Kentucky Derby morning-line favorite
DiscreetCat
Moderator
from the Louisville Courier-Journal:
Kentucky Derby official oddsmaker Mike Battaglia said that it's "a flip of a coin" whether Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge or Florida Derby winner Quality Road will be the morning-line favorite at the May 2 race at Churchill.
Battaglia said last night that he expects the favorite to be about 3-1 in what shapes up as another capacity 20-horse field.
Battaglia noted that the bandwagon exploded for I Want Revenge after he overcame a ton of trouble to win last week's Wood and that the colt was favored in Churchill's last Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool last week. Also, Quality Road might be hindered by a quarter-crack in his hoof.
Battaglia said Santa Anita Derby winner Pioneerof the Nile, Louisiana Derby winner Friesan Fire and Florida Derby runner-up Dunkirk (assuming he gets in the field) will round out the top five, though not necessarily in that order.
Kentucky Derby official oddsmaker Mike Battaglia said that it's "a flip of a coin" whether Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge or Florida Derby winner Quality Road will be the morning-line favorite at the May 2 race at Churchill.
Battaglia said last night that he expects the favorite to be about 3-1 in what shapes up as another capacity 20-horse field.
Battaglia noted that the bandwagon exploded for I Want Revenge after he overcame a ton of trouble to win last week's Wood and that the colt was favored in Churchill's last Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool last week. Also, Quality Road might be hindered by a quarter-crack in his hoof.
Battaglia said Santa Anita Derby winner Pioneerof the Nile, Louisiana Derby winner Friesan Fire and Florida Derby runner-up Dunkirk (assuming he gets in the field) will round out the top five, though not necessarily in that order.
Comments
While I do agree those are the top 5 contenders, I don't think I Want Revenge or Quality Road belong at 3-1. Those 5 horses are going to take a great deal of the money, but I don't see IWR or QR at lower than 7-2.
May have came out wrong. I do believe IWR and QR will be the two favorites at 7-2. IMO Dunkirk will go off as the 3rd choice followed by FF and then POTN.
IWR is a better horse than Dunkirk ? Really ?
I guess different strokes for different folks but you are not going to beat Quality Road on Derby Day. This race sets up so well for him its a joke.
He gets to stalk any pace and get first run at the top of the stretch... good luck catching him... ask Dunkirk how that worked out for him....
Why don't you put your life savings on Quality Road then. That way, if he loses you won't be able to afford internet anymore :laugh:
Theregoesjojo sure as hell didn't flatter QR or Dunkirk after getting spanked in the Bluegrass. IWR has shown he can overcome traffic and can win from every position in the field. Let's see what happens if Quality Road draws poorly or doesn't get his usual dream trip when he has to compete with 19 other horses.
Is Quality Road a good horse? Yes. Will he be in my tickets? Yes.
Does he tower over this field like you make it seem? Not a chance in hell. This is one of the most competitive field in years, this isn't like Big Brown standing out like last year.
I've bet against him in every LA prep and he beat me each time. Granted the last was in a sloppy mess, but Papa Clem came out to win next out in ARK Derby and Giant Oak came out to run a descent second in the IL Derby. Not saying I like FF in the Derby, but I understand how some can make an argument for him. People would learn to respect your opinions more if you learned to respect the opinions of others. If you dont like a horse, explain why (ONCE, not repeat yourself 6 times stating the same thing in different words). It is fun to have differing opinions, your certainty of your selections sucks all of the fun right out of it. It is called an opinion for a reason.
This is EXACTLY like last year. Quality Road is the Big Brown of 2009. He is much better than all of these pretenders. There are a dozen horses that don't even belong in the race.
POTN has never raced on fast hard dirt and now he has to face Quality Road ? IWR has been chasing slow fractions .... do you think Quality Road will be setting slow fractions ?
Look at the FOY and Florida Derby AGAIN and tell me there is a horse that you feel can stay with that.... name him for me..... the horse posted back to back races over 110 Beyers... what more do you need ???
If all of your handicapping revolves around beyers then you have some work to do.
Papa Clem or IWR never raced on dirt until recent preps and those two have sure flattered POTN. Not to mention theyre beyers improved leaps and bounds upon the shift to the east coast and change to dirt.
QR does not stand out like BB did last year. Simple as that.
Btw Draynay, it would serve you well to realize that NO horse has better than a 20% chance or so of winning the Derby (and i'm talking about every year, not just this year). There's simply too much that can go wrong in that race.
You make it sound like QR has a 90% chance of winning, which we all know is complete bullshit. Even YOU know that, come on dude. You can't possibly be that ignorant.
I'd like to see Quality Road win. Maybe he will. We'll see.
A little more than a month ago I told EVERYONE who would listen that Old Fashioned was not what they thought back when he was top 3 on everyones list. I was told by EVERYONE I was wrong and had no idea what I was talking about..............well where are they now?
Could Quality Road get stepped on ? yes. Could the rider fall off ? yes. If nothing crazy happens there is no horse in the race with the speed and talent to beat Quality Road.
3 years ago I bragged about Barbaro, 2 years ago I bragged about Street Sense being the horse for the course and last year I said I would never bet another race if Big Brown didn't win the Derby and THIS YEAR I am saying that Quality Road is your winner plain and simple. Could he fall down or could he get hurt before the gates open yes we all know this. But if those gates open and nothing strange happens Quality Road is your Derby winner like it or not..... its not even close with these average horses running 1:49 +
Its really kinda funny. Horses this year can't break 1:49 and they are considered so good....unreal.....
Quality Road breaks a track record first time EVER going two turns and you expect someone to beat him when he tries it again ??? Good luck with that.
Because two brilliant horses were pushed to breaking track records it was the
TRACK that set the record and not these two amazing horses.
That is just plain crazy and that is why we have some of the problems we have in horse racing.
Very good horses set records not tracks.
There are dry fast tracks all across America somehow on that day the track at Gulfstream had magic dirt on it that made very good horses run even faster..... nonsense!!!
:idoit:
IWR...........................4 to 1
Dunkirk.....................6 to 1
POTN....................... 7 to 1
it's plain and simple.....we all have DERBY FEVER.........GOOD LUCK TO YOU ALL!!!!
As I've stated in an earlier post, 3-1 is simply not going to happen this year IMO. The only way I really see 3-1 would be a brutal draw for many of the favorites. For example
IWR draws 20
Dunkirk draws 1
POTN draws 18
Quality Road draws 10 - The only good draw of the bunch, then QR MAY go 3-1.
Wih brutal draws for many of the favorites (except one), it is POSSIBLE we'll see 3-1, but still unlikely. I stated 7/2 as the favorite, but that may even be underestimating.