Betting M/L favs... bad idea?

ameyer0314

I've always heard that the favorite horse wins 33% of the time, which is fine and all, but sometimes the favorite isn't known until after the race goes off. So, does anyone know how often the morning line favorite wins the race?

The reason why I even care is because i'm trying to figure out if I can show a daily profit by simply betting the m/l favorite starting in race #1 to win a predetermined daily profit. If the horse loses in race #1, then I simply chase until I get a winner. I would need only one win daily for it to work.

This plan sounds logical if indeed the favorite wins at a rate of 33%, I can reasonably expect to get one winner per day, however, i'm not sure how much of a starting bank it would take to implement this plan. As i'm sure some days I will have to wait for several races before the win comes.

Any and all thoughts and suggestions are welcomed. Thanks.

Drew

DiscreetCat

I've heard the same thing about favorites winning 33%. No idea about the morning line fvaorite, good question, though i would guess they're pretty close, as the ml favorite does go favored in most instances. I feel confident in saying however that betting the favorite every time is a sure way to lose. You need to have value to win, and though the favorite does offer value sometimes, a lot of times they will not. And at times, they'll be severe underlays.

InTheFog

I think what your talking about is Progressional betting, bet 2 then 4 then 8 then 16 at even odds when you hit you will win $2 your starting bet if I was going to do that I would bet only Stakes races where you know the horses are well meant to win because of the money, you could win your first bet or you could put yourself in a hole you will never get out of, I've came to the conclusion there is no easy way you just have to take in everything you can learn and watch and look at other peoples opinions, but still anything can happen in a race.
Good Luck

FlyinLate

ameyer0314 wrote: »

The reason why I even care is because i'm trying to figure out if I can show a daily profit by simply betting the m/l favorite starting in race #1 to win a predetermined daily profit. If the horse loses in race #1, then I simply chase until I get a winner. I would need only one win daily for it to work.

Bad idea. The idea is simple, yes, but one bad losing streak can lead to a whole world of trouble. Say you start at 100. It would be only a matter of 4-5 races you could be having to wager a grand on an even money shot just to recoup losses (which 66% of the time may turn into another grand down and you chasing more).

studakota

There is NO automatic way to beat this game. Thar hellish tax should make us all run for the exits, but we don't. There is though a REASON why every horse wins that particular race. One tip, if you've got an exotic bet going and your "Friend" tells you that your horse can't win, don't change your original ticket and, if you must, buy another ticket on your friends horse. You will find That your first horse will win, and that my friends , is the only "guarantee" in horse racing. And remember There are ten thousand ways to lose a race, there really are. Another tip, many times you'll see horse A who beat horse B by 1/1/2 lengths and B had trouble. But in todays race A is 6/5 and B is 6-1, you'd better, at least cover B and don't forget a cheap ex. And don't leave vouchers in the machine, ever..