Help? Betting Maidens

justin13892002

Just wondering if somebody could help me out in this aspect of the game. I finally am beginning to nail Turf races nicely, but now am trying to concentrate a good deal on my Maiden game. Just wondering if anybody could give me some good expert info on how to bet Maiden races consistently. Any info is appreciated!

DiscreetCat

Dan Illman strikes upon a few key points in his book "Betting Maidens". That's as good a place to start as any.

Unknown

JUSTIN i will gladly work with you on maiden races...HERES something i suggest you pick up i get a new one every year its the T.S.N. SIRE STATS BOOK..VERY INFORMATIVE RATINGS FOR FIRST TIME STARTERS ON DIRT-POLY-TURF has put me on many winners and pays itself off in no time....I PAID $50,000 FOR my masters-degree in 2 year old baby race handicapping..thats what i lost at calder from april --october 1991..i have since become a true master handicapper of baby races -sprinters...i love it when i pick a form up in june-july and the public see-s the dreaded 12 horse field with 9-10 first timers they generally flip the page not me,thats when knowledge-breeding trainer moves come into play..i hit many horses over $40-$50 range in these races...for right now i will start with equiptment changes such as blinkers on-off..ist.time lasix..heres a big no-no knock.if you see a first timer whose last published workout prior to race day is from the gate forget him 85-90 percent lose..the gate work by a good trainer is done early never late.....we can talk about this anytime you would like....

justin13892002

I am def interested in learning Gambler, e-mail me justin13892002@yahoo.com



would love to learn from a tru expert!

DiscreetCat

Fields with 9-10 first-time starters, and you're concentrating on horses with an equipment change? Huh?

Also, gate works coming into the race aren't a bad thing by any stretch of the imagination. If a horse has a LOT of gate drills, it might indicate a problem that the trainer is trying to correct, but that's still pretty speculative.

swedejxn

Working out kinks is true..... but I think the ONLY gate workout just before the race date might mean they are rushing things a bit.... if it is a string of gate works... not a worry....

fbwinners

MSW's are the most complex races out there, it has taken me all of my years of capping to get a read on them and I'm still learing everyday. There are so many different elements to MSW's, that a novice has no idea how to bet them.

FB

DiscreetCat

2yo maiden races are my bread and butter. I love them. Probably why Saratoga is my favorite meet of the year.

DiscreetCat

Btw, one tip I would give you is to pay attention to the 2yo's-in-training sales, which are being held right about now. The big ones are Ocala (OBS), Fasig-Tipton, and Barrett's. Lot's of good runners come out of those sales, and if you do your homework, you can pick up some good information.

Unknown

Cat...you Misunderstood Me.........not Equiptment Changes With Firsters..after The First Or Second Race When A Trainer Goes To The Blinker On Blinker Off Move Generally Is A Positive...........the Gate Works If You Track It Yourself If You Dont Believe Me Is A Definite Negative,if That Is The Horses Last Workout Prior To The Horses First Start Over 80 Percent Dont Win......i Learned At Calder Were A Typical Card Had 3-6 Maiden Races A Day..i Pulled My Hair Out The First Year In 1991 I Lost 50 Grand On Two Year Old Races...i Truley Paid For My Education On Handicapping Babies....love Them 4 1/2 Furlong Races At Churchill....heres The All Systems Approach/all Signals Go On A Young Horse After One Or Two Races.....#blk-on....first-lasix---bug-boy Up Thats A Trainer Pulling All The Stops Out......theres Only A Handful Of Trainers In America That Average Over 20 Percent With There Two Year Olds...once You Find Them They Will Get You To The Window Alot.....

Unknown

D.cat Mine Two Love Saratoga.......4 Years Ago You Couldnt Bet Though As Pletcher And Johnny Veeeee Were 3/5 On In Every Race...those Two Were So Hot And Pletcher Had The Best 2 Year Olds His Barns Were Overflowing....i Told My Buddy This Is Sickening As We As Gamblers Have To Demand Value In This Game As Your Well Aware Of ......see You At Siros...

DiscreetCat

Ask yourself this, Gambler. You say that firsters coming into the race off a gate drill lose 80-90% of the time. Whether that's true, I don't know. I do know that losing 80% of the time would be pretty damn good (most trainers win with less than 20% of their firsters), but what I mean to ask you is how many horses who DON'T come into their debut off a gate drill are winning? Is the percentage any different? Like you said, there may be 9-10 firsters in the race. All but one of them are going to lose.

DiscreetCat

Pletcher has been tearing it up this year with firsters at Gulfstream, that's for sure. But they're not always hammered on the toteboard. In fact, I gave out BZ Warrior here a couple of weeks ago @ $14.40

That's not to suggest you should bet those guys (Pletcher, Asmussen, whoever) just because you're getting a big price. Each horse must be looked at on his own merits. Just like any other race, maiden or not.

The great thing about maiden races is that much of the important information doesn't appear in the Racing Form. So you really have a big edge on some guy who's just looking at the trainer or the workout times. I really believe that first-time starters are the best bet at the track, for that reason.

Unknown

Cat....i Agree With You Whole Heartedly On Finding The Key Horse When Theres No Information Available To The Public..only Astute Handicappers That Understand Breeding And Sires And There Production Index Rating,have A Major Edge Over The Public.....the T.s.n. Sire Book I But Every Year And Is A Great Tool For Early Runners Wether They Be Dirt Or Turf..i Find It Very Useful......i Just Got The Pick 4 At Fairgrounds Waiting For Prices

DiscreetCat

I'm not real big on breeding, but i do take note of the freshman sires that have reportedly had impressive-looking horses at the sales. Speightstown last year makes a good example, and indeed his 2yo firsters performed pretty well.

justin13892002

Thanks for all the info you guys are giving me, helping a ton. I appreciate it all!

justin13892002

I got a 1st time starter tomorrow

Santa Anita
Race 6
2 Swingin Storm



Bejarano jumps on here, which looks good. Horse has shown some good works. Now, horses last workout was from the gate, 4F in 49.2, just wondering if you think its playable or pass?

DiscreetCat

justin13892002 wrote: »

Thanks for all the info you guys are giving me, helping a ton. I appreciate it all!

Be sure and tell your friends............LOL

FlyinLate

There are SO many different minor angles to look at in maiden races that it would be difficult to express over a forum. I suggest reading a few books focused around maidens as well as a few books based on breeding.

An important aspect many people leave out is the 1st out win rate of both the breeding and trainer. Many trainers don't have their horses fully cranked first out and are just getting them the experience. Many sires aren't good first time out and often need time to mature.

A bet that I have been tracking lately is to bet horses who were bet in their career debut, were bet down (4-1 or lower in small field, 8-1 in large field) and were trainer buy a trainer who isn't very good first out. Often times the horse will just have a published work his first race and show a simple 7th or 8th place finish with a comment like "never threatened". The next time out, the trainer will have him cranked, the horse will typically drift up from the price he offered in the first race (because his first effort seems dismal on paper) and run a huge race. Over the last 2 months I've found about 8 of these horses. 3 of them have won, all paying over $20 to win.

justin13892002

Thanks Flying, helps alot. I know an angle I really like myself. The only Maiden angle I found to work before all these posts.


A MSW horse, who was bet well in their last race. If the horse is at the same class, or a lower one, and is at the same distance, regardless of result last race, its a bet. I have found this angle works a good 60% of the time. But thanks, I will keep my eye out for this angle!