorite who ran at Hollywood this weekend was the outstanding sprinter Street Boss. He won again in the 7-furlong Triple Bend Handicap, running his win streak to 4. But like Zenyatta, Street Boss also appeared to be faltering a bit late. And again, that appears backed up by his snail-like final furlong of 14.12 seconds. What does that mean? Well, it could mean that Street Boss isn't suited to 7 furlongs. That seems unlikely though, especially considering the powerful kick he's shown at the end of several 6.5 furlong races. It's hard to believe an extra sixteenth would make that much difference.
Let's look at these two races together though. Run on the same card, both Zenyatta AND Street Boss post very slow final furlongs? And yet, both still win? It may be that the Hollywood surface was simply running very slow in the furlong leading up to the wire. To me, when both of these horses do it, it seems like too much of a coincidence.
As you may already know, this is an undefeated (4-for-4) filly from the Gilchrist barn in Northern California. She just shipped over to Calder for the Azalea Stakes (on the Summit of Speed card) and ran signifigantly faster than Benny The Bull ran on the same card. She also has an impressive win on synthetic, a nice added plus with the BC being run over Pro-Ride. You can view her Azalea win @ Bloodhorse.com, or perhaps Cal Racing (i haven't checked). Incidentally, she's headed straight to Saratoga to run in the Test Stakes. This filly arguably should be the favorite for the Filly & Mare Sprint right now. Big value @ 40/1.
Immediately after undefeated 3-year-old filly Indyanne dominated the Grade 3, $250,000 Azalea Stakes on July 12 at Calder Race Course, trainer Greg Gilchrist said he would like to run her in next Saturday's Grade 1, $250,000 Test Stakes at Saratoga. But when nominations came out for the Test Stakes earlier this week, Indyanne wasn't among them.
"We decided against that," Gilchrist said. "When we got her home, she seemed a little tired. It was very tempting, and we really wanted to go there, but we'd probably be risking the rest of the year with her if things didn't work out."
Indyanne won her four starts by a combined 32 1/2 lengths, but she certainly would have received a challenge in the Test Stakes from Indian Blessing, the 2-year-old filly champion of 2007 who has six wins (three in Grade 1 events) and two seconds in eight starts.
Now Indyanne will train at Golden Gate Fields but probably will make it to Saratoga for the Grade 3, $100,000-added Victory Ride Stakes on Aug. 23. "It's very possible we'll show up in that race," Gilchrist said. "It's a Grade 3, not a Grade 1, and it's $100,000 instead of $250,000. It really doesn't have anything to do with the race itself. I wish the two races were inverted, because then we'd run in the bigger race.
It makes no difference which horse wins the race. The track has to pay "everyone" regardless.
LOL
I understand why Gilchrist does this every year. The man can certainly read a conditioning book and places his stars well.......but as far as the BC is concerned, wouldn't you like to see her face a field of older horses in something other than a OC/N2X rather than beating up on 3YO fillies in these type of stakes?
He hasn't challenged her on a syn surface (not counting that OPC as a challenge) or against older, but that's exactly what she'll be facing on BC Friday. I like when trainers take their time. I like when they don't rush their stock, but he goes overboard w/ his stars. He could stay right at home and race against older horses and on the syn surface as preparation for the BC.
Again, I can't abuse him too hard for what he does. However, if this horse continues on this exact course of 3YO only dirt stakes going into the BC, I'll take a big stance against.
What she hasn't shown is that she can handle extended pace pressure, and/or multiple challenges during the course of a race. The kind of problems she'll likely face in the Breeders Cup (assuming she gets there).
Btw, my primary concern a few weeks ago was that Gilchrist had originally stated that Indyanne was shipping straight to Saratoga (from Calder) for the Test Stakes, because there were only 3 weeks between races. Then he pulled out of the Test, saying that Indyanne "looked a little tired" when she got back to California. Those two statements contradict each other; what was she doing back in California? I think perhaps she ran into a small problem after the Azalea. Also note that ther's an 11-day gap in her drills from Aug 3 to Aug 14, which looks quite different from the spacing of her drills heading into the Azalea. I dunno, i've gotta think she's 100% now if Gilchrist is following through and shipping her cross-country, but i do find her post-Calder goings-on rather curious. Looking forward to seeing her run tomorrow.
from Bloodhorse:
Favored Whatsthescript got the fast pace he was looking for and unleashed an eye-catching move down the center of the stretch to capture the $328,000 Del Mar Mile Handicap (gr. IIT) by three-quarters of a length on the grass Aug. 24.
Garrett Gomez, Eclipse Award-winning jockey of 2007 who would cap a superb weekend with a victory in the $1-million Pacific Classic (gr. I) in the next race, guided the 4-year-old Irish-bred colt by Royal Applause to victory over Bold Chieftain. The latter finished a game second by a neck over 29-1 shot Global Hunter.
Daytona, who prompted a swift pace with Storm Military (:22.51, :46.06, 1:09.1), finished fourth, while Monzante launched a belated bid to take fifth in the field of nine.
Whatsthescript earns a spot in the Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. IT), since this race was a "Win and You're In" qualifying event for the Oct. 25 championship festival at Santa Anita. However, the winner is not eligible and thus would have to be supplemented.
"I wanted to wait as long as I could, but the horses behind me were making their moves and I had to go," Gomez said." When I first asked him, he took a stride or two to pick it up. But then he got to going and changing his gears and he really went. This horse has a kick, I'll tell you. A real kick."
John Sadler, picking up his seventh stakes win at the Del Mar stand, trains Whatsthescript for Tommy Town Thoroughbreds.
"This is really a great horse," said Sadler, who is also the meet's leading trainer. "He's one of the true horses that I've ever had that I think is a grade I horse. What made us so happy was that fast pace in front of him. When they went :22 and :46 (for the opening half-mile), I knew we were in good shape."
The winner ran the distance over the infield Jimmy Durante Turf Course in a fast 1:32.40, just .19 off the course record, and returned $6, $3.40, and $2.80. Bold Chieftain, ridden by Russell Baze for trainer Bill Morey Jr., returned $6.40 and $4.60, while Global Hunter paid $8 to show.
"Through the lane my horse was digging in hard and I was getting into him hard, asking him for all he was worth," Baze said of the runner-up. "He gave me everything he had."
Jockey Jose Valdivia Jr., who rode Global Hunter, claimed foul after the race against the first two horses. However, the stewards quickly disallowed the claim after viewing a videotape of the stretch run.
Whatsthescript, runner-up to Monzante in the nine-furlong Eddie Read Handicap (gr. IT) July 20, earned his sixth victory in a dozen starts. First money of $180,000 increased the horse's earnings to $597,734. Whatsthescript won the American Handicap (gr. IIT) at Hollywood Park two starts back.
Sadler won the Del Mar Mile last year with Crossing the Line.
Stoneside, Porto Santo, Storm Military, and One Union completed the order of finish.
Well, Avello had listed a total of 61 juveniles on the sheet, and Capt. Candyman Can was left completely off the list. Horses that WERE included on the list ranged all the way up to Cognito @ 75/1. So i went back down there this morning (Monday, 9/8) to try and get Capt. Candyman Can added to the list, and i had it in my mind that i was willing to take anything 25/1 or higher. So i ask for John, and apparently he was just there a second ago, and i missed him.
So a supervisor had me write the name down and she called up to the office and gave it to him, and then she hung up and told me it would be "at least an hour". I couldn't afford to stand there waiting for God-Knows-How-Long, so i left and came back later. When i returned, the Juvenile sheet was updated to include Capt. Candyman Can, with today's date (Monday, 9/8).
You know what price he was listed at??? 10/1. That's right, ten-to-fucking-one. Because someone (me perhaps, i don't know) showed some interest in betting the horse, he went from being completely unlisted in a group of 61 to being the third-choice on the sheet. A 5.5-furlong maiden winner who hasn't run since Aug 13 and only has two workouts since then, one at some obscure training center.
This isn't the first time Avello has done this to me in recent years, though it's definitely the most extreme example. I feel violated, because there's no other place to turn for Juvenile futures. I simply can't bet the horse now. Real fair.
Years ago, i used to get excited when a horse that i liked was unlisted, because i knew i could get a good price. Nowadays, i hate it, because i know what's coming. I get low-balled and i can't bet. That's how Avello does business these days. He even gets the benefit of me bringing the horse to his attention, because apparently he had no clue who he was until i brought it up. Nice work, John. Thanks for nothing.
Anyway, the reason i like Capt. Candyman Can was that he looked fantastic stalking an extremely fast pace while in hand, then took the lead and kicked away when finally asked to run. His time was considerably faster than fellow 2yo Mani Bhavan ran in the Adirondack Stakes later on the card, though you'd never know it from their Beyer figures. Mani Bhavan (1:18. 09) was given a 100 Beyer, while Capt. Candyman Can (1:03.56) was given an 87. Probably because the stakes horses were "supposed" to run faster. Never mind what actually happened on the racetrack, lol.
ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, Ill. - The 2-year-old gelding Capt. Candyman Can paid more than $40 when he won a maiden race in his career debut, but in Saturday's Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity, Capt. Candyman Can will be a much shorter price.
A blowout win over straight maidens at Saratoga will have that effect. One of just 12 horses that trainer Ian Wilkes shipped from Kentucky to New York for the challenging competition there, Capt. Candyman Can debuted on Aug. 13 at the Spa with a noteworthy result. Racing well behind a scalding early pace in a 5 1/2-furlong race, Capt. Candyman Can whistled off the turn and drew rapidly away from the other five horses in the race, opening up a lead of more than seven lengths at the finish.
"I definitely thought he could run some," said trainer Ian Wilkes. "That's why we took him up there."
Wilkes did not believe Capt. Candyman Can would have been ready for the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes less than three weeks later. So, instead of running back at Saratoga, Wilkes took Capt. Candyman Can back home to the Skylight Training Center in Kentucky, where Capt. Candyman Can breezed five furlongs Monday. Capt. Candyman Can was scheduled to ship to Arlington on Wednesday, and will get a couple of training days over the Arlington surface before lining up for the one-mile Futurity.
Wilkes has worked for years with trainer Carl Nafzger, whose habit is to bring young horses along at a measured pace.
"My style, like Carl, is I'm not trying to win first time out," Wilkes said. "If they do, they're doing it on their own. This horse did a lot of things right in his race. He was very professional."
Capt. Candyman Can is a son of the Argentine horse Candy Ride, and out of a mare by Storm Creek, a pedigree that suggests a one-turn mile should be well within his scope.
Arlington racing officials are expecting a large field for the Futurity, which was to be drawn on Wednesday.
12 hole and 5/2 morning line...not the best of things.
"I had the best horse three weeks ago and I got beat, so you still have to run them," Gilchrist said. "I don't think any less of her because she got beat. We're looking at a race on the East Coast for her, and there is a possibility of running her in the Breeders' Cup, but we have to see how everything shakes out."
Hystericalady in the Distaff/Ladie's Classic? Wouldn't be a huge shock, i do think she's a deserving second-choice behind Zenyatta. Whether she goes off as second choice, who knows. The Godolphin filly Music Note is very popular, and might take more money at the windows.
FB
If she wins at six furlongs Saturday at Keeneland, California-based speedster Indyanne might set the pace Oct. 24 in the seven-furlong Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint.
But trainer Greg Gilchrist cautioned Indyanne must run well in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes before he commits to the Breeders' Cup.
"If she doesn't win, she'd have to have a pretty big excuse," Gilchrist said.
Indyanne had an excuse when she lost for the first time Aug. 23 at Saratoga. Favored at 2-5 in the Grade 3 Victory Ride, she lunged, steadied and was away last, rushed to the front, battled to deep stretch, and tired to second.
"I think we ran the best horse, and should have won," Gilchrist said.
The gate mishap was unexpected from a filly whose four previous starts produced blowout wins by an average of eight lengths, including a 108 Beyer Speed Figure on July 12 at Calder.
Gilchrist realizes he would face a formidable rival in the Breeders' Cup.
"The filly of Bob's is probably a standout," he said, referring to the Bob Baffert-trained Indian Blessing.
Indian Blessing is scheduled for her first Pro-Ride workout this weekend at Santa Anita, Baffert said.
* Dearest Trickski, the top filly sprinter this summer in California, worked six furlongs Wednesday at Hollywood Park in 1:15. Three-time Grade 1 winner Intangaroo worked five furlongs at Hollywood in 1:00.40.
* Ventura, a Grade 1 turf winner and runner-up vs. males Sept. 7 in the Woodbine Mile, is likely to return to synthetic for the Filly and Mare Sprint, according to trainer Bobby Frankel. "Seven-eighths might be perfect for her," Frankel said.
Ventura already won a seven-furlong race on synthetic - the Grade 2 Madison on April 9 at Keeneland.
* Despite a dull third in the Pine Tree Lane Stakes last Sunday, Magnificience remains likely for the Filly and Mare Sprint.
"She appears not to like this track," trainer Bruce Headley said, hoping she benefits from more distance. Magnificience spun her wheels going 6 1/2 furlongs Sunday in her first start on Pro-Ride.
* Tiz Elemental, runner-up in the Pine Tree Lane, also will move on to the Filly and Mare Sprint, trainer Carla Gaines confirmed.
* Mistical Plan, winner of the Win and You're In Grade 1 Princess Rooney on July 12 at Calder, is out of the Breeder's Cup with a splint injury. Trainer Doug O'Neill said she would resume training in a few weeks.
Indyanne scored a sharp win @ Keeneland on Saturday, running 6 furlongs in 1:08 2/5, just one tick off the track record. Appears to be heading for the Breeders Cup F&M Sprint, where i'm guessing she'll start somewhere in the neighborhood of 5/1.