Round 3 of the pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager
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from Bloodhorse:
Edward P. Evans homebred Quality Road, winner of the Florida Derby (gr. I) and Fountain of Youth (gr. II), is the morning line favorite among 24 betting interests for the third and final pool of Churchill Downs 2009 Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which opens four days of betting at racetracks and satellite wagering outlets April 2.
Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager will be the second in the 11-year history of the wager to offer exacta wagering along with its traditional $2 minimum win wager. The first exacta pool offered during the Feb. 12-15 second pool of the 2009 Derby Future bet attracted $104,017 of a total of $380,420 wagered during the four-day betting. The Kentucky Derby Future Exacta also requires a minimum bet of $2.
Quality Road, a Jimmy Jerkens-trained son of Elusive Quality , a winner of three of four career starts, was installed as the narrow 6-1 favorite in morning line odds for KDFW Pool 3 established by Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia.
Three contendersDavid Lanzman and IEAH Stables I Want Revenge, Vinery and Fox Hill Farms Friesan Fire, and Micheal Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier and Derrick Smiths Dunkirk were lumped together as 8-1 second choices in the morning line.
The mutuel field, which includes all 3-year-olds other than the 23 individual horses in the pool, is the co-third choice in the pool at 10-1. Also listed at 10-1 was a trio of contenders that includes Southwest (gr. III) and Remsen (gr. II) Stakes winner Old Fashioned and Southern California-based stars Pioneerof the Nile, winner of the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) at Hollywood Park, and Sham Stakes (GIII) winner The Pamplemousse.
The all others wager was favored in both of this years earlier KDFW pools. It closed as the 9-5 choice in Februarys Pool 2 and the 9-2 fans choice in Pool 2 in March.
The Kentucky Derby Future Wager offers fans the opportunity to wager on contenders for the 2009 Run for the Roses at odds that could be far more attractive than those they would receive on the day of the race.
Wagering on Pool 3 will open at noon (all times EDT) April 2, and concludes April 5, at 6 p.m. Final payouts on both the win and exacta wagers in KDFW Pool 2 will be determined by the odds that are in place at conclusion of wagering in the four-day pool.
Nine new horses are among the individual betting interests in Pool 3. Wagering interests for the respective pools in are chosen by a three-member panel that includes Daily Racing Form correspondents Mike Watchmaker and Brad Free, and John Asher, Churchill Downs vice president of racing communications.
Real time odds, exacta payouts, and other information on the KDFW are available on the official event Web site at Kentucky Derby.
KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 3
# Horse ML
1 Charitable Man* 30-1
2 Chocolate Candy 30-1
3 Desert Party 30-1
4 Dunkirk 8-1
5 Flying Private* 50-1
6 Friesan Fire 8-1
7 Giant Oak 30-1
8 Hold Me Back* 30-1
9 I Want Revenge 8-1
10 Imperial Council 20-1
11 Mafaaz* 50-1
12 Musket Man* 30-1
13 Mr. Hot Stuff* 30-1
14 Old Fashioned 10-1
15 Papa Clem 30-1
16 Pioneerof the Nile 10-1
17 Quality Road 6-1
18 Regal Ransom* 30-1
19 Take the Points 30-1
20 Terrain* 50-1
21 The Pamplemousse 10-1
22 Theregoesjojo 20-1
23 Win Willy* 20-1
24 Mutuel Field 10-1
* New Wagering Interest in Pool 3
Morning Line odds by Mike Battaglia
Edward P. Evans homebred Quality Road, winner of the Florida Derby (gr. I) and Fountain of Youth (gr. II), is the morning line favorite among 24 betting interests for the third and final pool of Churchill Downs 2009 Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which opens four days of betting at racetracks and satellite wagering outlets April 2.
Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager will be the second in the 11-year history of the wager to offer exacta wagering along with its traditional $2 minimum win wager. The first exacta pool offered during the Feb. 12-15 second pool of the 2009 Derby Future bet attracted $104,017 of a total of $380,420 wagered during the four-day betting. The Kentucky Derby Future Exacta also requires a minimum bet of $2.
Quality Road, a Jimmy Jerkens-trained son of Elusive Quality , a winner of three of four career starts, was installed as the narrow 6-1 favorite in morning line odds for KDFW Pool 3 established by Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia.
Three contendersDavid Lanzman and IEAH Stables I Want Revenge, Vinery and Fox Hill Farms Friesan Fire, and Micheal Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier and Derrick Smiths Dunkirk were lumped together as 8-1 second choices in the morning line.
The mutuel field, which includes all 3-year-olds other than the 23 individual horses in the pool, is the co-third choice in the pool at 10-1. Also listed at 10-1 was a trio of contenders that includes Southwest (gr. III) and Remsen (gr. II) Stakes winner Old Fashioned and Southern California-based stars Pioneerof the Nile, winner of the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) at Hollywood Park, and Sham Stakes (GIII) winner The Pamplemousse.
The all others wager was favored in both of this years earlier KDFW pools. It closed as the 9-5 choice in Februarys Pool 2 and the 9-2 fans choice in Pool 2 in March.
The Kentucky Derby Future Wager offers fans the opportunity to wager on contenders for the 2009 Run for the Roses at odds that could be far more attractive than those they would receive on the day of the race.
Wagering on Pool 3 will open at noon (all times EDT) April 2, and concludes April 5, at 6 p.m. Final payouts on both the win and exacta wagers in KDFW Pool 2 will be determined by the odds that are in place at conclusion of wagering in the four-day pool.
Nine new horses are among the individual betting interests in Pool 3. Wagering interests for the respective pools in are chosen by a three-member panel that includes Daily Racing Form correspondents Mike Watchmaker and Brad Free, and John Asher, Churchill Downs vice president of racing communications.
Real time odds, exacta payouts, and other information on the KDFW are available on the official event Web site at Kentucky Derby.
KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 3
# Horse ML
1 Charitable Man* 30-1
2 Chocolate Candy 30-1
3 Desert Party 30-1
4 Dunkirk 8-1
5 Flying Private* 50-1
6 Friesan Fire 8-1
7 Giant Oak 30-1
8 Hold Me Back* 30-1
9 I Want Revenge 8-1
10 Imperial Council 20-1
11 Mafaaz* 50-1
12 Musket Man* 30-1
13 Mr. Hot Stuff* 30-1
14 Old Fashioned 10-1
15 Papa Clem 30-1
16 Pioneerof the Nile 10-1
17 Quality Road 6-1
18 Regal Ransom* 30-1
19 Take the Points 30-1
20 Terrain* 50-1
21 The Pamplemousse 10-1
22 Theregoesjojo 20-1
23 Win Willy* 20-1
24 Mutuel Field 10-1
* New Wagering Interest in Pool 3
Morning Line odds by Mike Battaglia
Comments
IMO, these are the only three that may offer any kind of remote shred of value. Every other horse on the list offering any value runs this weekend and we all know the sunday money is what changes odds. These three wont run again until after the pool closes and do IMO all have a chance to improve off their last.
Hold Me Back will come second off that long layoff after an impressive return. Papa Clem will go second start on dirt without the long shipment (unlike Cali to LA where he was unruly). Win Willy has his shot to prove the Arkansas Derby wasn't a fluke and to be honest I see these odds floating upward. At 30-1 or so Win Willy might be a future to look in to.
:idoit: Meant to say he has a shot to prove his last wasn't a fluke in the Arkansas Derby next week.
That's got nothing to do with it. Dunkirk was already a part of this pool before the Florida Derby results were known. And they're not going to list him very high, considering he went favored in Pool 2, and he remains quite popular.
He's still a longshot to make the race, unless Pletcher decided to run him again in the Lexington (and he currently insists that he won't).
Ky Derby Trail: Win Willy Will Win Derby | BloodHorse.com News
Wow. First 2 paragraphs are a repeat of what I said. I need a job writing for bloodhorse :drinking:
Tough question, because though i do like several horses, there's generally no value in these things.
That being said, there IS generally more value in Round 3 than in the other pools, because the race is only a month away now and many of the horses will have completed their final preps when the pool closes, so you have a pretty good idea of who's going to be in the race, and what their raceday odds might be. So you can determine how much of an overlay (or underlay) you might be getting. The month leading into the race (for horses who have already completed their final preps) is worth maybe an extra 30%, compared to the projected raceday odds. So if you're willing to take 6/1 on a horse come raceday (Quality Road, for instance), you would only require 8/1 this weekend.
That being said, the horse i would probably have the most interest in this weekend would be Win Willy. I like him quite a little bit in the Arkansas Derby, but that race won't be run until next weekend, and as such, he figures to be overlooked this weekend. The bulk of the money figures to come in on Quality Road, Freisan Fire, and the Santa Anita Derby/Wood Memorial runners. There's some chance that Win Willy will drift up into a lofty neighborhood, particularly because he's already underrated to begin with.
Papa Clem is another who fits that profile. He had some trouble shipping into the Louisiana Derby (apparently was freaked out by the airplane), and he also caught an off-track that day. Eligible to take a big step forward in the Arkansas Derby.