value
timmy
Junior Member
does anyone have an opinion on what is a better value for the money,between a pk3 and a trifecta. i know the odds determine that ,but in general which is better?
Comments
In your trifectas:
1)Keying 2 non-favored horses in top three spots in the tri will often produce better value than exactas and you won't have to be as perfect
2) If you like the favorite in a race, and don't like the 2nd and 3rd choices, throw them out and key the fav over the rest of the field in the tri. This will almost always bring better value than betting win on off odds of fav. Public keys 2nd and 3rd choice below as much as they key fav on top
In your pick 3's:
If you know your horse is going to be bet below the ML, closing out a pick 3 will almost always bring more value than betting win on the off odds of your horse.
Also, almost never a good idea to start a horizontal wager w/ an odds on horse. The following horizontal wager starting in the next race will almost always have more value. For example- don't start a pick 4 w/ a 3/5 horse as the last 3 legs of the pick 3 contained in the sequence contains more value. Same as starting a pick 3 w/ an odds on horse, the double contained w/in the ticket will almost always contain more value.
Good points.
Value can be argued on both ends. To me, everything revolves around my solid plays. Say I love a 4/1 shot, but am clueless to the rest of the field, I'd single him in a P3. If I also have a strong opinion on other runners in the race, I'm more likely to key him in exotics.
I hit 10 pick 3's for every Tri I hit so I believe in Pick 3's
Sunday was a perfect example... I had 4 races picked out and knew they would be chalky. The first race I put 200 bucks down at 9 to 5 and won by 5 lengths. An hour later came my second race and put it all down on a 6 to 5 that won with ease. My last 2 races went off at even money and I put 500 on each of them to win and won both by 2 lengths. I left with a very nice profit and never trailed in any of the races. Did I get huge VALUE ?
I watch those guys who bet 20 to 1 shots all day long and they are broke. I eat a lot of chalk and do so willing because some days that is all there is. That is why playing Pick 3's offers you some value for your money.
And yes.... a 4 to 5 that you keep cashing has more VALUE then the 20 to 1 you keep throwing away.
2W2P2S beat me to the punch here. This statement is so wrong it's not even debatable. Even if you ARE betting all 1/5 shots, you're still not going to cash every ticket. No one can win all their plays, regardless of how much (or how little) value they're getting. So of course, in many cases, you're going to be getting good value but still lose. It's pretty much unavoidable (unless you never get any value at all).
Compare it to poker. I'm sure you've all seen on tv where someone will go all-in with pockets aces before the flop, and then lose. Obviously, anyone holding aces before the flop is getting their money in with the best of it. You can't argue that they were only getting value on the hands that they won.
For many many years I have had ALL the experts including JIMMY THE GREEK who tried to tell me how to bet on horses and let me tell you my results speak for themselves. I don't play the same way all the time and I have tried just about every combination including 500 dollar show roll. I do it at Aqueduct all the time. You simply pick the horse you think will win to show and see if you can make it the whole way through all 9 races. Do you get rich ? Nope but its a lot of fun and you would be surprised how much money you end up with at the end.
Look I have my bad days like everyone else but by changing things up you have more fun and that is what makes racing so much fun for me is that no matter what I have fun. I don't go to the races to "make money" I go to have fun and if I happen to "win money" well that is a bonus indeed.
Remember if I hit my first two races at 8 to 5 I have to lose 3 times in a row before I lose any money. My advice is to follow several tracks and get to know trainers and jockey's. You can make good money betting on a few Dominguez sure things at Belmont if you know what you are doing. Betting him in a few key races along with Borel at Churchill can make you very good money.