126 lbs. will be a major factor !
Draynay
Banned
For a large horse like Quality Road who has already carried 122 lbs. going 1 1/8th the extra 4 pounds will be no big deal. But for many smaller closing type horses it will be a very big deal.
For example take Papa Clem and Regal Ransom neither horse has ever won a race carrying more than 120lbs. In the Derby they will be saddled with 126lbs and go further than ever before... do you think they really have a chance at all ?
Advice looked pretty good with a light 117 on his back... how will he look with 9 more pounds?
Desert Party is a miler and looked tired going 1 1/8th at 120 lbs how will he look with 6 more pounds?
Summer Bird adds 7 pounds ? Good luck with that .....
For example take Papa Clem and Regal Ransom neither horse has ever won a race carrying more than 120lbs. In the Derby they will be saddled with 126lbs and go further than ever before... do you think they really have a chance at all ?
Advice looked pretty good with a light 117 on his back... how will he look with 9 more pounds?
Desert Party is a miler and looked tired going 1 1/8th at 120 lbs how will he look with 6 more pounds?
Summer Bird adds 7 pounds ? Good luck with that .....
Comments
:Look I am trying to give you some angles to look at and weight is often overlooked. I have hit the Derby winner 4 out of the last 5 years for a reason.
I know you know I like Quality Road but I am offering you some reasons to pass on others. Take the advice or don't. Its just conversation.
I lost quite a bit on that race because I was up quite a bit when the race came around so I bought more win tickets on Afleet because I was sure he was going to whip that weak field. I lost on all my win and place tickets and all my tri and exacta the only ticket I cashed was a 50 buck Show ticket I bought for my daughter.
by a neck and closing. so he got some money on him too.
Get ready to buy that hat .... QR wins for fun against this group.
Keep in mind there were also a million others with the same feat. You do realize your 4 winners were all post-time favorites. Don't act like you have some serious revelation and hit these impossible to cap races. Someone who bets the favorite every single derby did the same thing you did.
Big Brown, Street Sense, Barbaro, and Smarty Jones were all favorites.
The one year a price came you lost your ass.
I'm not taking anything away from you as I'm a firm believer that it's better to have a $3 winner than a $60 4th place finisher, money over pride. Just don't pretend like you could write a book on picking derby winners.
I stood to win over $5000 on Afleet Alex that year (Derby future @ 18/1 taken AFTER his Arkansas Derby win), and he looked like a winner in deep stretch. Brutal beat there; he was definitely the right horse. They showed an isolated overhead shot of him after the race, and Jeremy Rose was spending all of his time weaving through traffic. With a clear, unobstructed path, Afleet Alex would've won. No question. He also confirmed his clear superiority over that group in the Preakness and Belmont.
If you're gonna get on Draynay for something, don't make it Afleet Alex. On the flip side however, Afleet Alex makes the PERFECT example of how the best horse doesn't always win the Derby. Draynay should keep that in mind when he says things like "Quality Road is a lock; everyone eldse is running for second."
Even if we knew for a fact that Quality Road is the best horse (and we don't), that doesn't mean he's gonna win. For goodness sake, where did Holy Bull finish? Eighteenth? That pretty much tells you all you need to know about the Derby. It's kind of a crapshoot, to put it mildly.
Every year I hear people boast about horses that really have no chance at all .... Summer Bird ??? Please that is not handicapping that is throwing darts.
Go ahead and do a poll and check out how many on this forum are picking Quality Road.... when he wins those who did not pick him will say.... well everyone had him. Not true....not you I often say.
Every horse is created different, and some can carry weight better than others.
Not believing it matters is the equivalent of not believing physics.
In a perfect lab setting with all variables being equal, we'll race 2 1200lb robots around a track.
Yours can carry 126 lbs, mine will carry 122 lbs. Let's wager, I'll spot you 9 races in a race to 10.
1. Carry 126lbs.over A Mile And A Quarter
2.face 19 Others In A Race
3.deal With A Crowd Of 100,000 Screaming People
4face Squeezes And Traffic Like Most Have Never Dealt With
5.jockeys With Butterflys In There First Derby Mounts.
6.jeff Mullins In Your Barn With A Syringe {priceless}
I Cant Get Carried Away With It Like Most Of The Die Hards On Here Seem To..