Any Wizard fans out there? I'll buy his Preakness package..
hotbustop
Member
and post if someone is willing to purchase his preakness card for tomorrow.
Let me know
Thanks
Let me know
Thanks
Comments
Isn't it only like $8? lol
Wizard's Major Stakes for Saturday, May 16th, 2009
Preakness Stakes - Pimlico Park Race 12
Pimlico Park Race 12 - Preakness Stakes 1 3/16m Grade I 3yo, Purse: $1,000,000. Post Time: 6:15 PM ET
Race Synopsis INTRODUCTION
As this year‟s result of the Kentucky Derby bears out, there is simply no “magic formula” for picking the winner of the “Run for the Roses”. And, for that matter, any thoroughbred race you handicap. Yet, year after year, handicappers spend hours trying to isolate the main contenders for the Derby, by speed figures, pace analysis, pedigree, connections, recency, last-out- performance, jockeys, and whatever other „pet handicapping aspect‟ they hold dear in order to select the winner. As you well know, none of that worked in 2009. I don‟t use speed figures in my handicapping, but to help explain Mind The Bird‟s mind boggling improvement in the Derby, I will illustrate by using the BRIS numbers (generated by Brisnet.com). For example, looking at the first two finishers of this year‟s Kentucky, Derby, The winner Mine That Bird and second place finisher Pioneerof the Nile, had never recorded a triple digit BRIS speed figure. In fact, Mine That Bird‟s highest speed figure to date was 90, in last year‟s Breeders‟ Cup Juvenile, over a synthetic surface at Santa Anita He ran last of twelve that day. With that in mind, Mine That Bird‟s electrifying performance at Churchill Downs two weeks ago obviously came out of left field. He his speed figure increased by 20 points. (Did I mention that he was winless in 2009, and could do no better than second in a stake at Sunland Park, in New Mexico?). While I take my hat off to Mine That Bird and his connections, his performance under the Twin Spires is a „head-scratcher‟ to say the least. His victory will be remembered on two fronts, first, for its implausibility, and second, for the manner in which he accomplished his victory in an „Arazi-like‟ manner. (Arazi won the 1991 Breeders‟ Cup Juvenile with a similar explosive run from far off the pace). Only time will tell whether Mind That Bird‟s Derby win was a complete fluke, or if the stars were in perfect alignment, as he delivered the race of a lifetime.
When handicapping the Preakness, one automatically looks at the Derby winner, and whether or not he can replicate that effort in Baltimore. Also, any horse that hit-the-board at Churchill Downs, is a good starting point as well, because it is indicative of recent good form. In addition, horses that were hindered by troubled trips in the Derby, might have been compromised by the track condition, or simply ran poorly with a substantive excuse, can be looked upon as contenders as well. There will obviously be some defections heading to Baltimore, and some new faces
will emerge also. Rachel Alexandra, the Kentucky Oaks winner, and a recent private purchase, is expected to attract attention, both on track and off while coming off that blowout victory. Big Drama, who was forced to skip the Derby because of an injury he sustained this winter, should make his presence felt as well while returning to the racing wars. Sprinkle in a couple of other fresh faces, and the Preakness is yet another handicapping puzzle to solve, one in which should be scrutinized to the fullest.
As handicappers, there is no better feeling than playing a race which leads to a big score. We don‟t even necessarily need to isolate the winner, but merely wager on a race in such a manner that generates a tidy profit. Don‟t get me wrong, handicapping a winner has its own rewards, but our main objective is not to secure bragging rights, but to make money. That is a concept that is lost on many people who play the races. After an inconceivable result like this year‟s Kentucky Derby, I tend to revisit a race to see what I might have overlooked, dissecting the past performances of the victor to come upon hints that led to his winning, and often times vastly-improved effort. Handicapping thoroughbred races is continual learning process. At times, it is an exercise in futility. It is a never-ending challenge, a task that many of us embrace on a daily basis.
The Field from the rail out
#
Name
ML
1
BIG DRAMA
10/1
2
MINE THAT BIRD
6/1
3
MUSKET MAN
8/1
4
LUV GOV
50/1
5
FRIESAN FIRE
6/1
6
TERRAIN
30/1
7
PAPA CLEM
12/1
8
GENERAL QUARTERS
20/1
9
PIONEEROF THE NILE
5/1
10
FLYING PRIVATE
50/1
11
TAKE THE POINTS
30/1
12
TONE IT DOWN
50/1
13
RACHEL ALEXANDRA
8/5
First Selection: (13) RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Asmussen Steven M/Borel C H)
Once in awhile, a horse runs a race in which you are mesmerized by the performance. You never forget where you were at the time. I was at Churchill Downs for this year‟s Kentucky Oaks. Since I was stationed in the press box, just a stone‟s throw from the paddock, I watched the Oaks on a large screen television. Rachel Alexandara was attempting to win her fifth straight race. As the overwhelming 1-5 favorite, it was just a matter of how many lengths she would win by, against six other fillies that were way overmatched. Trainer Bob Baffert, who saddled the second choice in the wagering, said a couple days before the race, “it would only be fair if Rachel Alexandra gave us a 1/16th of a mile head start, and maybe we would have chance to defeat her”. The head start would not have mattered, because she would have won anyway. Rachel‟s margin of victory of 20 ¼ lengths was not what impressed me, as much as the way she did it.
Prior to the race, I was in the paddock to observe all the fillies entered in the Oaks. I looked closely at each filly in their stalls, and when they were saddled, took a few spins around the walking ring. I had never seen Rachel up close and personal. If looks could kill, her six rivals should have stayed in the barn. What impressed me most about Rachel, was her physical makeup. I had never seen a three year old filly that was as long as she was from her regal head to the end of her hind quarters. Her coat glistened under the gray skies. When Jockey Calvin Borel was hoisted into the saddle, Rachel immediately arched her head towards the ground and both hers ears pricked up to the skies. Her eyes moved left and right to acknowledge the many eyes glued upon her as she made her way through the tunnel. It was game time. She was ready to step onto the field and acknowledge to the crowd of 150,000 who had traveled far and wide, that it was Rachel Alexandra who they came out to see, and she was not going disappoint them. The prior nine races on the card were just a dress rehearsal for the main event.
Through the years, I have seen several fillies defeat their male counterparts in major stakes races. In the 1980 Kentucky Derby, Genuine Risk defeated the boys by one length. In 1988 Winning Colors scorched the boys in the Santa Anita Derby as a prelude to the Derby four weeks later. In a stirring finish, Winning Color defeated one of the toughest fields ever assembled for the Run for the Rose, by a neck. In her wake were Risen Star, Seeking The Gold, Forty Niner and Regal Classic, who all went on to win several prestigious Grade 1 events. In 2007, Rags To Riches upset Curlin in the Belmont Stakes. Curlin was coming off an impressive victory in the Preakness, and later went on to be horse of the year. Ruffian, who was the best filly I have ever seen in over forty years, was entered in what was called “The Great Match Race”. Ruffian would square off against Foolish Pleasure, who was considered the best male in the land. The two hooked up right out of the gate with Ruffian securing her position inside her rival. Both fought tooth and nail down the backstretch. The pace was fast and furious
as the two gladiators moved down the backstretch. Ruffian put her nose in front, and it was just a matter of time, that she would kiss her rival goodbye and good riddance. In a gut wrenching blink of an eye, Ruffian broke down. The crowd was stunned and horrified, and then tears flowed throughout the cavernous Belmont Park.
Rachael Alexandra is poised to add her name to the list of great fillies that defeated their male counterparts. If she runs her race, the Preakness will be added to her lofty resume. The question Rachel must answer Saturday is: can she fend off several rivals, whose jockey‟s will be eyeballing her as soon as the gate opens? Rachel will have to earn the victory, as it will not be handed to her. Since she has not faced a stern battle in all four starts this year, it will be interesting to see how she will react to the heat. There are three scenarios: When the onslaught starts on the far turn, Rachel could succumb to the pressure. I don‟t envision this happening. The second is she could be caught up in a hard fought battle the length of the stretch, while feeling the whip from Borel for the first time since she was a two year old. The third scenario, which is possible, is Rachel Alexandra cruising to the lead on the far turn, and drawing off to an easy victory.
The three year olds that Rachel will be facing in the Preakness are ripe for a quality filly to defeat. Only Quality Road, who was victorious in the Florida Derby, showed me any brilliance. Unfortunately, he suffered from two quarter cracks, which prevented him from making the Derby. He would have been my top selection. When I look over the horses that raced in the Derby, several looked alike in ability. Mine That Bird who demolished field at 50-1, may have exposed them as just an ordinary bunch that have distance limitations. Obviously, you can say that Mine That Bird clearly relished the wet track, and his other eighteen rivals did not. All this will be answered in the Preakness, which is run at 1 3/16th mile. There is a slight chance as of this writing, that there may be some rain on Saturday. Most likely the track will be dry. If so, no horse will have any excuses unless they suffer a bad trip. With Rachel Alexandra‟s superb tactical speed, and the fact that there is not much early lick in the field, especially when Hull was taken out of the race to await a stake on Belmont Stakes day. Rachel is more likely than not, to a have a good journey over a course that favors her running style. With seven wins, and two second place finishes in ten career starts, she clearly knows her way to the winners circle. Her lone defeat was in her debut going 4 ½ furlongs at Churchill.
Soon after the Kentucky Oaks, Rachel Alexandra was sold for a reported ten million dollars to Jess Jackson, who also owns Curlin. She was transferred into the barn of Steve Asmussen, whom I consider one of the very best horseman in the country. However, I must tip my hat to her former trainer Hal Wiggins, who did an unbelievable job developing Rachel Alexandra. This change is unfortunate, but Jackson put up his money, and
his decision to switch trainers is his prerogative. At least he has decided to keep Calvin Borel aboard the filly, who has proven to have great rapport with her. Borel is five for five on Rachel. His confidence is definitely in another stratosphere at the present time. When jockeys are in this kind of zone, horses know it. Rachel is fully aware of this. When you add up all the ingredients, it will take a big performance by her foes on Preakness day to upend a potential superstar. Her rival trainers know it, and so do all the others, who have witnessed Rachel Alexandra‟s recent triumphs.
What should we expect from Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness? I am aware she is the 8-5 favorite, and must win breaking from the far outside post (13). Nevertheless, I believe she could be something real special, while the others are not. Because of her draw, Rachel is expected to be loaded last. This is a plus, as the other horses inside of her, will be standing in the gate longer than her, especially the horses breaking from inside posts. Rachel Alexandra is no Big Brown at this point of her career, but when he won from post twenty in last year‟s Kentucky Derby, many people said he could not overcome the draw. I felt it did not matter. Big Brown had proven he was far superior than then his opposition. Rachel Alexandra has superb tactical speed, with no horses breaking to her outside. She always breaks well from the gate, which is imperative on Saturday. If she does, Borel can watch the race develop inside of him, and take up a stalking position in third or fourth position. Rachel likes racing outside of horses. Hopefully Borel does not lose too much ground into the first turn. He does have the length of the stretch to avoid this. Rachel Alexandra, has never lost when she has the lead at the top of the stretch. Her race will be won or lost midway on the far turn, when Borel makes his move. If she can bust the race open at that point, I expect the rest of the field to be running for second money. If Rachel is unable to go by, and has to work hard to pass the front runner, this will be the moment of truth, as to whether or not she is as good as I think she is.
Second Selection: (1) BIG DRAMA (Fawkes David/Velazquez J R)
If there wasn‟t enough drama already in this year‟s Preakness Stakes with Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, and the welcomed addition of the newly acquired three-year-old filly Rachael Alexandra, here comes some more on to the big stage. Big Drama, who was forced to take a pass on this year‟s Kentucky Derby due to a leg injury he incurred when he kicked himself in stall this winter, requiring surgery as a result, is all set to take his place on center stage of this traveling road show called the Triple Crown.
Since dropping his debut effort last July at Calder, not one horse has finished in front of him in six subsequent starts. His biggest accomplishment to date was a gritty triumph in the Grade 3 Delta Downs
Jackpot last December, culminating a highly-successful juvenile campaign. With obvious Kentucky Derby aspirations, trainer David Fawkes had to postpone Big Drama‟s three-year-old debut, so that the aforementioned leg wound could heal properly. Consequently, Big Drama would not make an appearance in 2009, until late in the Gulfstream Park meet, competing in the Grade 2 Swale Stakes on the Florida Derby undercard. Big Drama picked up right where he left off in 2008, (Well sort off.) Allowed to carve out a modest pace in a compact field in his comeback effort, Big Drama responded gamely when challenged by This Ones For Phil shortly after turning into the stretch. With jockey Eibar Coa aboard, he drifted out a bit, and then bumped the race favorite during a stirring stretch battle, while showing no signs of rustiness. He proved narrowly best while giving away a recency and fitness advantage to This Ones For Phil, demonstrating no ill effects of his untimely injury. However, it didn‟t take long for a Steward‟s Inquiry into the stretch run to be posted, and ultimately an objection by jockey Edgar Prado to be lodged against him as well. He was subsequently placed second for interference, and while he didn‟t officially come away with a victory, but Big Drama was back, and in a big way.
What can we expect from Big Drama in the Preakness? Drawing the rail, and getting a top speed rider in John Velazquez, I fully expect “run and gun tactics” from him. If Big Drama is to win this race, it will be on the front end,turning away all challenges for the lead, and then withstanding the off-the-pace runners in the stretch. Since his gritty effort in the Swale, Big Drama has trained magnificently at his Calder homebase for trainer David Fawkes, and he appears poised for a top effort. Should Velazquez be allowed to set a controlled pace on the lead, I have no reservations that the he can take the Preakness field gate to wire if Rachel Alexandra does not fire her best shot. In addition, I am of the opinion that 1 3/16 miles is well within his scope, as Big Drama has won twice around two turns in the past. While he has never defeated, nor competed against this caliber of competition in the past, the same could have been said about Mine That Bird prior to the Derby. And just look at what he did.
Third Selection: (9) PIONEEROF THE NILE (Baffert Bob/Gomez G K)
Pioneerof the Nile exemplifies the word consistency. Since switched to the barn of recently inducted Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert last December, he has won four races. His lone defeat was his second place finish to Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby. Two of those victories were in Grade 1 stakes, the others in Grade 2‟s. Not only is Pioneerof the Nile made of hickory, he is also extremely versatile. He can stalk, or take back, and make one run. The key to his success is if rider Garrett Gomez can get him to relax early on. In the Derby, Pioneerof the Nile never tugged on his rider. He showed good speed from the start, cruising up to the leaders as smooth as silk. As the field turned for home, it appeared certain that
Pioneer would take command. Once in front, he is one tough customer to run down. Unfortunately for his connections, and those that wagered on him, no one could foresee the explosive closing run from last place by Mine That Bird. Nevertheless, not one other horse could outfinish Pioneerof the Nile for second. It could be said that Musket Man, who ran third, and fourth place finisher Papa Clem ran better, as a result of having experienced “tough trips”, while Pioneer never had a straw in his path. The bottom line is he would not let those two pass him, even though they had every chance to do so in the closing yards. That heart is what separates Pioneerof the Nile from the others. You remove The Bird from the race, and he is your winner.
Prior to the Derby, Pioneer had never run on conventional dirt. All you had to go by was his two excellent workouts over the Churchill Downs course and morning gallops. In every case, he proved that the transition from synthetic surfaces to dirt would prove no deterrence as well as having to travel 1 ¼ miles. Both Baffert and owner Ahmed Zayat were confident, and so was I. Handicappers who rely on speed figures, all felt he was too slow to win. Those numbers were over synthetic surfaces which have proven not to translate well to the dirt. (The proof in the pudding is that he earned his highest career “speed figure” in the Derby, and that was over slop. What I cared most about was his consistency, will to win, and his connections.)
What should we expect from Pioneerof the Nile in the Preakness? Whether or not Pioneerof the Nile catches a dry or wet surface in the Preakness, what we do know is that he will bring his “A” race, which could be good enough to win. The problem is that he will be facing two legitimate new shooters, the great filly Rachel Alexandra and Big Drama. In Rachel‟s case, we know she is an exceptional filly, who is on the brink of stardom. In Big Drama, you have a fresh and fit horse that has superb tactical speed, and just like Pioneerof the Nile, he loves to win. In my gut, I just don‟t feel that Pioneer can beat the filly, though he stands a good chance to defeat everyone else.
Supposedly ready for another go at it in the Preakness, is the Kentucky Derby favorite Friesian Fire. I have to admit that I was more than a little bit puzzled that he was backed down to favoritism in that race. His effort in the Kentucky Derby was just as perplexing. True, he was catching a wet track, which he proved he relished in the Louisiana Derby, when he won by seven lengths. Fair Grounds slop is not the same as Churchill‟s. In addition, he worked too fast days before the Derby, and pulled up after the work very tired, which did not help. When I was in the paddock for the saddling of all the horses in the Derby, I did not know what to make of Friesan Fire with his head to the back of his stall and hardly moving a muscle. I took it to mean that he was extremely relaxed, which you want to see when a three year old is running 1 ¼ miles for the first time. But, I was worried that he was too lethargic, and simply had no interest in running. Friesan Fire was reported to have grabbed his quarter, and had sustained several cuts during the running of the Derby. While I do not doubt that to be true, the mere fact that he is even being considered for the Preakness, makes me wonder if those incidents had an inpact on him that day. Friesan Fire reported home next-to-last in a truly disappointing and sub-par effort. Perhaps I was correct in my assumption, that even before being saddled, something was amiss.
Many handicappers would be inclined to simply draw a line through Freisan Fire's effort at Churchill Downs. While I can certainly understand, if
not agree, with that train of thought, Friesan Fire is still an unproven quantity outside of Louisiana. Despite the fact that he defeated Papa Clem quite handily in the Louisiana Derby, that race was in March. Friesan Fire held a “homecourt advantage” in that contest, having been stabled at the Fair Grounds since November. He had also won two races over that track, both in stakes races. I suppose that his brilliant workouts leading up to the Derby, and the expertise of his trainer, Larry Jones, were reason enough to bring about a sentimental wager or two. However, I am still not convinced that he is capable of winning the Preakness. That‟s not to say that he can‟t, but he will need to rebound in a big way.
What can we expect from Friesan Fire in the Preakness? Since his Derby debacle, Friesan Fire has come back to literally “scorch” the Pimlico track, working an „eye-catching‟ five furlongs in a lively in 58 2/5 on May 12, enabling trainer Larry Jones to pronounce him good-to-go. Problem is, good-to-go where. Bet down to 7/2 odds in the 20-horse Derby field, he barely ran six furlongs before calling it a day. Now, back on two weeks rest, he‟s ready to saddle-up again, hopefully with a more typical effort. What to do, what to do. One thing that can be said, Friesan Fire has never had the chance to reproduce his Louisiana Derby effort. While that race seems like it happened a lifetime ago, that effort, coupled with some sparkling works, propelled him to favoritism at Churchill Downs two weeks ago. Any semblance of that effort legitimizes him as a bonafide contender. But whether he can regroup within a short period of time remains to be seen. A win by him would not be shocking, but I do prefer others. And, as we all know, once the gates open, it is anybody‟s race.
The Remainder of the Field (In order of preference)
(2) MINE THAT BIRD (Woolley Bennie L Jr/Smith M E)
“Freaked”. That is the word that I have heard and seen most often in print, to somehow depict Mine That Bird‟s electrifying performance in this year‟s Derby. Whether or not you agree with that assessment of his effort in the Run for the Roses or not, one incontrovertible fact remains. Mine That Bird is the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner, regardless of how improbable his victory was.
Rather than try to rationalize or explain away his unbelievable performance that day, I prefer to just turn the page and direct my attention to today‟s race. Because, no matter how hard you might try, no one can reasonably say, with any accuracy, why Mine That Bird blew away the field, closing from dead last, to win by 6 ¾ widening lengths. Can “lightning in a bottle” strike a second time in the Preakness, or for that matter, ever again?
Mine That Bird entered the Kentucky Derby starting gate in deserved obscurity, and deservedly so. Yet, when all was said and done, his name was on the lips of thoroughbred handicappers and fans throughout the world. Taken farther off-the-pace than ever before, Mine That Bird could see the entire Kentucky Derby field under new rider Calvin Borel. Seemingly in no particular hurry, Borel was content with his position early on until finally asking Mine That Bird to pick up the pace at the midway point down the backstretch. Wow, did he ever! Mine That Bird fashioned an “Arazi like” burst of late speed, which saw him rapidly make up ground with every stride. He continued to reduce his deficit along the inside, which coincidentally was the best part of the track all afternoon. Mine That Bird, now in full stride, began picking off runners one by one around the far turn. It would only be a matter of time before he would stand the racing world on its ear. After a deft move by Borel to maneuver past a tiring runner, Mine That Bird was then guided back to the rail as he continued his sustained rally. Mine That Bird subsequently squeezed thru a narrow opening along the rail nearing midstretch, to draw alongside Pioneerof the Nile. Eventually, he wrestled the lead away from him, drawing clear with giant strides enroute to a startling victory. The rest, as they say, is history, no matter how incredible it may be.
What can we expect from Mine That Bird in the Preakness? In all honesty, I really can‟t say. His fortunes could be basically tied to the amount of water present in the Pimlico racetrack. With showers in the forecast, a wet track only enhances his chances on Saturday. In the Kentucky Derby, he sprouted water wings and splashed his way home to an upset victory. His form over a dry track leaves something to be desired, and his race in the Preakness will go long way in determining whether his Run for the Roses was an aberration, or he simply benefited from a moisture-laden surface. Then again, maybe both. Even though Calvin Borel has deserted him, he has a capable replacement rider in Mike Smith. One thing I am certain about Mine That Bird in the Preakness, I like him a lot less over a dry surface, no matter who is in the saddle.
(7) PAPA CLEM (Stute Gary/Bejarano R)
Papa Clem can surely be labeled one of the overachievers in the year‟s Preakness Stakes. This Kentucky homebred runner finally won when blinkers were removed at Santa Anita Park in late December. Since that time, his lone out-of-the money finish came in the Kentucky Derby earlier this month. His resurgence also coincided with a jockey change. Rafael Bejarano, rode him to a pair of victories and second-place finishes, prior to heading to Churchill Downs for the Derby.
I was apprehensive about Papa Clem‟s chances of emerging victorious in the Kentucky Derby. And, while he didn‟t win, I was impressed with his
ability to dispense yet another quality effort. In the "Run for the Roses", Papa Clem was with the pace from the outset. His newfound ability to rate, enabled Bejarano to place him within shouting distance of the lead as the field made its way down the backstretch. Papa Clem continued to maintain his forward position turning into the stretch, and then rallied in unison with Musket Man. For a brief moment, it looked as if he would have a say in the outcome. However, that was before Mine That Bird sprouted wings in the stretch, and left him and everybody else in his wake. Papa Clem persevered, but was unable to “punch it in” to at least finish second, despite having every opportunity to do so. He settled for fourth, as the extra furlong of the Derby seemed to be a bit beyond his scope. Then again, maybe the rigors of being on the Triple Crown trail this year were just starting to take their toll on him. Possibly, he was now, ever so slightly, showing signs of wear and tear, after an arduous three-year-old campaign.
What can we expect from Papa Clem in the Preakness? I don‟t think that a win is in the cards for him in Baltimore. While he was compromised somewhat during the stretch run, he simply couldn‟t get the job done when it counted most. I will using him on my tickets when I punch the “all” button.
(11) TAKE THE POINTS (Pletcher Todd A/Prado E S)
Take The Points has won twice, both at a one turn mile, at Belmont and Gulfstream over conventional dirt. In each race, he stalked the pace, and then attacked on the turn, before edging clear in the stretch. Pletcher elected to ship Take The Points to Santa Anita for the Grade 3 Sham on February 8th. This would be his first start over a synthetic surface and around two turns. Unfortunately, Take The Points had to take up the chase of the quality speedster, The Pamplemousse, who cleared early, and was a decisive winner, leading throughout. Take The Points was kept at Santa Anita and resurfaced April 4th in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. For the first time, Take The Points would meet up with Pioneerof The Nile, who, like the Pamplemousse, had established themselves as the top three year olds the west coast. Take The Points chased a moderate pace in third position. He held his ground, until being outfinished near the wire, to finish fourth. In the Preakness, Take The Points will be adding blinkers and is reunited with Edgar Prado who is two for two aboard the colt.
What should we expect from Take The Points in the Preakness? He will no doubt stalk the early pace in perfect striking position. It is expected that he will attack on the far turn. I expect him to make his presence felt at that point, but it is likely that Take The Point will run out of steam in the stretch. What I do like about him is not his lack of heart that does him in late, but he is not as good as the top tier of three year olds competing in the Preakness. Therefore, I will only include him in trifectas when I push the ALL button.
(6) TERRAIN (Stall Albert M Jr/Rose J)
Terrain stamped himself as a quality two year old right from the outset, winning his first two races sprinting. It is interesting, that he was entered in a $50,000 maiden claimer in his debut. Owner and breeder Adele Dilschneider, and trainer Al Stall possibly felt that Terrain could be a decent horse, but not a top class performer. If they did, they would not have risked him being purchased. In addition, he was a gelding, which meant that there was no future in the breeding shed. They guessed right, as there were no takers. After winning a minor stakes race at Mountaineer, Terrain was tested for class in the Grade 3 Arlington Washington Futurity. It was his first start over a synthetic surface. He showed a new dimension that day. Terrain stalked the pace in his first two wins. In the Futurity, he rallied from far back to be third, but was placed first, after the top two finishers came in sharply in deep stretch, impeding his progress, which probably cost him the win. He had earned a spot in the starting gate in the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at the prestigious Keeneland meet. Despite breaking from a tough outside, racing wide throughout, and having traffic trouble on the far turn, Terrain ran second. He easily defeated Pioneerof the Nile, who subsequently became the west coasts top three year old, and runner-up in the Kentucky Derby. Terrain‟s performance earned him a start in the Breeders‟ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita . He was a fast closing fourth, beaten less than three lengths in a fine performance. Despite stamping himself as a top class two year old, Terrain was also developing bad habits. The Breeders‟ Cup was the third straight race in which he showed absolutely no early speed from the start, and was one paced through the stretch. In his final start as a two year old, Terrain returned to speed tactics at Delta Downs, where he drew the advantageous inside post, over a track which is considered a “bull ring”, with it‟s very tight turns. Regular rider Jamie Theriot, urged him hard when the gates opened. He chased in second, until quitting badly in the stretch.
Terrain resurfaced three months later in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. He returned to his old ways of being very lethargic leaving the gate, and could only pass tired horses, for a well beaten third in his first start over a wet track. Since it was his first start off a layoff, I was willing to “give him one”, and watch him closely in the Grade 1 Bluegrass at Keeneland. He exhibited the same bad habits: a sluggish start and a one paced finish while racing wide. Terrain also benefitted from a track which favored outside closers.
What should we expect from Terrain in the Preakness? His connections bypassed the Derby to point for the Preakness. His running style is not suited to the sharper turns at Pimlico, and a course which is usually detrimental to deep closers. Terrain proved that he is in the second tier of
the top three year olds. He is a useful horse, who should be placed in a winning spot, to regain his confidence. The Preakness is clearly not that race.
(8) GENERAL QUARTERS (Mccarthy Thomas R/Leparoux Julien R)
The fact that General Quarters was claimed for a meager $20,000 in his career debut by owner and trainer Thomas McCarthy, certainly made for a heartwarming story, in the days leading up to this year‟s Kentucky Derby. He validated the fact that he was a legitimate contender for the Derby, with victories in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs in February, and once again with an upset win in the Grade 1 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland at odds of 14-1. However, that was before the Derby was run, and before Mine That Bird‟s shocking victory in the Run for the Roses and his eccentric connections grabbed the limelight.
But, as a result of his performance at Churchill Downs, I think the „jig is up‟ for the "General”. His non-descript effort in the Kentucky Derby gives credence to that. Clearly, many horses did not run well in the slop at Churchill Downs. General Quarters was one of them. He raced lethargically throughout the 1 1/4 test, and was never a factor at any time during the race, ultimately, finishing tenth while beaten more than 17 lengths. In both of his wins this year, General Quarters profited from perfect trips, under more difficult circumstances. While he could rebound, and perhaps run back to his victories in the Grade 1 Bluegrass and Grade 3 Sam Davis, I‟m afraid that even that type of performance, would not be nearly enough win the Preakness.
What can we expect from General Quarters in the Preakness? I did not hold the “General” in high regard heading into the Kentucky Derby. And, his tenth-place finish in Louisville did nothing to leave me with a favorable impression of him for today‟s Preakness. I will using him on my tickets when I punch the “all” button.
(4) LUV GOV (Lukas D Wayne/Theriot H J Ii)
Trainer Wayne Lukas has entered two horses in the Preakness. Flying Private and a new shooter Luv Gov. Flying Private, as expected, was up the track in the Derby. He ended up last in a field of nineteen, beaten 43 lengths. Why he is in the field on Saturday is anyone‟s guess. Lukas loves to be represented in Triple Crown races. Why he has entered Flying Private back in the Preakness is anyone‟s guess. Now Lukas has decided the more the merrier, so in comes Luv Gov, who comes off a 6 ½ length maiden win over the slop at Churchill on the Derby undercard. It would make more sense if Luv Gov was entered back in an entry level allowance race, instead of throwing him to the wolves. Like his uncoupled entry mate Flying
Private, they both would be better served to stay in the barn. I respect what Lukas has accomplished throughout his illustrious career. In recent years, he has not been the dominant trainer as he was in the past. One reason is that Lukas has not had the owners that provide him with top class horses. He still wins his fair share of races, but at times, he borders on the absurd. It is not fair to Luv Gov or Flying Private that they are placed in a spot like the Preakness, where they will both be in the vicinity of 50-1, as they deserve to be. Luv Gov is owned by Marylou Whitney. She has been a wonderful ambassador of the game for a long time. I am surprised she has agreed to run him.
What should we expect from Luv Gov in the Preakness. Absolutely nothing.
(10) FLYING PRIVATE (Lukas D Wayne/Garcia A)
I did not like Flying Private at all in the Kentucky Derby. He ended up beating just one horse that day. I feel the same way about his chances in the Preakness. He has won only once in eleven starts. Flying Private fit‟s much better at a flat mile rather than in a two turn route, especially at the Preakness distance of 1 3/16 miles. He does possess good tactical speed, however, when it comes time to “punch it in” in deep stretch, he has proven that he cannot seal the deal.
What should we expect from Flying Private in the Preakness? Wayne Lukas always likes to be represented in Triple Crown races. He has had great success in the past, but it would be prudent for him to give Flying Private a rest and point him for a softer spot at the right distance. In the Preakness, he will be running his eighth race in 2009. All seven of his races this year have been spaced between two and three weeks apart. In my opinion, Flying Private is being mismanaged. I wonder what will be left in his tank after Saturday.
(12) TONE IT DOWN (Komlo William R/Desormeaux K J)
The Federico Tesio, which is run at Pimlico, the same day as the Kentucky Derby, always produces at least one horse, which will enter the gate for the Preakness. One good handicapping angle is to look closely at horses, which have a recent race over the track, especially at the beginning of the meet. Tone It Down is the only horse in the field, which fit‟s this profile. Unfortunately for him, and his connections, it stops right there. In the Tesio, he sat a perfect inside trip, and could finish no better than third, beaten 5 ¼ lengths, at 9-1 odds. Both of Tone It Down‟s wins came at 1 1/16 miles, in very slow races. With only $54,000 in career earnings, a pedigree that clearly is more suited to shorter races than the 1 3/16 miles of the Preakness, it is mine boggling that he would be entered in this spot. I
guess if you want good tickets, to a stakes filled afternoon, highlighted by the second jewel of racing‟s Triple Crown, enter the race and see if your horse gets in. For trainer William Komlo and owners M & D stable, I can only hope they have a fun day.
Wagering Strategy Our top selection will be too short a price to recommend for a win bet, so we'll concentrate on primarily trifectas. Trifectas below are given in order of preference. If your budget is smaller than the $155 total of these trifectas, then my suggestion is to first eliminate the bottom trifecta, and work your way up until you're left with a play that you are comfortable with.
* Exactas 13-1, 13-9, reverse each for less
* TRIFECTAS
$1 Trifecta 13 / 1-2-3-5-9 / ALL = $55
$1 Trifecta 13 / 1-2-3-5-9 / 1-2-3-5-9 = $20
$1 Trifecta 1-9-13 / 1-9-13 / 1-2-3-5-9-13 = $24
$1 Trifecta 1-13 / 1-9-13 / ALL = $44
$2 Trifecta Box 1-9-13 = $12
TOTAL TRIFECTA PLAY FOR ALL 5 TICKETS = $155
I GAVE HIM $10 HE CLEANED THE JONH NOO