Update on Dunkirk's Kentucky Derby status
DiscreetCat
Moderator
I mentioned here the other day that Dunkirk, impressive in his allowance win on Thursday and being very much hyped as a Kentucky Derby contender, still has zero graded earnings. And therefore, he would have to run at least 1st or 2nd in the Florida Derby in order to have enough graded earnings to draw into the Derby.
I was under that impression because i know that was the case with Big Brown last year, who arrived at the Florida Derby in the same zero-graded-earnings boat as Dunkirk.
But apparently, the situation is even worse for Dunkirk than i originally thought. I was unaware that the Florida Derby, which offered a $1 million purse last year, has had it's purse restructured and is down to $750,000 this year. So while a win would get Dunkirk into the Derby, a second-place finish (and it's $150,000 worth of graded earnings) might not.
So basically, unless Dunkirk wins the Florida Derby, he'll be on the bubble and would likely have to run back in another race in order to gain some more earnings. That would mean running back either 2 weeks after the Florida Derby, then wheeling back in the Derby three weeks hence. Either that, or running back 3 weeks after the Florida Derby, and then wheeling back in the Derby two weeks later.
So unless Dunkirk wins the Florida Derby, things get pretty dicey after that.
I was under that impression because i know that was the case with Big Brown last year, who arrived at the Florida Derby in the same zero-graded-earnings boat as Dunkirk.
But apparently, the situation is even worse for Dunkirk than i originally thought. I was unaware that the Florida Derby, which offered a $1 million purse last year, has had it's purse restructured and is down to $750,000 this year. So while a win would get Dunkirk into the Derby, a second-place finish (and it's $150,000 worth of graded earnings) might not.
So basically, unless Dunkirk wins the Florida Derby, he'll be on the bubble and would likely have to run back in another race in order to gain some more earnings. That would mean running back either 2 weeks after the Florida Derby, then wheeling back in the Derby three weeks hence. Either that, or running back 3 weeks after the Florida Derby, and then wheeling back in the Derby two weeks later.
So unless Dunkirk wins the Florida Derby, things get pretty dicey after that.
Comments
The 2 weeks/3 weeks option would be the Blue Grass or Arkansas Derby, but those would seem less likely.
Any chance? I can't wait to bet against him when he goes off at even-money in the FL Derby. His next race should really be the make or break. If he doesn't win, however, he may have to run again before the derby, which I believe will severely compromise his chances.
However, I did say this before the last race too when he took my money :laughing:
This has been my #1 pet peave in horse racing. There should be a piece of legislature passed regarding the retirement of completely sound horses. People need to learn from Curlin's owners. Look at what that one year return did for the sport. I'm thrilled to see Zenyatta making an '09 return as well (granted not the same as Curlin returning as she is a female).
I'm part of the dying generation as I am only 23. As I look at the way the game is now, I wonder how it is going to survive when I'm 50. The only horseman I see at my age (atleast in IL) are born into it. Had my father not been an avid horseplayer for 30 years, I wouldn't be posting on this forum as we speak. I have managed to turn a few of my friends in to horse racing fans, but for the most part was unsuccessful as there is nothing to appeal to a younger crowd. A major complaint that a couple of my friends had regarded not having a horse to follow for long periods of time. Outside of following a derby trail, most successful horses fall off the map after that year. My friends and I attend the derby each year as well as all of our local big races (IL Derby, Arlington Million, etc), but our age group is almost non-existant (except at the KY Derby).
As soon as I finish law school I plan to invest in a couple of horses, but where will the game even be at this point? :huh:
Santa Anita Sat. ( Ventana, The Pamplemousse, Unbridled Roman----Triple Box) Good Luck Gentleman.
Your taking what we said to a whole new extreme. We were simply stated that it would be nice for the triple crown race winners, as well as competitive horses from these races, stick around and race at 4 and 5 to face a new group of older horses. Not once did one of us say horses shouldn't retire til they can barely beat 20 claimers at an elderly age. We're simply asking for 1-2 more years out of horses so we can see what they do against older. Had Big Brown not been injured, how great for the sport would the Big Brown vs Curlin match up have been?
what Planet Do You Really Live On Come On You Have To Be Real Here......were Talking About Champion 3 Year Olds That Win Triple Crown Races And Are Never Seen From Again Except In A Breeding Shed Because The Greedy Owners Get $30-60 Million Dollars Is That Not Greed ?? Does That Not Rob Us From Seeing Champions Mature And Run At Age 4-5-6 There Best Years......i Generally For The Record Dont Bet Horses When They Reach Age 7 Up....when I See "pig-trainers" At Cheap Circuits Like Beulah-turf Paradise-penn National Its Criminal...if You Watched Cigars Races They Looked Like Workouts-bailey Just Jogged That Horse Around Oval After Oval Stealing Checks...you Definitely Have Me Pegged Wrong As Far As Betting Old Cheap Claimers....lets Run Our Champions Like Curlin Did..when I First Got On This Site 2-3 Months Ago I Asked Horse Players On Here To Explain Why Every Animal Around This Country Is On Lasix...first Timers Who Have Never Run A Race All On Lasix..its A Cover /screen Not The Diuretic That Were Led To Believe..new York Racing Held Out The Longest Not Allowing Half The Medications These Super-trainers Use..steroids Needle And Juice Men..famed Horseman Jack Vanberg Testified In Front Of Congress And Stated Its "chemical-warfare " On Tracks...
If simply having the same sire made horses half-brothers I could make an arguement for a horse everyday as being "A half brother to midshipman" lol
Generally speaking though, horses are only considered siblings if they come from the same mother. I thought that's what you were getting at, and i stand corrected.
Breeding is something I take in to consideration under two circumstances.
1) Maiden races. Breeding plays its predominant role here (atleast for me). Factoring in distance, surface, early win rate, maturity, etc.
2) When a horse is making a change from the norm. For example a dirt horse who has raced 6 times, but only over the dirt and tries the turf or when a horse is sprinting and stretches out for the first time.
These are things I look for, namely the sire, but to say that all horses with the same sire are half brothers is irrelevant (although politically correct). You would never hear this term used by any professional handicapper or by any horse related broadcast.
Thanks for the tip on Mycrispycream, added to my stable (Y)