Thursday play from DiscreetPicks.com

DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
edited July 2009 in Horse Racing Forum
Hollywood - Race 5

#10 Cleisthenes (9/2 ml)

European import for Sadler was absolutely hammered at the windows in his debut overseas, getting bet down to 1/2 and then winning off by 6 easy lengths. Looks to be a private purchase out of that race, and he must be in fine fettle right now as Sadler is practically running him right off the plane. And of course, Sadler is fantastic with new acquisitions, hitting 23% with well over a 50% profit from 92 such starters. Here are some notes from the Racing Post site concerning Cleisthenes' debut:

Cleisthenes, who fetched �50,000 as a two-year-old, is an already gelded half-brother to a couple of winning milers. Well supported in the market beforehand, he wasn't best away but he soon raced very powerfully behind the leaders and once produced with his effort towards the outside of the field, forged right away. His rider had a bit of a job pulling him up after the line and, although this was a modest event, he can probably hold his own in better company.
Looks like this one can run a little bit, and should offer a nice price here as well. Mike Smith gets the call, and he's hit at 21% for Sadler with a nice flat-bet profit from 95 mounts. Post-position not ideal, but he figures to drop back behind the speed as soon as they leave the gate anyway, so he should be able to save some ground. It also appears that there will be a nice, contested pace here which may set it up for his late run. Lots to like here.

HRT record:

59 for 201 (29%)

$488.40 mutuels ($8.42 avg)

Comments

  • jtc1984jtc1984 Banned
    edited June 2009
    no doubt you have knowledge but you just want to share it in increments...good luck today...
  • jtc1984jtc1984 Banned
    edited June 2009
    Dc...looked at the race....this horse is going 1 1/16 in his first US start from the worst and widest post ...I don't think he'll hit the board from out there....I'm gonna use the 357 in a box....the 5 is bred well and the 3 should move up on the grass...the 7 can come right back with Bejerano...I think it will be too much to overcome for the 10
  • dodgers45dodgers45 Senior Member
    edited June 2009
    Really a mute point horse has been scratched out of race !!!
  • dodgers45dodgers45 Senior Member
    edited June 2009
    I like the 6,8, 9 in this race !! The 6 and 9 were right there last time out for each and the 8 gets blinkers today !!!
  • jtc1984jtc1984 Banned
    edited June 2009
    good luck....go Dodgers too... all the way this year
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited June 2009
    True that Cleithenes had drawn the unfavorable outside post, but i mentioned that in my analysis along with the reason why i didn't think it was huge problem. Also, the race is 1 1/16 miles, so there's a little bit of a run into the first turn. A flat mile would've caused a bigger problem.

    As Dodgers mentioned though, it's a moot point anyway as Cleisthenes has now been scratched. So here's another play instead:

    Churchill - Race 7

    #4 Red Rally (5/1 ml)

    2yo owned-and-trained by Merrill Scherer was purchased for $90k (60 times the sire's stud fee) at the February Ocala sale after breezing a quarter in 20.4, two ticks off the sale's best of 20.2. More importantly however, Red Rally worked heads-up on May 27 with Flatter Than Me, a previous owned-and-trained by Scherer winner who goes as the 9/5 ml favorite in Race 3 today. Borel gets tabbed for the ride here, and this one definitely looks live. Worth noting btw that Scherer is showing an obscene flat-bet profit of over 300% from 32 first-time starters over the last 17 months.
  • jtc1984jtc1984 Banned
    edited June 2009
    Good luck with that DC...I like the 2....he should like the off track...out of Sky Mesa
  • jtc1984jtc1984 Banned
    edited June 2009
    Cmon cat....a scratch and a third....you owe us one....what else you got today ....baseball???
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited June 2009
    Red Rally went off @ 6/1, led to midstretch and tired late to finish third.

    No baseball today; i like the Brewers but i won't lay that kind of price.
  • jtc1984jtc1984 Banned
    edited June 2009
    game started 3 hours ago and they are losing 5-1 in the ninth
  • jtc1984jtc1984 Banned
    edited June 2009
    nothing else at hollywood...the 5 is looking real good in the 5th
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited June 2009
    I didn't even realize the game had started already. Forgot it was getaway day.
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited June 2009
    jtc1984 wrote: »
    nothing else at hollywood...the 5 is looking real good in the 5th

    I also bet the 5 this race. Starts in about a minute. Best of luck to us both.

    Horse can win fresh and the race seems to setup for a horse from off the pace.
  • jtc1984jtc1984 Banned
    edited June 2009
    bad ride by talamo
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited July 2009
    Hollywood - Race 5

    #10 Cleisthenes (9/2 ml)

    European import for Sadler was absolutely hammered at the windows in his debut overseas, getting bet down to 1/2 and then winning off by 6 easy lengths. Looks to be a private purchase out of that race, and he must be in fine fettle right now as Sadler is practically running him right off the plane. And of course, Sadler is fantastic with new acquisitions, hitting 23% with well over a 50% profit from 92 such starters. Here are some notes from the Racing Post site concerning Cleisthenes' debut:

    Cleisthenes, who fetched �50,000 as a two-year-old, is an already gelded half-brother to a couple of winning milers. Well supported in the market beforehand, he wasn't best away but he soon raced very powerfully behind the leaders and once produced with his effort towards the outside of the field, forged right away. His rider had a bit of a job pulling him up after the line and, although this was a modest event, he can probably hold his own in better company.
    Looks like this one can run a little bit, and should offer a nice price here as well. Mike Smith gets the call, and he's hit at 21% for Sadler with a nice flat-bet profit from 95 mounts. Post-position not ideal, but he figures to drop back behind the speed as soon as they leave the gate anyway, so he should be able to save some ground. It also appears that there will be a nice, contested pace here which may set it up for his late run. Lots to like here.

    HRT record:

    59 for 201 (29%)

    $488.40 mutuels ($8.42 avg)

    Cleisthenes is entered back today, but is now listed as the 5/2 morning line favorite. He's also on the cover of today's Racing Form. Good grief.
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