Draynay Question?

hue21998hue21998 Banned
edited April 2009 in Horse Racing Forum
I was going to ask you this after the derby but i guess is fitting to ask now. Keep in mind this is not to bust any kahonas honestly.

I was goin to ask if running a track record on a juiced track was worth being cost the Derby. If QR were in the derby and lost I feel IMO that the race at the Gulf was possibly the biggest factor why. With the Derby not run yet I actually can at this time still ask that question. Was a Juiced track and track record worth what it cost horse owner, trainer and fans? the possbility of infamy, winning the Kentucky Derby.

Comments

  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited April 2009
    I think the hardened Gulfstream surface (on Florida Derby Day) may have been responsible for the quarter-cracks.
  • fbwinnersfbwinners Senior Member
    edited April 2009
    I think the hardened Gulfstream surface (on Florida Derby Day) may have been responsible for the quarter-cracks.



    Cat you really think MHS can win the derby? I cannot see it at all, maybe a piece in the super or z-5. His bet race was his maiden win and they past two races all he has done is pass tired horses.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited April 2009
    Do i think he WILL win? No.

    Do i think he CAN win? Yes.

    I think he's an improving horse, and it's obvious that he wants more distance. The 1 1/4 miles should definitely be to his advantage. If he gets a fast pace to run at, and he gets a clear path, i think he could potentially do it.
  • fbwinnersfbwinners Senior Member
    edited April 2009
    Do i think he WILL win? No.

    Do i think he CAN win? Yes.

    I think he's an improving horse, and it's obvious that he wants more distance. The 1 1/4 miles should definitely be to his advantage. If he gets a fast pace to run at, and he gets a clear path, i think he could potentially do it.



    This horse reminds me of a stone cold plodder, I bet him the day he broke his maiden and he hasn't flashed that type of race since. Would be a Giacomo if he won it with only a maiden win under his belt.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited April 2009
    I don't think there's much question that MHS would've run second in the SA Derby if Nakatani had kept him out of traffic instead of steering him down towards the rail. Sometimes i wonder what the hell those guys are thinking. I even read a quote from Nakatani after the race saying that he "gave him a little education". This in a race where he needed to run at least second in order to pick up enough graded earnings for the Derby (or so everyone thought at the time).
  • hue21998hue21998 Banned
    edited April 2009
    Nakatani certainly had to be making an excuse for himself. That move alone may have been cost him his mount.
  • DraynayDraynay Banned
    edited April 2009
    hue21998 wrote: »
    I was going to ask you this after the derby but i guess is fitting to ask now. Keep in mind this is not to bust any kahonas honestly.

    I was goin to ask if running a track record on a juiced track was worth being cost the Derby. If QR were in the derby and lost I feel IMO that the race at the Gulf was possibly the biggest factor why. With the Derby not run yet I actually can at this time still ask that question. Was a Juiced track and track record worth what it cost horse owner, trainer and fans? the possbility of infamy, winning the Kentucky Derby.

    There is no proof that the track had anything to do with his quarter crack. It may be true that Quality Road will not win the Kentucky Derby but Buckpasser did not win it either because of a quarter crack and he had a decent career.:thumbup1:
  • jtc1984jtc1984 Banned
    edited April 2009
    Following all this logic it's safe to say that Dunkirk will not win the Derby either....
  • DraynayDraynay Banned
    edited April 2009
    jtc1984 wrote: »
    Following all this logic it's safe to say that Dunkirk will not win the Derby either....

    If you don't think Dunkirk is going to win then... .why don't you post who is.... come back here after the Derby and let me know how betting against Dunkirk worked out for you....:laughing:
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited April 2009
    jtc1984 wrote: »
    Following all this logic it's safe to say that Dunkirk will not win the Derby either....

    Disagree. While I will not be betting Dunkirk, logic IMO actually gives some favor to Dunkirk. Dunkirk is a flex/closer. He made up ALOT of ground on the leader against an extreme speed bias.
  • DUNCODUNCO Banned
    edited April 2009
    lets look at the fl derby again :
    $750,000 Florida Derby (gr. I, Race 10, 5:44 p.m.), 3-Year-Olds, 1 1/8 Miles
    PP. Horse, Weight, Jockey
    1. Toby the Coal Man (KY), 122, Julien R. Leparoux
    2. Quality Road (VA), 122, John R. Velazquez
    3. Casey's On Call (FL), 122, E. T. Baird
    4. Dunkirk (KY), 122, Garrett K. Gomez
    5. Sincero (FL), 122, Elvis Trujillo
    6. Theregoesjojo (KY), 122, Kent J. Desormeaux
    7. Danger to Society (KY), 122, Mario Madrid
    8. Europe (KY), 122, Christopher P. DeCarlo
    9. Stately Character (KY), 122, Rene R. Douglas


    has any horse come out and hit the board.i was on sincero derby and chased the the nag when he ran 5th against non winners of 2 ,i know jojo ran in the shitter, q-road hurt, the other not sure ..europe & danger didn't run..........
  • DraynayDraynay Banned
    edited April 2009
    I am taking Dunkirk... the horse that finished 2nd in the Florida Derby to win it all..... Dunco tell me who you are taking and meet me here after the Derby and lets compare notes.
  • jtc1984jtc1984 Banned
    edited April 2009
    I posted IWR a while back but i guess you missed it while you were FLUFFING QR for 2 weeks....the logic I am following is that the cement track down here in Fla. will not yield a winner....Dunkirk is all hype, especially now....I do not pretend to have any of the knowledge you guys have in horse racing....my simple observations tell me that IWR was quite courageous in his victory in the Wood and that he ran it on a real dirt track....something some of the contenders in this Derby have little or no experience or success...good luck to us all....
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited April 2009
    jtc1984 wrote: »
    I posted IWR a while back but i guess you missed it while you were FLUFFING QR for 2 weeks....the logic I am following is that the cement track down here in Fla. will not yield a winner....Dunkirk is all hype, especially now....I do not pretend to have any of the knowledge you guys have in horse racing....my simple observations tell me that IWR was quite courageous in his victory in the Wood and that he ran it on a real dirt track....something some of the contenders in this Derby have little or no experience or success...good luck to us all....

    FWIW, I Want Revenge is my current derby selection as well. It'll take a very bad work/draw to steer me off of him.
  • DUNCODUNCO Banned
    edited April 2009
    Draynay wrote: »
    I am taking Dunkirk... the horse that finished 2nd in the Florida Derby to win it all..... Dunco tell me who you are taking and meet me here after the Derby and lets compare notes.

    #1 i already have a bet with you that q-road or dunkirk will be in front of sq ed for 50-1
    # 2 i already posted what i was doing the five dual quif. plus the two oil men horses 7 horse ex box and the oaks derby dd 3 fillies with the seven , then i am playing the pick 3 with the derby being the last leg 3x3x7 my total bet is $150..........i put it in early and sit back and take bets from all the big mouths at the bar that know it all you know like the guys that said big brown was going to win the belmont...war emblem....smarty jones (i think i made $5k on that one )...........now you take your ra & dunkirk and get in line with the other 10,000 people that picked it and only took them 5 minutes to pick you been at it 4 weeks 4 weeks 4weeks 4weeks 4 weeks 4weeks now i sound like you a broken record
  • DraynayDraynay Banned
    edited April 2009
    All that bs and you never picked a horse ?
  • DUNCODUNCO Banned
    edited April 2009
    Draynay wrote: »
    All that bs and you never picked a horse ?

    the derby in a game of chance ...i bet smart ...who the best horse ? who the fastest horse?

    or who will go on and lets say run in all three races and maybe win the travers ............the oil men have the best of the best but this is a redneck sport in the usa ..their going to take their toys home after the party is over along with the 1000 kids that they can fit on the boat...
    PON GREAT HORSE BUT HE OWNES CAL ....SQ ED HE'S BETTER THEN DUNKIRK,BUT NEEDS MORE RACES UNDER HIS BELT ... IWR I HATE DUTROW SO I GOT BAD TASTE,,,,,CHALK CANDY JERRY TOO OLD TO STICK AROUND, HE WILL DO THE PON SHOW IN CAL SOO THAT LEAVES WEST SIDE BERNIE
    Strengths: Clearly able to out-run the Gilded Time sprinter’s pedigree on the dam side of his bloodlines, he’s scored multiple wins around two turns to open his career. Versatile runner has won on dirt and all-weather surfaces and shown the ability to travel with success. Overcame trouble to win his debut at Monmouth, showing determination beyond his experience.

    Weaknesses: Obviously lightly raced, but has received much education in those two starts. He has to prove he can handle the best runners from the major New York, California and international circuits.
    THATS IT!!!! WEST SIDE BERNIE CHECK OUT HIS WORK THE OTHER DAY ......ALSO I WAS DRUNK THE OTHER DAY AND WHEN PON WON THE SANTA CLAUS DERBY I TOLD A LOT OF PEOPLE HE WOULD WIN ONLY STATING THAT BECAUSE I DON'T KNOW IF YOU WERE THERE...............
  • DraynayDraynay Banned
    edited April 2009
    I think you need to drop the whole Square Eddie thing.... he is out of the Derby !!!
  • DUNCODUNCO Banned
    edited April 2009
    Draynay wrote: »
    I think you need to drop the whole Square Eddie thing.... he is out of the Derby !!!

    WOULD YOU LIKE TO BET ON THAT TOO?
  • DraynayDraynay Banned
    edited April 2009
    Sorry you haven't heard yet ... but he is out.
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