Thursday play from DiscreetPicks.com
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Hollywood - Race 5
#10 Cleisthenes (9/2 ml)
European import for Sadler was absolutely hammered at the windows in his debut overseas, getting bet down to 1/2 and then winning off by 6 easy lengths. Looks to be a private purchase out of that race, and he must be in fine fettle right now as Sadler is practically running him right off the plane. And of course, Sadler is fantastic with new acquisitions, hitting 23% with well over a 50% profit from 92 such starters. Here are some notes from the Racing Post site concerning Cleisthenes' debut:
Cleisthenes, who fetched �50,000 as a two-year-old, is an already gelded half-brother to a couple of winning milers. Well supported in the market beforehand, he wasn't best away but he soon raced very powerfully behind the leaders and once produced with his effort towards the outside of the field, forged right away. His rider had a bit of a job pulling him up after the line and, although this was a modest event, he can probably hold his own in better company.
Looks like this one can run a little bit, and should offer a nice price here as well. Mike Smith gets the call, and he's hit at 21% for Sadler with a nice flat-bet profit from 95 mounts. Post-position not ideal, but he figures to drop back behind the speed as soon as they leave the gate anyway, so he should be able to save some ground. It also appears that there will be a nice, contested pace here which may set it up for his late run. Lots to like here.
HRT record:
59 for 201 (29%)
$488.40 mutuels ($8.42 avg)
#10 Cleisthenes (9/2 ml)
European import for Sadler was absolutely hammered at the windows in his debut overseas, getting bet down to 1/2 and then winning off by 6 easy lengths. Looks to be a private purchase out of that race, and he must be in fine fettle right now as Sadler is practically running him right off the plane. And of course, Sadler is fantastic with new acquisitions, hitting 23% with well over a 50% profit from 92 such starters. Here are some notes from the Racing Post site concerning Cleisthenes' debut:
Cleisthenes, who fetched �50,000 as a two-year-old, is an already gelded half-brother to a couple of winning milers. Well supported in the market beforehand, he wasn't best away but he soon raced very powerfully behind the leaders and once produced with his effort towards the outside of the field, forged right away. His rider had a bit of a job pulling him up after the line and, although this was a modest event, he can probably hold his own in better company.
Looks like this one can run a little bit, and should offer a nice price here as well. Mike Smith gets the call, and he's hit at 21% for Sadler with a nice flat-bet profit from 95 mounts. Post-position not ideal, but he figures to drop back behind the speed as soon as they leave the gate anyway, so he should be able to save some ground. It also appears that there will be a nice, contested pace here which may set it up for his late run. Lots to like here.
HRT record:
59 for 201 (29%)
$488.40 mutuels ($8.42 avg)
Comments
As Dodgers mentioned though, it's a moot point anyway as Cleisthenes has now been scratched. So here's another play instead:
Churchill - Race 7
#4 Red Rally (5/1 ml)
2yo owned-and-trained by Merrill Scherer was purchased for $90k (60 times the sire's stud fee) at the February Ocala sale after breezing a quarter in 20.4, two ticks off the sale's best of 20.2. More importantly however, Red Rally worked heads-up on May 27 with Flatter Than Me, a previous owned-and-trained by Scherer winner who goes as the 9/5 ml favorite in Race 3 today. Borel gets tabbed for the ride here, and this one definitely looks live. Worth noting btw that Scherer is showing an obscene flat-bet profit of over 300% from 32 first-time starters over the last 17 months.
No baseball today; i like the Brewers but i won't lay that kind of price.
I also bet the 5 this race. Starts in about a minute. Best of luck to us both.
Horse can win fresh and the race seems to setup for a horse from off the pace.
Cleisthenes is entered back today, but is now listed as the 5/2 morning line favorite. He's also on the cover of today's Racing Form. Good grief.