Kentucky Derby head-to-head matchups
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Ran across these matchups @ Lucky's today. The one that really jumped out at me was the first one listed on the sheet, Quality Road +100 over Dunkirk. I was fully prepared to take the even-money on Quality Road, but to my surprise, i was actually quoted +110 at the window. Looks like they had already taken a limit bet on Dunkirk and moved the number. I mean, these things just came out. Anyway, here's the sheet, with the opening number on the left, and the updated number (if any) in parentheses on the right. I'm assuming that Quality Road probably dropped back down to even-money after my wager, but i didn't wait around to find out.
2401 Quality Road +100 (+110)
2402 Dunkirk -130 (-140)
2403 Dunkirk +110 (+135)
2404 I Want Revenge -140 (-165)
2405 Pioneerof the Nile -110 (-125)
2406 Friesan Fire -120 (-105)
2407 Desert Party +100
2408 Papa Clem -130
2409 Win Willy -115
2410 West Side Bernie -115
2411 Regal Ransom +170
2412 Desert Party -220
Regarding the other props i was looking at, i had gotten my hopes up after that line move on Dunkirk that the price on I Want Revenge (over Dunkirk) might have dropped also. But instead, it was IWR who had taken the limit bet. In fact, it appears that IWR got double-popped. Kinda strange.
Pioneerof the Nile caught my interest, but i really think that one could go either way,. and i completely lost interest after i saw that POTN had moved to -125. I'm sure i can find more attractive options involving POTN later.
Lastly, i like Win Willy over West Side Bernie, and i was really thinking about betting that one also. But West Side Bernie ran a close second behind I Want Revenge (who is being listed as the favorite around town), and West Side Bernie also has the higher last-race Beyer. So i'm thinking i might see this same prop later, with Win Willy being listed as an underdog. Of maybe this one will simply move (tyhough it hasn't yet). No hurry on this one, i didn't think.
Papa Clem -130 over Desert Party is probably worth a look as well.
2401 Quality Road +100 (+110)
2402 Dunkirk -130 (-140)
2403 Dunkirk +110 (+135)
2404 I Want Revenge -140 (-165)
2405 Pioneerof the Nile -110 (-125)
2406 Friesan Fire -120 (-105)
2407 Desert Party +100
2408 Papa Clem -130
2409 Win Willy -115
2410 West Side Bernie -115
2411 Regal Ransom +170
2412 Desert Party -220
Regarding the other props i was looking at, i had gotten my hopes up after that line move on Dunkirk that the price on I Want Revenge (over Dunkirk) might have dropped also. But instead, it was IWR who had taken the limit bet. In fact, it appears that IWR got double-popped. Kinda strange.
Pioneerof the Nile caught my interest, but i really think that one could go either way,. and i completely lost interest after i saw that POTN had moved to -125. I'm sure i can find more attractive options involving POTN later.
Lastly, i like Win Willy over West Side Bernie, and i was really thinking about betting that one also. But West Side Bernie ran a close second behind I Want Revenge (who is being listed as the favorite around town), and West Side Bernie also has the higher last-race Beyer. So i'm thinking i might see this same prop later, with Win Willy being listed as an underdog. Of maybe this one will simply move (tyhough it hasn't yet). No hurry on this one, i didn't think.
Papa Clem -130 over Desert Party is probably worth a look as well.
Comments
Gomez -115
Why don't you ask all the smart people who had Dunkirk beating Quality Road in the Florida Derby how that worked out for them.....
The Quality Road one is amazing.
uhh because in that wager he has to beat one horse.
In the derby he has to defeat 19.
Jesus Christ
Before you go ahead and state that Dunkirk is going to run second anyways, don't. We all know it is going to be your response.
Regardless I would still rather have 4 to 1 for him winning the Derby then even money beating Dunkirk.
your obviously not paying attention this race is called "THE KENTUCKY DERBY" not the souped up florida derby
The facts and the stats just don't back up that statement. Its been regurgitated many times on many blogs by people who really know very little about racing so I am very surprised to see the words "souped up" come from you.
I was AT THE TRACK that day like I am most days and have been since 1982. The track was prepared the exact same way on Florida Derby Day as it had been on Thursday and Friday and all MEET !!! They changed nothing.
Somehow you are under the impression that the dirt was magic and faster than any other dirt in the country. Wow... what power they must have. No horse came close the days before, the day of, or the days that followed to the times posted by Quality Road.
I guess the dirt was magic again during the Fountain of Youth because AGAIN no horse has come close to finishing near his time.
At some point you and others like you are going to have to give credit where credit belongs... with the HORSE and stop the nonsense that the track was somehow juiced. The facts do not support the theory and it does NOTHING to advance our sport.
If you want to talk about something being juice perhaps you would like to get Mr. Mullins on the phone. Lay off the track stuff unless you have some FACTS.:idoit:
FB
The PP draw will be a factor also.
THE TRACK CAME UP DIRTY..............
:yes:
Look this is a very weak field of horses... BUT Afleet Alex lost the Derby to a very very weak field so strange things can happen.
However, SpanishChestnut is not in the race so I doubt if we are going to see any crazy splits.
A few horses have run decent races but for the most part this year is a group of slow plodders. The fact that almost no horse broke 1:49 for the 1 1/8th tells me we have a very average group this year.
IWR can't win a race in Cali ... ships to NY and faces a group of allowance horses that are average at best and many consider him a favorite for the Derby ? It just makes no sense.:smoking:
Oil Man Two I'll Buy Both Your Nags For 50 Mill,bet 30mill On Desert And We Both Make Money And Will Rost Up Regal At The Big Party ...ha Ha Dumb Americans...........
Ever hear of a horse not taking to a surface? Hmmm
We've all witnessed dozens of horses run like duds on one surface and phenominal on another. Don't be so closed minded.
fb
They do the same thing with sports, btw. Every sports number (for the most part) is copied from offshore before it ever gets posted in Vegas. There are no oddsmakers in Vegas anymore, or at least there are very few of them.
Also, -115 means that in order to win $100, you would have to risk $115.
+115 is just the opposite, you would risk $100 in order to win $115.
Minus is the favorite, plus is the underdog.
Why you like that one?
Where do you come up with this stuff, Draynay?