More discrimination with the Beyer figures

DiscreetCat

This time, it's sex discimination.

As we all know, Rachel Alexandra ran on the same card as Freisan Fire over the weekend, and also happened to run an identical distance. The final times were almost identical as well, with Rachel Alexandra checking in just .09 seconds slower than Freisan Fire. So the Beyers should be similar, if not identical. Right?

Wrong. Rachel Alexandra was given a 97, while Freisan Fire was given a 104.

FlyinLate

DiscreetCat wrote: »

This time, it's sex discimination.

As we all know, Rachel Alexandra ran on the same card as Freisan Fire over the weekend, and also happened to run an identical distance. The final times were almost identical as well, with Rachel Alexandra checking in just .09 seconds slower than Freisan Fire. So the Beyers should be similar, if not identical. Right?

Wrong. Rachel Alexandra was given a 97, while Freisan Fire was given a 104.

I've just about given up on using beyers.

justin13892002

I have read ALL of Andy Beyers books and have kind of became a student of his. I am not quite sure how the beyers came out like that!!!!! Just curious, how where the fractions? Close? Just trying to figure out how they were that far apart. I know Andy doesnt do all of the Beyers himself, he has guys at each track making these Beyers up each day. If you could, could ya post the fractions?

wire2wire

I use my own figures and compare them to Beyers...More often then not they disagree with me getting a higher figure...I quit using his figures as a variety of people feed them to him and are posted as his own work...w2w

DiscreetCat

Fractional times are not used when making Beyer figures, so that's not the problem. Btw, i couldn't begin to understand how someone can make speed figures without taking pace into account (it's kind of important), but that's just me. The Beyer people are claiming that the track was "drying out" as the card went along, but that seems more like a convenient excuse than anything else. The Louisiana Derby was run just an hour and a half after the Fair Grounds Oaks, and besides, one look at the Louisiana Derby on video should tell you that the track didn't appear to be "drying out" by any stretch of the imagination. As far as their respective fractions, Rachel Alexandra was setting a MUCH faster pace than Papa Clem/Freisan Fire, so if anything, you should upgrade her performance (rather than Freisan Fire's). Here are the fractions, though the mile fraction from the Louisiana Derby is unavailable. I checked the video replay, and it showed 1:33 and change (an obvious error), so it appears there must've been a timer malfunction at the mile call.

Rachel Alexandra:

23.40, 47.54, 112.39, 136.71, 143.55

Papa Clem/Freisan Fire:

24.12, 48.75, 113.34, (NA), 143.46

DELRIO

DiscreetCat wrote: »

Fractional times are not used when making Beyer figures, so that's not the problem. Btw, i couldn't begin to understand how someone can make speed figures without taking pace into account (it's kind of important), but that's just me. The Beyer people are claiming that the track was "drying out" as the card went along, but that seems more like a convenient excuse than anything else. The Louisiana Derby was run just an hour and a half after the Fair Grounds Oaks, and besides, one look at the Louisiana Derby on video should tell you that the track didn't appear to be "drying out" by any stretch of the imagination. As far as their respective fractions, Rachel Alexandra was setting a MUCH faster pace than Papa Clem/Freisan Fire, so if anything, you should upgrade her performance (rather than Freisan Fire's). Here are the fractions, though the mile fraction from the Louisiana Derby is unavailable. I checked the video replay, and it showed 1:33 and change (an obvious error), so it appears there must've been a timer malfunction at the mile call.

Rachel Alexandra:

23.40, 47.54, 112.39, 136.71, 143.55

Papa Clem/Freisan Fire:

24.12, 48.75, 113.34, (NA), 143.46

Her name is YOU CAN

DiscreetCat

Go to this link, and type in the dam's name, and the year of the foal. That'll tell you who it is. Earnings, i couldn't tell you about.

https://nominations.breederscup.com/bcFoalVerificationForm.cfm

justin13892002

Possibly some sort of Bias. I have Beyers speed figure table and have already filled in the track variant for the day and I came up with both of them having a 98 Beyer. Not sure why Friesan Fire is so much higher....

hue21998

The figure is so much higher because the B figures are biased. Just look at this years prep races and you will see this is far from the one instance.

DiscreetCat

Incidentally, Pioneerof the Nile got a 90 for his win in the San Felipe. Looks like The Pamplemousse will probably go favored in the Santa Anita Derby.

FlyinLate

DiscreetCat wrote: »

Incidentally, Pioneerof the Nile got a 90 for his win in the San Felipe. Looks like The Pamplemousse will probably go favored in the Santa Anita Derby.

Damnit. I was hoping to actually get 2-1 or higher on him.

DUNCO

I NOT A BEYER BEAN COUNTER BUT I THOUGHT I READ THAT A LOT OF HIS # ALSO COMES FROM THE QUAILTY OF THE RACE SUCH AS A 10 CLAIMER GOES 1:07 RUNNING AGAINST 10 CLAIMERS WILL GET A 100 BUT IF HE DOES IT AGAINST A GRADE ONE FIELD HE GET A 120 , MAYBE I WAS JUST DREAMING:zzz:

DiscreetCat

There's not much question that "name brand" horses occasionally receive bigger Beyer numbers than they deserve. The figures Curlin was racking up last fall appeared way out of whack to me.

In the case of Freisan Fire and Rachel Alexandra, i think it's clear that Freisan Fire received a little added boost in his figure because DRF is touting him as a top Derby contender. Fillies are "supposed" to be inferior to males (and particularly the ones at the top of Derby lists), so they made Rachel's number lower. At least, that's what i believe happened.