Pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool 1) opens Thursday

DiscreetCat

from Bloodhorse:

Churchill Downs’ 2009 Kentucky Derby Future Wager begins its 11th year when the first of its three betting pools opens Feb. 12. And for the 11th time with the first pool, the mutuel field, or “all others,” is the morning line betting favorite.

Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia has installed the “all others” interest as the 5-2 favorite in Pool 1, which opens at noon (all times EST) Feb. 12 and concludes at 6 p.m. Feb. 15. Fans often opt for the “all others” bet rather than make a commitment to an individual horse so early in the Derby campaign and this year’s group of contenders seems more wide-open than most.

Among individual horses, Fox Hill Farm’s Old Fashioned, winner of last fall’s Remsen (gr. II) at Aqueduct, and Joseph Rauch and David Zell’s Capt. Candyman Can, winner of the recent Hutcheson (gr. II) at Gulfstream Park and the Iroquois (gr. III) at Churchill Downs, are co-favored individual interests in Battaglia’s morning line at 10-1. Old Fashioned is slated to run in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) at Oaklawn Park Feb. 16, or the day after Pool 1 closes.

That duo is followed by a closely-matched group of young stars at 12-1 that includes 2008 2-year-old champion and Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) winner Midshipman; Stardom Bound, the only filly among the individual betting interests and last year’s champion 2-year-old of her gender; Lecomte (gr. III) winner Friesan Fire, who more recently claimed the Feb. 7 Risen Star Stakes (gr. III); CashCall Futurity (gr. I) winner Pioneerof the Nile, who just took the Feb. 7 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II); Champagne (gr. I) winner Vineyard Haven; and This Ones for Phil, winner of the Sunshine Millions Dash. This Ones For Phil is the lone member of Pool 1 that is not yet nominated to the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown.

Kentucky Derby fans will be hoping for a generous return on their wager in the Feb. 12-15 pool that would rival the opening pool of 2003, which saw Derby winner Funny Cide return $188 for a $2 Derby Future bet in Pool 1. The Sackatoga Stable star paid only $27.60 for a $2 win bet on Kentucky Derby Day.

Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is a $2 minimum wager and a “win” bet only.

KDFW Pool 2 is scheduled for March 12-15 and the third and final pool will be conducted April 2-5.

Betting interests in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools are selected by a panel that includes Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form national handicapper; Brad Free, West Coast correspondent for the Daily Racing Form; and John Asher, vice president of racing communications at Churchill Downs.

Real-time odds on Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager are available on the official Kentucky Derby Web site at Kentucky Derby.

2009 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 1 – Feb. 12-15
Number - Wagering Interest -Morning line odds
1 - Beethoven - 15-1
2 - Big Drama - 30-1
3 - Capt. Candyman Can (g) - 10-1
4 - Chocolate Candy - 50-1
5 - Flying Pegasus - 30-1
6 - Friesan Fire - 12-1
7 - Giant Oak - 15-1
8 - Haynesfield - 50-1
9 - Hello Broadway - 50-1
10 - I Want Revenge - 50-1
11 - Midshipman - 12-1
12 - Notonthesamepage - 30-1
13 - Old Fashioned - 10-1
14 - Papa Clem - 20-1
15 - Patena - 20-1
16 - Pioneerof the Nile - 12-1
17 - Silver City - 50-1
18 - Stardom Bound (f) - 12-1
19 - Taqarub - 30-1
20 - The Pamplemousse - 30-1
21 - This Ones For Phil (g)* - 12-1
22 - Vineyard Haven - 12-1
23 - West Side Bernie - 50-1
24 - Mutuel Field (“All Others”) - 5-2
(f) – filly (g) – gelding * – Not nominated to Triple Crown

DiscreetCat

rayphil

I love that pic CAT....30-1 ill take it.

Unknown

D.C. dont no your view but in my opinion future bets are real sucker bets...the true value versus the risk arent even close in my mind....i prefer the prop bets offered in most racebooks sometimes they have some good value props....OH well the owners and breeders have destroyed this game anyway as we never get to see these horses run after they win a leg of the triple crown...come to think of it i havent seen a real handicap race in about 25 years...shame on them for contributing to the decline of the game...

DUNCO

There Are 13 Dual Qualifiers This Year I Don't Know If That Good Or Bad Never Remember That Many Three Bombs In The Future I Want Revenge Big Drama And West Side Bernie All Dual Qualifiers

FlyinLate

DiscreetCat wrote: »

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2009 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 1 – Feb. 12-15
Number - Wagering Interest -Morning line odds

3 - Capt. Candyman Can (g) - 10-1
9 - Hello Broadway - 50-1

WTF? Explain to me how Capt. Candyman Can is 10-1 while Hello Broadway is 50-1. Battaglia is acting like he CRUSHED Hello Broadway :x-huh:

I don't play many future wagers but I'll watch the pools and will play the following for a few bucks.
Hello Broadway > 45-1
The Pamplemousse > 25-1
Giant Oak > 18-1
Also, if for some reason Stardom Bound doesn't take any money (which i highly doubt) she'll get a small play.

DiscreetCat

GAMBLER911 wrote: »

D.C. dont no your view but in my opinion future bets are real sucker bets...the true value versus the risk arent even close in my mind....i prefer the prop bets offered in most racebooks sometimes they have some good value props....OH well the owners and breeders have destroyed this game anyway as we never get to see these horses run after they win a leg of the triple crown...come to think of it i havent seen a real handicap race in about 25 years...shame on them for contributing to the decline of the game...

I like futures a lot (particularly Breeders Cup futures), but you're 100% right about these pari-mutuel Derby pools. They're a complete disgrace.

Flyin Late mentions Capt. Candyman Can being listed @ 10/1. Think about that for a second. We're still three months away from the race, and Churchill Downs is suggesting that a horse who has ZERO wins around two turns has a 1-in-10 chance of winning the Derby??? And it's not just him; there are EIGHT horses being listed @ 12/1 or less. One of those is a filly.

Flyin Late, you make an excellent point regarding CCC/Hello Broadway. Even if CCC did crush him in the Hutcheson, what does that prove (with regard to the 1 1/4 mile Derby three months down the line)? It was a simple comeback race @ 7 furlongs. If Hello Broaway had falied to fire at all, it would make some sense. But that wasn't the case at all.

I posted the Pamplemousse pic because he's popular with several guys in here, including myself. And i'm amazed that he's listed as one of the longest shots the board here. That's not to suggest that 30/1 is a good price though (it's not). I wouldn't bet him at that price, not this far out.

I realize however that most of you guys don't live in Vegas, so this is the only chance you get. I respect that. I just wish that Churchill would include all 400-something horses in the wager. Then you might be able to find a price or two. The way it's set up now, the only value lies with the field entry (and sometimes not even then).

PS - It's my understanding taht there will only be one Kentucky Oaks future this year. I believe it'll held during Pool 2.

FlyinLate

DiscreetCat wrote: »

I like futures a lot (particularly Breeders Cup futures), but you're 100% right about these pari-mutuel Derby pools. They're a complete disgrace.

Flyin Late mentions Capt. Candyman Can being listed @ 10/1. Think about that for a second. We're still three months away from the race, and Churchill Downs is suggesting that a horse who has ZERO wins around two turns has a 1-in-10 chance of winning the Derby??? And it's not just him; there are EIGHT horses being listed @ 12/1 or less. One of those is a filly.

Flyin Late, you make an excellent point regarding CCC/Hello Broadway. Even if CCC did crush him in the Hutcheson, what does that prove (with regard to the 1 1/4 mile Derby three months down the line)? It was a simple comeback race @ 7 furlongs. If Hello Broaway had falied to fire at all, it would make some sense. But that wasn't the case at all.

I posted the Pamplemousse pic because he's popular with several guys in here, including myself. And i'm amazed that he's listed as one of the longest shots the board here. That's not to suggest that 30/1 is a good price though (it's not). I wouldn't bet him at that price, not this far out.

I realize however that most of you guys don't live in Vegas, so this is the only chance you get. I respect that. I just wish that Churchill would include all 400-something horses in the wager. Then you might be able to find a price or two. The way it's set up now, the only value lies with the field entry (and sometimes not even then).

PS - It's my understanding taht there will only be one Kentucky Oaks future this year. I believe it'll held during Pool 2.

Thanks DC. As you said in your post, with me being in Chicago, this is my only true opportunity at future wagers. I don't endorse future wagers as a means of making any kind of money but support them as a fun wager. I throw $5 or so on 2-3 of my favorite horses throughout the futures to watch them progress and follow them throughout the trail. If they do happen to progress nicely and the price drops down for derby day, great. If they get injured or plummet, its spare money worth the entertainment factor alone. Spot out what little overlays you can and throw some side cash on it, but whatever you do don't break the bankroll!

Good luck to everyone in their future pools! I've never cashed one on anything but an "all others" bet.

peacerules

In My Opinion The Best Bet On There Is Choclate Candy At 50/1 Ill Take Some Of That. I Like Giant Oak To And Like The Race Pioneer Of The Nile Ran. We Will See Down The Rd But I Love The Pedigree On Choclate Candy For The Derby.

DiscreetCat

Chocolate Candy does have the look of a nice one. He was flattered by Pioneerof the Nile last weekend, also.

FlyinLate

peacerules wrote: »

In My Opinion The Best Bet On There Is Choclate Candy At 50/1 Ill Take Some Of That. I Like Giant Oak To And Like The Race Pioneer Of The Nile Ran. We Will See Down The Rd But I Love The Pedigree On Choclate Candy For The Derby.

I was the biggest critic of Pioneerof the Nile after the CashCall as I thought it was a horribly weak race. I ate my words after Nile's run there. I was very impressed to say the least.

And yes, that should flatter Chocolate Candy as well.


DC, do you know where both Chocolate Candy and The Pamplemousse are geared toward next?

DUNCO

NO DIS-RESPECT BUT DO YOU GUYS HAVE BLINKERS ON I THINK THE BIG BOYS OVER SEAS WILL HAVE SOMETHING TO SAY IN THIS DERBY; LIKE THEY DID IN THE LAST BREEDERS CUP AND AGAIN THERE WILL BE 20 NUT CASES IN THE GATE. AND WHAT IF IT RAINS OH! THAT DERBY MUD!!:wonder:

peacerules

dunco do u have blinkers on no horse has ever done it .SO WE WILL C IF THEY CAN I WILL BET IT IS NOT MIDSHIPMAN OR THE FRANKEL COLT HE SOLD THEM FOR 12,000,000 DOLLARS IS A JOKE.

DiscreetCat

Interesting to note that Dettori has opted to ride Desert Party today, rather than Vineyard Haven.

Peacerules, The Pamplemousse is being pointed to the Sham. He just worked 5 furlongs in 58 and change, btw. I haven't heard anything about Chocolate Candy.

peacerules

He Is Going In The El Camino Real Derby This Weekend Dc.

peacerules

Hey Dc Captain Cherokee Is In The 8th Race At The Fgs Going A 1/1/16 Should Run Well I Think .

peacerules

I Will Say This If Vineyard Haven Wins The Derby I Will Be Suprised He Has Awful Action On Him .i Think The Only Contender Goldphin Has Is Desert Party I Saw Him Break His Mdn At Arlington In His First Start By Street Cry The Farther The Better .

FlyinLate

peacerules wrote: »

I Will Say This If Vineyard Haven Wins The Derby I Will Be Suprised He Has Awful Action On Him .i Think The Only Contender Goldphin Has Is Desert Party I Saw Him Break His Mdn At Arlington In His First Start By Street Cry The Farther The Better .

He looked awful at Dubai today. Desert Party continues to impress me as well. We'll see how he looks when he comes back overseas. I'm not liking these 3yo preps in Dubai.

DUNCO

Thanks Guys I Like The Input. But We Did Lose A Lot Of Top Breeders About 5-6 Ago. And You Know Everybody Has A Bulleye On Racing In The Us Of A

peacerules

Hey Dc Free Country In The Sam Davis At Tampa Sat Wander Why Mcpeek Went To Tampa .

rayphil

Peace rules..If im not mistaking I believe the Sam F Davis is graded now. So now you have the davis and tampa bay derby that is graded down there......Maybe he wants a easy prep or some easy garded money.

DiscreetCat

McPeek has stated that he thinks Free Country will appreciate the Tampa Bay surface. And as Rayphil mentioned, it's graded this year. Plus, he wanted to keep Free Country and Danger to Society seperated (Danger to Society recently ran in the Holly Bull).

The Sam Davis has been Free Country's target ever since he came out of that allowance race; nothing out of the ordinary here.

peacerules

Accept They Gave Danger To Society To Dutrow