5 Saturday Stakes Plays
FlyinLate
Senior Member
Here will be my plays for today's stakes races.
Churchill
Race 8
#1 Omniscient (9/2)
I had a large wager on Omniscient in his last. The AW was simply not to his liking. He looked ready to run em all down turning for home and was just spinning his wheels. Gets back to dirt here and with Warrior's Reward in the race we should get around 4-1.
Race 10
#3 Einstein (2/1)
Einstein has done nothing wrong. The horse gets over any surface with ease. Last on dirt he had the outside post which at 1 1/8 at GP is deadly. Still ran a descent third to the great Albertus Maximus. Comes back to the dirt today, better post, and what I would consider a weaker field with the exception of Asiatic Boy. AB should take some money and allow us to get 8/5 or so on this one.
Race 11
#1 Excelente (5/1)
I was live at Arlington to watch this horse run in the American Guiness. He looked outstanding coming home in the stretch at a nice price. He's improving off the layoff and is getting settled in NA. Should really appreciate the extra ground. While I'm not a fan of the rail, it should allow him to save some ground and make one late run.
Belmont Park
Race 4
#3 Seattle Smooth (5/2)
Outstanding filly has the chance to beat the STRONG entry. Seattle Smooth has beaten many of the same contenders that music note has, namely Proud Spell. Seattle Smooth is now third off the layoff and should be ready her year's best. I'm just worried that due to the various running styles of the entry, they will have the best chance no matter how the pace goes. Worth a small win play over the entry who is likely to be 1-5.
Hollywood Park
Race 9
#3 Rail Trip (5/2)
Toss last. Ball Four was full of P&V that day. Rail Trip sits just off the pace and pounces past em all in the stretch.
Betting them all to win and using them in exactas.
Churchill
Race 8
#1 Omniscient (9/2)
I had a large wager on Omniscient in his last. The AW was simply not to his liking. He looked ready to run em all down turning for home and was just spinning his wheels. Gets back to dirt here and with Warrior's Reward in the race we should get around 4-1.
Race 10
#3 Einstein (2/1)
Einstein has done nothing wrong. The horse gets over any surface with ease. Last on dirt he had the outside post which at 1 1/8 at GP is deadly. Still ran a descent third to the great Albertus Maximus. Comes back to the dirt today, better post, and what I would consider a weaker field with the exception of Asiatic Boy. AB should take some money and allow us to get 8/5 or so on this one.
Race 11
#1 Excelente (5/1)
I was live at Arlington to watch this horse run in the American Guiness. He looked outstanding coming home in the stretch at a nice price. He's improving off the layoff and is getting settled in NA. Should really appreciate the extra ground. While I'm not a fan of the rail, it should allow him to save some ground and make one late run.
Belmont Park
Race 4
#3 Seattle Smooth (5/2)
Outstanding filly has the chance to beat the STRONG entry. Seattle Smooth has beaten many of the same contenders that music note has, namely Proud Spell. Seattle Smooth is now third off the layoff and should be ready her year's best. I'm just worried that due to the various running styles of the entry, they will have the best chance no matter how the pace goes. Worth a small win play over the entry who is likely to be 1-5.
Hollywood Park
Race 9
#3 Rail Trip (5/2)
Toss last. Ball Four was full of P&V that day. Rail Trip sits just off the pace and pounces past em all in the stretch.
Betting them all to win and using them in exactas.
Comments
Excelente scratched out of the 11th.
Going to go with another horse out of the same last race. #10 Pyratania
Entry goes off at 1-5 as expected. Seattle Smooth sits just off the pace duel and makes a prolonged drive in the stretch to win by a length as the 2-1 second choice.
$6.20 for the win. $28 P3 w/ the 2 favorites in previous two races.
good call i saw the race an againg intense @the wire, great read an call on seattle smooth
i didnt cash , lost the tri 1,3,5
Ellis was on record as saying Rail Trip would be on the lead today. And Valdivia certainly gunned him out there, but Ball Four rushed up to engage him from the outside, attempting to force a speed duel. Valdivia then eased Rail Trip back along the rail and came up on Ball Four's outside. Some real gamesmanship going on there. Rail Trip put Ball Four away in the stretch this time, but Informed came rolling up late to take advantage of the early pace battle. Huge run by him, especially @ 14/1. Rail Trip just hung on for second over the other closer Dakota Phone.
Have to think that Rail Trip will go on to the Hollywood Gold Cup, though the stretchout thing hasn't gone quite as well as Ellis and company would have liked. He's still running very well, but he hasn't shown the same explosiveness that he had sprinting. I think he can be a definite factor in high-level route races, but his chances will probably hinge on the pace scenario. Races with a lot of early speed (like this one) will be tough on him. Races without much speed, he can probably win. I was encouraged by the fact that he looked pretty tractable today (something he had sprinting, but not in routes). If he can improve upon that ability, he'll improve overall. Little doubt about that.