Bashford Manor play from Discreet Picks

DiscreetCat

Churchill - Race 10

#4 Mission Impazible (7/2 ml)

I gave this horse out in his debut, where he showed uncommon late kick for a 2yo in powering home through the final sixteenth to get up at the wire over the return winner Grand Times (who was over 4 lengths clear of the rest of the field). Was well-supported in the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes next time out, but was really up against it from a pace standpoint when facing the lightning-quick Ward 2yo Jealous Again (who returned at Royal Ascot, of all places, to win a Group One stakes by open lengths). In that race, Mission Impazible broke slowly and was way behind early before angling to the rail for the stretch run and then swerving through the field late as he gained considerable momentum in the late stages, reminiscent of his debut win. Seems to be taking the same route here as Ready's Image, Pletcher's star 2yo from a couple of years ago who won his debut at Keeneland before running third in the Kentucky Juvenile. Ready's Image came out of that race (as Mission Impazible is here) to win a Belmont stakes by 7 lengths, then went on to win the Sanford Stakes at Saratoga. Regarding Mission Impazible, the extra furlong here should do wonders for his chances, and although there's some speed in here, there's nobody nearly as quick as Jealous Again. Should be a bit closer early with a clean break, and a repeat of either of his first two races is probably good enough to win this. Improvement along the same lines as Ready's Image (a definite possibility) could make him a romping winner here. Will definitely take some action here because of Pletcher and the fact that he's the only horse in the race with prior stakes experience, but that should be somewhat counter-acted by the fact that his last-race Beyer is 13 points lower than that of the 3/1 morning line favorite Backtalk.


HRT record:

59 for 204 (29%)

$488.40 mutuels ($8.42 avg)

husker70

Discreet--you don't give soundman a shot in here??

DiscreetCat

As you probably know, i picked Soundman here when he broke his maiden, but in this particular race i think he may be a little bit overmatched. I'm not crazy about the fact that both of his previous riders (Mena and Leparoux) are on different horses here, one of them for the same connections in fact. Definite condender if he can run back to the maiden-breaker, and there's a legit chance that he simply didn't like the mud last time out, but based on the sub-par effort last time and the jockeys jumping ship (Mena doing so off the big maiden win, no less), he appears to be moving in the wrong direction right now.

InTheFog

I'll take a shot with -Flatter Than Me-- trouble in last has speed dropping some weight and has Albarado, also like outside post, keep out of trouble and see what's happening with the other speedballs on his inside.

hotbustop

Backtalk for me in this one. I think he comes flying late and takes advantage of some serious front running speedsters.

FlyinLate

DiscreetCat wrote: »

Churchill - Race 10

#4 Mission Impazible (7/2 ml)

I gave this horse out in his debut, where he showed uncommon late kick for a 2yo in powering home through the final sixteenth to get up at the wire over the return winner Grand Times (who was over 4 lengths clear of the rest of the field). Was well-supported in the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes next time out, but was really up against it from a pace standpoint when facing the lightning-quick Ward 2yo Jealous Again (who returned at Royal Ascot, of all places, to win a Group One stakes by open lengths). In that race, Mission Impazible broke slowly and was way behind early before angling to the rail for the stretch run and then swerving through the field late as he gained considerable momentum in the late stages, reminiscent of his debut win. Seems to be taking the same route here as Ready's Image, Pletcher's star 2yo from a couple of years ago who won his debut at Keeneland before running third in the Kentucky Juvenile. Ready's Image came out of that race (as Mission Impazible is here) to win a Belmont stakes by 7 lengths, then went on to win the Sanford Stakes at Saratoga. Regarding Mission Impazible, the extra furlong here should do wonders for his chances, and although there's some speed in here, there's nobody nearly as quick as Jealous Again. Should be a bit closer early with a clean break, and a repeat of either of his first two races is probably good enough to win this. Improvement along the same lines as Ready's Image (a definite possibility) could make him a romping winner here. Will definitely take some action here because of Pletcher and the fact that he's the only horse in the race with prior stakes experience, but that should be somewhat counter-acted by the fact that his last-race Beyer is 13 points lower than that of the 3/1 morning line favorite Backtalk.


HRT record:

59 for 204 (29%)

$488.40 mutuels ($8.42 avg)

Scratched

Danip

Ah! Man i wish i did bet, i actually guessed the top three except had the second and third place horses switched. On the plus SJ seems to have a good one this year.

DiscreetCat

Mission Impazible finally returns in Race 2 at Gulfstream on Saturday after getting scratched out of the Bashford Manor. I've seen him on some Derby lists, which seems quite a stretch right now, but it'll be very interesting to see what he does tomorrow. Could potentially jump into the Derby picture with a good performance, though the race is only 6 furlongs and it seems rather likely that he's prepping for some kind of two-turn stakes try.