My KY Derby Line

horses4courseshorses4courses Junior Member
edited April 2009 in Horse Racing Forum
Here's my line on the Derby's top contenders:

I Want Revenge 3-1
Dunkirk 5-1
Quality Road 6-1
Pioneer o' Nile 7-1
Friesan Fire 8-1
Chocolate Candy 20-1
General Quarters 20-1
Hold Me Back 20-1
Musket Man 20-1
Papa Clem 20-1
Regal Ransom 20-1 (Godolphin entry 10-1)
Desert Party 25-1 (Godolphin entry 10-1)
Square Eddie 30-1
West Side Bernie 30-1
Win Willy 30-1

Food for thought?

Comments

  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited April 2009
    First off, welcome aboard!

    Your numbers are similar to what i've seen around town, but i firmly believe that I Want Revenge is too low @ 3/1. Dunkirk is also low @ 5/1...i don't understand how he's being ranked ahead of horses with greater credentials. As far as post-time odds however, i think you're definitely in the ballpark with the top 5 contenders. It tends to be rather unpredicatable after that. I have heard some speculation that Desert Party will go off reasonably low, as in single-digits. I don't really buy it right right now, but i suppose a lot of it has to do with how hard the Racing Form pushes him. I know that he's gotten some very favorable reviews from Mike Welsch, in fact i posted a link to his videos in another thread.
  • horses4courseshorses4courses Junior Member
    edited April 2009
    DiscreetCat wrote: »
    First off, welcome aboard!

    Your numbers are similar to what i've seen around town, but i firmly believe that I Want Revenge is too low @ 3/1. Dunkirk is also low @ 5/1...i don't understand how he's being ranked ahead of horses with greater credentials. As far as post-time odds however, i think you're definitely in the ballpark with the top 5 contenders. It tends to be rather unpredicatable after that. I have heard some speculation that Desert Party will go off reasonably low, as in single-digits. I don't really buy it right right now, but i suppose a lot of it has to do with how hard the Racing Form pushes him. I know that he's gotten some very favorable reviews from Mike Welsch, in fact i posted a link to his videos in another thread.

    Thanks for the welcome!

    I know what you mean about the price on IWR - 3/1 is low.
    He was impressive in the Wood, no doubt, but he is vulnerable, and due to bounce.
    The public will bet him, though. They will also bet Dunkirk. He may be lower at post time.
    Quality Road has done nothing wrong - neither have Pioneer, or Friesan Fire.
    Outside of those, it's difficult to figure who will step up and fire a big number.

    As far as betting the race, I never get carried away on the Derby.
    I bet a few hundred races a year - the Derby offers no more value than most.
    The show pool can be attractive sometimes, but I don't always bet the race.

    The bragging rights attached to cashing a winning Derby ticket is a major factor for many betting the race. Never did much for me, or my bankroll!

    Give me the Breeders' Cup over Ky Derby anytime, when it comes to making good scores.

    Good luck!
  • cinfrontcinfront Senior Member
    edited April 2009
    You are right DC, my horse Dunkirk should be 10-1 or better. I quess the line makers are seeing it like I see it. Never raced as a 2 yrold. 3 life time, excellent Florida Derby performance looking as if he was going to over take Quality Road. Plenty of room for improvemment, and that improvement puts him inthe winners circle. But of course we all know the Derby has it own way with the Colts. Traffic, Banging, Squeezing, Trampled, Getting Shuffled Back, you name it it's in this race. So the out come turns out to be everybodies nightmare. ( Giacamo ) Please no, not this year. Anyway, who would have thought that Square Eddie would be at these odds. WATCH OUT he circle that field , in his last race with a burst of speed. May The Horse Be With Yoyu.
  • DUNCODUNCO Banned
    edited April 2009
    Odds Have A Lot To Do With The Economy There Will Be Less Big Betters This Year And More Small Betters I Think 70-80% Of The Derby Bettors Don't Have A Clue About Horses Or Betting. There Out To Have Fun Like Going To Bingo ..gives The Dads A Reason To Go To Otb ..to Bet Moms Gray Horse...

    This Year It Might Be A Good Time To Look At The Place And Show Bets

    My Bets Are $1ex Box The Oil Men Nags Along With The Five Dual Quif. Thats Only A $42 Bet And The Crossover Oaks -derby Double Three Fillies With The Seven ---i Think There Only Offering $2 Dd If I Can Get $1 It Will Be All With The Seven So Thats Around $45+/-
    Day Of The Derby Will Be Looking To Hit The Pick Three With The Derby The Final Leg...3x3x7 --$63 Most Of The Bettors Will Be Too Worked Up To Put This Bet Together....that Gives Me Four Top Races For About $160 With A Outcome That Could Be Well Over$2000.............on -$160
    Love To See A Little Rain To Add To The Mix But Just A Little.... Brings Out That Nice Red Clay ...
  • hue21998hue21998 Banned
    edited April 2009
    thats why any real money i put in is on the supers just trying to get lucky and hit one. they at least pay although i dont know if a super could be called a value bet, its more like a crap shoot
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited April 2009
    cinfront wrote: »
    You are right DC, my horse Dunkirk should be 10-1 or better. I quess the line makers are seeing it like I see it. Never raced as a 2 yrold. 3 life time, excellent Florida Derby performance looking as if he was going to over take Quality Road. Plenty of room for improvemment, and that improvement puts him inthe winners circle. But of course we all know the Derby has it own way with the Colts. Traffic, Banging, Squeezing, Trampled, Getting Shuffled Back, you name it it's in this race. So the out come turns out to be everybodies nightmare. ( Giacamo ) Please no, not this year. Anyway, who would have thought that Square Eddie would be at these odds. WATCH OUT he circle that field , in his last race with a burst of speed. May The Horse Be With Yoyu.

    Unfortunately there is no chance in hell Dunkirk will go off at 10-1 or higher. This was ESPN's golden boy this year. The FL Derby surrounded this horse's big run into the turn over QR's game win. This much publicity on a race where many people who bet once a year wager, I don't see him going off any higher than an 8-1 third/fourth choice.

    Assuming none of top 5 draw horrible posts
    IWR 7-2
    QR 4-1
    Dunkirk 6-1
    POTN 7-1
    Fresian Fire 8-1
  • DraynayDraynay Banned
    edited April 2009
    I don't know.... but I think a lot more money is going to go on Dunkirk than people think. I just can't see IWR being the favorite when the gates open. Does anyone really believe he can beat horses like Quality Road and Dunkirk ? He could not beat POTN so I find it hard to believe he will go off as the favorite.

    I will not have FF or IWR on any of my tickets.

    That could change if the track is really wet on Derby Day.... how can you leave FF off if things come up muddy?
  • clockerqclockerq Junior Member
    edited April 2009
    You've got nothing between 8/20-1. I think Musket Man and possibly Papa Clem will fall below 20-1 and above 10-1.
    The weather and Quality Roads condition makes it impossible to predict the odds as of today.

    FF was fit and ready for the LA Derby. He was going to win anyway. The track was sealed and not deep at all. If Churchill, which is already deep, takes on a lot of water, the track will be nothing like the one FF ran on. A lot of $ will be bet on Ff for the wrong reason. If you like him, that sucks, if you don't, its a great thing.
  • DraynayDraynay Banned
    edited April 2009
    Lol.... dirt + water = mud
  • clockerqclockerq Junior Member
    edited April 2009
    dray u don't get it. a sloppy track means surface mud but the foundation is still firm. its very common for some sloppy track times to be as fast or even faster than fast track. Mud is deep and slow and tiring. The Churchill track now, under fast conditions is considered deep. The prevailing opinion is that management wants is deep and slow which also means safer. So if it rains on an already deep conditioned track, the mud will have a tremendous effect on the race. The track that FF ran on for the LA Derby, was fast to me.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited April 2009
    When's the last time a horse who has NEVER WON A STAKES RACE went off @ 5/1 in the Kentucky Derby? That's the situation with Dunkirk right now.
  • InTheFogInTheFog Senior Member
    edited April 2009
    Summer Bird, isn't on there he's my pick, lay back stay out of trouble in that mad race for the clubhouse turn and improve off his last, he has excellent breeding for a mile & a 1/4 I thought he could win the Arkansas Derby off his maiden win so I'm sticking with him a $100 across the board, I'd have a good day even if he just shows.
  • hue21998hue21998 Banned
    edited April 2009
    As you know Fog-Man you got my vote
  • clockerqclockerq Junior Member
    edited April 2009
    Good luck Inthefog. I used to love horses like him. Thats why I had GatoDelSol back in the day. But his #'s suggest that hes going to be 20 lengths back. There would have to be a massive pace collapse and others who look like they will get the distance will have to hang for him to make the board. IMO.
  • horses4courseshorses4courses Junior Member
    edited April 2009
    horses4courses wrote: »
    Here's my line on the Derby's top contenders:

    I Want Revenge 5-2
    Dunkirk 5-1
    Pioneer o' Nile 6-1
    Friesan Fire 7-1
    Chocolate Candy 15-1
    Desert Party 15-1
    General Quarters 20-1
    Hold Me Back 20-1
    Papa Clem 20-1
    Regal Ransom 20-1
    Advice 25-1
    Musket Man 25-1
    West Side Bernie 30-1
    Mr. Hot Stuff 30-1



    Pre post position draw, here's my updated odds - the draw may cause some small adjustments
  • yahooninoyahoonino Junior Member
    edited April 2009
    wach for pioner of the nile,,,is my best bet
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