Top 5 Derby Selections
FlyinLate
Senior Member
With about 6 weeks to the derby, I'd like to see how everyone on here feels about the derby and who they think the major contenders are. At this point in time, there is alot of confusion, so it is a good starting point.
1) Patena
Patena's race in the LeComte was more impressive than most of the preps this year. All of us on here know what a transfer to the Dutrow barn can do as well. In the LeComte he was gaining late on Fresian Fire after FF had first crack at Au Moon. Patena seems to be one of the few top choices who want more ground. The LA Derby should make or break this horse.
2) Giant Oak
Giant Oak is the kind of horse built for the derby. He is yet to really have his shot to impress everyone, which is why he is higher on most lists. They were offered over 3m for this horse and denied the offer. The owners are friends of a friend and said he is just too special and has too good of a chance to accept the offer. Throw out the Risen Star as Prado got him into all kinds of trouble. There is talk of James Graham taking the mount in the LA Derby, so we shall see. The thing that scares me here is this horse's nack of getting into trouble, sometimes it isn't just the jockeys fault and trouble affects certain horses more than others.
3) The Pamplemousse
This is the board favorite and the horse who I would most like to see win. I love the connections on the horse and his works keep getting more and more impressive. He is growing and maturing at the right time and should be tough this weekend in the Sham. He faces the oh-so-common distance questions, which we should see more clues in his upcoming preps. Look for him to stalk, as I believe his front running effort came as an accident due to the turn by Brother Keith. Has that perfect stalking style that is very effective in large races (derby).
4) Pioneer of the Nile
After the cash call futurity I would have considered myself one of its largest critics. I felt the field was weak and the race was even weaker. I ate my words after the Robert B. Lewis. His stretch run was brilliant and he looked to want even more. He faces the obvious question of dirt for the first time, but I put alot of faith in Baffert. He reminds me of last years Colonel John dominating big races out west. We'll see how this one improves when he faces the likes of Stardom Bound, the Pamplemousse, and other stronger contenders in the SA Derby.
5) Fresian Fire
Unlike 90% of the handicappers out there, I feel Fresian Fire is the most talented of the Larry Jones horses. Gabriel Saez (Larry Jones' right hand man) maintains his mount on Fresian Fire. Jones constantly talks about how talented this one is. I feel Fresian Fire is more likely to get the distance than Old Fashioned, as well as a more talented runner. Too many signs point this one in the right direction. The LeComte was no fluke as he came back and took care of business in the Risen Star. Coming back for perhaps the best prep of the year in the LA derby.
Honorable Mentions-Stardom Bound, Mr. Fantasy, Desert Party, Mr. Hot Stuff.
Please feel free to comment and/or add your own current top 5.
1) Patena
Patena's race in the LeComte was more impressive than most of the preps this year. All of us on here know what a transfer to the Dutrow barn can do as well. In the LeComte he was gaining late on Fresian Fire after FF had first crack at Au Moon. Patena seems to be one of the few top choices who want more ground. The LA Derby should make or break this horse.
2) Giant Oak
Giant Oak is the kind of horse built for the derby. He is yet to really have his shot to impress everyone, which is why he is higher on most lists. They were offered over 3m for this horse and denied the offer. The owners are friends of a friend and said he is just too special and has too good of a chance to accept the offer. Throw out the Risen Star as Prado got him into all kinds of trouble. There is talk of James Graham taking the mount in the LA Derby, so we shall see. The thing that scares me here is this horse's nack of getting into trouble, sometimes it isn't just the jockeys fault and trouble affects certain horses more than others.
3) The Pamplemousse
This is the board favorite and the horse who I would most like to see win. I love the connections on the horse and his works keep getting more and more impressive. He is growing and maturing at the right time and should be tough this weekend in the Sham. He faces the oh-so-common distance questions, which we should see more clues in his upcoming preps. Look for him to stalk, as I believe his front running effort came as an accident due to the turn by Brother Keith. Has that perfect stalking style that is very effective in large races (derby).
4) Pioneer of the Nile
After the cash call futurity I would have considered myself one of its largest critics. I felt the field was weak and the race was even weaker. I ate my words after the Robert B. Lewis. His stretch run was brilliant and he looked to want even more. He faces the obvious question of dirt for the first time, but I put alot of faith in Baffert. He reminds me of last years Colonel John dominating big races out west. We'll see how this one improves when he faces the likes of Stardom Bound, the Pamplemousse, and other stronger contenders in the SA Derby.
5) Fresian Fire
Unlike 90% of the handicappers out there, I feel Fresian Fire is the most talented of the Larry Jones horses. Gabriel Saez (Larry Jones' right hand man) maintains his mount on Fresian Fire. Jones constantly talks about how talented this one is. I feel Fresian Fire is more likely to get the distance than Old Fashioned, as well as a more talented runner. Too many signs point this one in the right direction. The LeComte was no fluke as he came back and took care of business in the Risen Star. Coming back for perhaps the best prep of the year in the LA derby.
Honorable Mentions-Stardom Bound, Mr. Fantasy, Desert Party, Mr. Hot Stuff.
Please feel free to comment and/or add your own current top 5.
Comments
2. Friesen Flyer
3. Dunkirk
4. Pioneerof the Nile
5. Flying Pegasus - my longshot pick. Raced wide the entire race in the risen star and battled gamely. Excellent race off of a 5 month layoff and should improve.
2. The Pamplemousse
3. Old Fashioned
4. Friesan Fire
5. Papa Clem
I'd probably have Stardom Bound ranked 5th if not for the Santa Anita Oaks thing. If she goes in the SA Derby come April, it'll likely be hard to keep her out of the Top 5 at that point.
It seems Fresian Fire and Pioneer of the Nile seem to be the common link in our selections.
Last year big brown nor 8 belles i dont believe seemed to be serious contenders at this point in time. Ive always shyed away from horses that run the wood. I dont know why but it seems the wood eats up energy.