Who are your upsets to hit the board?
FlyinLate
Senior Member
We've had ALOT of discussion around winners, and a few posts about who might run on late to create those large exotics.
Let's eliminate all main contenders. No Quality Road, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk, Pioneer of the Nile, Chocolate Candy, Papa Clem, and Fresian Fire.
Use the Poll and discuss.
Let's eliminate all main contenders. No Quality Road, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk, Pioneer of the Nile, Chocolate Candy, Papa Clem, and Fresian Fire.
Use the Poll and discuss.
Comments
If you don't mind, punch those three in the poll. It'll be easier to get a tally and see how the forum views it. Not to mention I've noticed people who tend not to participate verbally in threads will often atleast punch some horses in the poll.
If Win Willy or Summer Bird hit the board I will wear a pink dress every day of my life and change my name to Sally.
The only way they hit the board is if they jump the fence and run into it.
Will you leave the site if either horse finishes 4th or better?
You got a deal...... if you agree to leave if they don't.....deal ?:thumbup1:
I've been here for two years, you've been here for two weeks. Big difference.
Why don't we just agree not to agree. Look I am just talking horses and giving my opinion. You don't have to like my opinion but just let it go.....
If you have a idea who is going to win the Derby post it and tell us why. If you can't do that then just move along.
We only have a few days left to figure out our tickets and I am looking for insight and clarity if you have some to offer let me know.
15 of the 17 winners had Beyer Speed figures of 102 or greater. The only exceptions were Giacomo at 95 and Sea Hero at 91. 14 of the 17 had a Beyer of 100 or over in the race previous to the Derby and 13 of the 17 had at least two Beyers over 100 in their past performances.
Last year only five horses had a race over 100. Big Brown had two 106's, Gayego had a 103 and a 102, Eight Belles had a 100 and a 99, Z Fortune and Recapture the Glory had 102's. Of course the results were Big Brown, Eight Belles-2nd Denis of Cork,-3rd Tale of Ekati-4th and Recapture(etc) 5th. The other 2 finished 10th and 17th.
.
This year in the lists of top contenders I can only find DUNKIRK, QUALITY ROAD, FRIESAN FIRE, I WANT REVENGE and PAPA CLEM with last race Beyers at or above 102. West Side Bernie at 101 could be a bubble horse. I Want Revenge and Quality Road are the only horses with 2 Beyers over 100 in 2009.
Only Big Brown won with as few as 3 lifetime prep races - his last two routes were 106-106; his first on turf was 90 - so he had 3 route preps. This makes Dunkirk a little suspect because after one 7f race at 77 he has had two routes at 9f the 2nd race at 98 and the most recent at 108.
In jms62 Pace parameters post it said that in 9 out of 11 years the data had been kept the winner came from the PF column of data. That would mean QUALITY ROAD, WIN WILLY, FRIESAN FIRE, I WANT REVENGE and PIONEER OF THE NILE.
I never took statistics but if you have (15/17) x (9/11) = .72 (some math wiz please verify), it looks like among the three dual qualifiers (Bold) you have a 72% chance of getting the winner out of these three.
So far the list of entrants to the Derby is not complete, so this info might change.
YouTube - Johnny Cash "A Boy Named Sue" ORIGINAL