KDFW analysis (from two very different perspectives)
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Thought this would make for an interesting post. Dirtyshirt posted this article by Ellis Starr on another site, and i followed with my response:
Eight is Great: KDFW Pool 1 analysis
Ellis Starr, Equibase.com 2/11/2009
The Kentucky Derby 135 is still nearly three months away as we look at our wagering opportunities in Pool 1 of the 2009 Kentucky Derby Future Wager. Even though there are a lot of things that can go right (or wrong) between now and the first Saturday in May, there appear to be many reasons, eight at the least, to put a few bucks down in this first future wager pool. As with any wager, value is the key - a concept otherwise known as a risk-to-reward ratio. The theory in making a wager at this time of the year is that we should not be looking as much for the winner of the Kentucky Derby but rather we should be looking to lock in some good odds in hopes of getting a return we cannot possibly get in the Kentucky Derby itself.
With that in mind, eight individual betting interests have been selected to consider for wagering in Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1, along with their starting odds and the minimum odds at which I would consider a wager. Please note: I am wary of horses that are likely to run over the weekend the wager is offered, the reason being that if they run well their odds will likely drop below any meaningful threshold that makes a wager worthwhile whereas if they run poorly I would not likely want to wager on them at this stage anyway. Included among the betting options for the first time in recent years is #24 All Other Three-Year-Olds because there are just so many good horses with Kentucky Derby potential contained in that group. However, the real goal when wagering into this pool is to make a profit, hopefully akin to the $188 that Funny Cide returned for a $2 wager in 2003 from Pool 1.
#15 Patena Starting Odds 20/1 Fair Odds 5/1 Patena put together back-to-back 102 EquibaseÒ Speed Figures winning the Display Stakes at Woodbine in December then finishing second to Friesan Fire in the LeComte Stakes. Having skipped the recent Risen Star Stakes, Patenas next race is expected to be the Louisiana Derby on March 14. Patena is bred to handle the one and one-quarter mile distance of the Kentucky Derby and then some as a son of Seeking the Gold out of an A.P. Indy mare. Having won a two-turn race as a two-year-old gives Patena a solid foundation for his three-year-old campaign, so this colt figures to be prominent the rest of the way on the Road to the Triple Crown.
#16 Pioneerof the Nile Starting Odds 12/1 Fair Odds 5/1 Despite trainer Bob Bafferts comments that Pioneerof the Nile did not need to win the recent Robert B. Lewis Stakes, the colt demonstrated an eye-catching burst of speed in the last one-sixteenth of a mile to win more easily than it will look on paper. As a son of Empire Maker, who finished second in the 2003 Kentucky Derby, Pioneerof the Nile is bred to handle distances much longer than the 10 furlongs of the Derby. Pioneerof the Nile does not need to do much more in the coming months to be one of the favorites in the Derby except to stay in top physical condition, the 110 he earned winning the Lewis being the best 2009 two-turn stakes winning figure in the field.
#18 Stardom Bound Starting Odds 12/1 Fair Odds 5/1 Having been very impressive in winning the Las Virgenes Stakes on February 7 in her first start of 2009, earning a 102 , Stardom Bound could potentially make her next start against males in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4. Considering she earned a 107 figure winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies and with an expectation that in her next start Stardom Bound can surpass that effort and figure, she could have a big impact on her way to the First Saturday in May, whether eventually her connections choose to play it safe and start her in the Kentucky Oaks or attempt to become the fourth filly in history to wear the blanket of roses in the winners circle.
#24 All Other Three-Year-Olds Starting Odds 5/2 Fair Odds 5/2 Simply put, if this other category (also known as the mutual field) of betting interests stays at its starting odds of 5/2 (or higher), Im in. You can call it a saver if you choose but the fact is that the field in pool 1 has won four times in the past 10 years, including last year with Big Brown. This years group includes Bears Rocket, recently second with a 107 to (off the Derby trail) Saratoga Sinner in the Holy Bull Stakes, Smarty Jones Stakes winner Flat Out (100 figure), Risen Star runner-up Flying Pegasus (103), Robert B. Lewis Stakes runner-up and third-place finishers respectively, Papa Clem (109)and I Want Revenge (107), WEBN Stakes winner Parade Clown (105), impressive maiden winner in his first two-turn race Poltergeist (107), a trio training and racing in Dubai consisting of Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman (112), Champagne Stakes winner Vineyard Haven (110) and Sanford Stakes winner Desert Party (94). Last but not least among those of note is Mr. Hot Stuff, a full brother to Colonel John (who finished sixth in last years Derby) which earned an awesome 111 figure winning earlier in February, that figure superior to the 110 Pioneerof the Nile earned winning the Lewis.
#6 Friesan Fire Starting Odds 30/1 Fair Odds 9/1 Earning a new career best 104 winning the Risen Star after taking the LeComte prior to that, Friesan Fire should enter the Louisiana Derby as the strong favorite. Having handled both recent tests with flying colors and with room to improve as the distances increase as a son of A.P. Indy, Friesan Fire could offer tremendous value anywhere near his starting odds of 30 to 1 in pool 1.
#20 The Pamplemousse Starting Odds 30/1 Fair Odds 9/1 Another horse which passed his first major test in a grand way, The Pamplemousse has improved his figure in every start since his debut, going from 98 last fall and progressing to earn a 110 figure leading the San Rafael Stakes Field from start to finish. As a son of Kafwain, runner-up in the 2002 Breeders Cup Juvenile and out of a Rubiano mare, this colt should get even better when he runs a mile and one-eighth in the Santa Anita Derby. He also possesses a tactical running style which means he is capable of running from off the pace in the early stages in spite of his recent wire-to-wire score in the San Rafael. That ability could help him avoid a lot of the traffic pitfalls that overcome many a horse in the full fields to come on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
#3 Capt. Candyman Can Starting Odds 10/1 Fair Odds 9/1 Handled by Ian Wilkes, who was instrumental in Street Senses winning Derby run in 2007, Capt. Candyman Can began his sophomore campaign by winning the seven-furlong Hutcheson Stakes, earning a 101 in the process. Having been victorious in a graded stakes at a mile when taking the Iroquois Stakes last fall, this son of Candy Ride (who retired a perfect six-for-six after winning the mile and one-quarter Pacific Classic Stakes in 2003) should have no issues with running well at the distance of the Derby. Capt. Candyman Can will likely stamp himself a strong Kentucky Derby contender with a big showing in his next scheduled start in the Florida Derby on March 28.
#9 Hello Broadway Starting Odds 50/1 Fair Odds 15/1 A full brother to Nobiz Like Shobiz, winner of the 2007 Wood Memorial before a 10th place finish in the Kentucky Derby, Hello Broadways trainer Barclay Tagg is no stranger to the perils and pitfalls of the Derby trail, having guided Funny Cide to victory in 2003. Having made a splash to start his three-year-old campaign when second to Capt. Candyman Can in the Hutcheson, Hello Broadway now has every right to run back to or to surpass the 107 earned last fall, and therefore deserves at the least a token wager anywhere near his starting 50 to 1 odds.
Ellis Starr not only analyzes a major stakes race every week for the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (ntra.com) and Equibase (equibase.com), he also produces detailed selections and analysis daily for the major circuits around the country, which can be obtained at equibase.com.
Eight is Great: KDFW Pool 1 analysis
Ellis Starr, Equibase.com 2/11/2009
The Kentucky Derby 135 is still nearly three months away as we look at our wagering opportunities in Pool 1 of the 2009 Kentucky Derby Future Wager. Even though there are a lot of things that can go right (or wrong) between now and the first Saturday in May, there appear to be many reasons, eight at the least, to put a few bucks down in this first future wager pool. As with any wager, value is the key - a concept otherwise known as a risk-to-reward ratio. The theory in making a wager at this time of the year is that we should not be looking as much for the winner of the Kentucky Derby but rather we should be looking to lock in some good odds in hopes of getting a return we cannot possibly get in the Kentucky Derby itself.
With that in mind, eight individual betting interests have been selected to consider for wagering in Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1, along with their starting odds and the minimum odds at which I would consider a wager. Please note: I am wary of horses that are likely to run over the weekend the wager is offered, the reason being that if they run well their odds will likely drop below any meaningful threshold that makes a wager worthwhile whereas if they run poorly I would not likely want to wager on them at this stage anyway. Included among the betting options for the first time in recent years is #24 All Other Three-Year-Olds because there are just so many good horses with Kentucky Derby potential contained in that group. However, the real goal when wagering into this pool is to make a profit, hopefully akin to the $188 that Funny Cide returned for a $2 wager in 2003 from Pool 1.
#15 Patena Starting Odds 20/1 Fair Odds 5/1 Patena put together back-to-back 102 EquibaseÒ Speed Figures winning the Display Stakes at Woodbine in December then finishing second to Friesan Fire in the LeComte Stakes. Having skipped the recent Risen Star Stakes, Patenas next race is expected to be the Louisiana Derby on March 14. Patena is bred to handle the one and one-quarter mile distance of the Kentucky Derby and then some as a son of Seeking the Gold out of an A.P. Indy mare. Having won a two-turn race as a two-year-old gives Patena a solid foundation for his three-year-old campaign, so this colt figures to be prominent the rest of the way on the Road to the Triple Crown.
#16 Pioneerof the Nile Starting Odds 12/1 Fair Odds 5/1 Despite trainer Bob Bafferts comments that Pioneerof the Nile did not need to win the recent Robert B. Lewis Stakes, the colt demonstrated an eye-catching burst of speed in the last one-sixteenth of a mile to win more easily than it will look on paper. As a son of Empire Maker, who finished second in the 2003 Kentucky Derby, Pioneerof the Nile is bred to handle distances much longer than the 10 furlongs of the Derby. Pioneerof the Nile does not need to do much more in the coming months to be one of the favorites in the Derby except to stay in top physical condition, the 110 he earned winning the Lewis being the best 2009 two-turn stakes winning figure in the field.
#18 Stardom Bound Starting Odds 12/1 Fair Odds 5/1 Having been very impressive in winning the Las Virgenes Stakes on February 7 in her first start of 2009, earning a 102 , Stardom Bound could potentially make her next start against males in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4. Considering she earned a 107 figure winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies and with an expectation that in her next start Stardom Bound can surpass that effort and figure, she could have a big impact on her way to the First Saturday in May, whether eventually her connections choose to play it safe and start her in the Kentucky Oaks or attempt to become the fourth filly in history to wear the blanket of roses in the winners circle.
#24 All Other Three-Year-Olds Starting Odds 5/2 Fair Odds 5/2 Simply put, if this other category (also known as the mutual field) of betting interests stays at its starting odds of 5/2 (or higher), Im in. You can call it a saver if you choose but the fact is that the field in pool 1 has won four times in the past 10 years, including last year with Big Brown. This years group includes Bears Rocket, recently second with a 107 to (off the Derby trail) Saratoga Sinner in the Holy Bull Stakes, Smarty Jones Stakes winner Flat Out (100 figure), Risen Star runner-up Flying Pegasus (103), Robert B. Lewis Stakes runner-up and third-place finishers respectively, Papa Clem (109)and I Want Revenge (107), WEBN Stakes winner Parade Clown (105), impressive maiden winner in his first two-turn race Poltergeist (107), a trio training and racing in Dubai consisting of Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman (112), Champagne Stakes winner Vineyard Haven (110) and Sanford Stakes winner Desert Party (94). Last but not least among those of note is Mr. Hot Stuff, a full brother to Colonel John (who finished sixth in last years Derby) which earned an awesome 111 figure winning earlier in February, that figure superior to the 110 Pioneerof the Nile earned winning the Lewis.
#6 Friesan Fire Starting Odds 30/1 Fair Odds 9/1 Earning a new career best 104 winning the Risen Star after taking the LeComte prior to that, Friesan Fire should enter the Louisiana Derby as the strong favorite. Having handled both recent tests with flying colors and with room to improve as the distances increase as a son of A.P. Indy, Friesan Fire could offer tremendous value anywhere near his starting odds of 30 to 1 in pool 1.
#20 The Pamplemousse Starting Odds 30/1 Fair Odds 9/1 Another horse which passed his first major test in a grand way, The Pamplemousse has improved his figure in every start since his debut, going from 98 last fall and progressing to earn a 110 figure leading the San Rafael Stakes Field from start to finish. As a son of Kafwain, runner-up in the 2002 Breeders Cup Juvenile and out of a Rubiano mare, this colt should get even better when he runs a mile and one-eighth in the Santa Anita Derby. He also possesses a tactical running style which means he is capable of running from off the pace in the early stages in spite of his recent wire-to-wire score in the San Rafael. That ability could help him avoid a lot of the traffic pitfalls that overcome many a horse in the full fields to come on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
#3 Capt. Candyman Can Starting Odds 10/1 Fair Odds 9/1 Handled by Ian Wilkes, who was instrumental in Street Senses winning Derby run in 2007, Capt. Candyman Can began his sophomore campaign by winning the seven-furlong Hutcheson Stakes, earning a 101 in the process. Having been victorious in a graded stakes at a mile when taking the Iroquois Stakes last fall, this son of Candy Ride (who retired a perfect six-for-six after winning the mile and one-quarter Pacific Classic Stakes in 2003) should have no issues with running well at the distance of the Derby. Capt. Candyman Can will likely stamp himself a strong Kentucky Derby contender with a big showing in his next scheduled start in the Florida Derby on March 28.
#9 Hello Broadway Starting Odds 50/1 Fair Odds 15/1 A full brother to Nobiz Like Shobiz, winner of the 2007 Wood Memorial before a 10th place finish in the Kentucky Derby, Hello Broadways trainer Barclay Tagg is no stranger to the perils and pitfalls of the Derby trail, having guided Funny Cide to victory in 2003. Having made a splash to start his three-year-old campaign when second to Capt. Candyman Can in the Hutcheson, Hello Broadway now has every right to run back to or to surpass the 107 earned last fall, and therefore deserves at the least a token wager anywhere near his starting 50 to 1 odds.
Ellis Starr not only analyzes a major stakes race every week for the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (ntra.com) and Equibase (equibase.com), he also produces detailed selections and analysis daily for the major circuits around the country, which can be obtained at equibase.com.
Comments
Starting with the favorite (not counting the field entry), i'd make Pioneerof the Nile around 35/1 or 40/1, with nobody else lower than 50/1 (that would be The Pamplemousse). I actually have POTN and The Pamplemousse ranked about even, but the edge currently goes to POTN because he's already gotten past his penultimate prep-race. The Pamplemousse is scheduled to run twice more before the Derby. That means there's more chance of something potentially going wrong.
Stardom Bound i'd make around 60/1 right now. I'd make her about 50/1 if she were going straight into the SA Derby (like POTN), but Frankel has stated he may run her in the SA Oaks (before the SA Derby, or even instead of). Still could go straight into the SA Derby, but that appears unlikely now. And there's always the chance her connections could opt to run her in the Kentucky Oaks. A decision on that won't be know until perhaps the middle of April.
Friesan Fire probably deserves to be around 50/1 right now due to his accomplishments and remaining schedule, but i have trouble putting him on par with The Pamplemousse. I don't think he's as good.
CCC and Hello Broadway i'd have to rate no lower than around 100/1 at this stage. While both are clearly talented, and among the better animals in the crop, neither has recorded a single win around two turns. Hello Broadway hasn't even ATTEMPTED two turns yet, unless i'm mistaken. Not encouraging when your talking about winning a 1 1/4 mile race a few months down the line.
Patena is barely even on my radar right now. He did run second to Friesan Fire in the Lecomte, which is worth something, but he skipped the Risen Star and isn't scheduled to run until the Louisiana Derby. Eligible to improve (especially considering Dutrow's record with new acquisitions), but right now the jury's out on that horse. Way out. Check back after the La Derby.
How in the world can someone say 5/1 are fair odds on ANY horse right now? 95% chance that if any of those horses make it to the derby, they will go off higher than 5/1, not to mention you save the worrying of your horse getting injured or making the earnings mark.
This may be one of the worst financial decisions I've ever witnessed.
Doing an unrelated search I found this. So sad, so expensive, so true DC.
"Homeward bound in the Sham, and the Pamplemousse being very confidently ridden here, Alex Solis just guiding him home. Take the Points battles gamely in second, but the Pamplemousse, they would need to sprout wings to get to him. Alex Solis and the Pamplemousse scintillating in the Sham, hand ridden to an eaaassssyyyy wiiinnnn."
Still gives me the chills.