Hollywood Park R1

FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
edited November 2009 in Horse Racing Forum
#3 Magic Texan
Too fast for this bunch.
Should go wire to wire.
Only negative I see is the extra furlong.

I'm stuck at home writing a memorandum all night so I'll be posting a play before every race until I finish it and can enjoy the last few races w/ a scotch instead of a law paper :clap2:

Comments

  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited November 2009
    I agree, he's clearly going to pop the gate and assume control of the race early. He seems to lose his punch late however (on a pretty consistent basis), and as you mentioned he hasn't been great at tonight's distance. He does seem to perform better on grass though, and this is his first try over the course, so who knows. Race may hinge on how much pressure To The Penny can apply early.
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited November 2009
    DiscreetCat wrote: »
    I agree, he's clearly going to pop the gate and assume control of the race early. He seems to lose his punch late however (on a pretty consistent basis), and as you mentioned he hasn't been great at tonight's distance. He does seem to perform better on grass though, and this is his first try over the course, so who knows. Race may hinge on how much pressure To The Penny can apply early.

    My hope and analysis is that To The Penny will stalk about 3/4 to a full length behind. Going over his PP's it seems he does his best running sitting JUST off the pace. It seems when he presses too hard or takes the lead he fades, I'm hoping Periban is instructing to stay just off him and get first run (just hoping that run isn't sufficient to overtake him).

    I know you said you went over card and didn't have any plays to give out so would you feel like giving out who your pick might have been in some races (without being unfair to any paying customers of course)?
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited November 2009
    I think To The Penny will be more than a length off the early pace. He's just not quick enough to keep up here. I still think Magic Texan may burn himself out, but i could definitely be wrong.

    Hard to say who my picks "would have been" when i don't really like anybody. Horses i was looking at include Magic Texan, Stevie's Afleet in the 3rd, Fiery Red in the 5th, and Shadow of Illinois in the 7th. I'm not real confident in any of them though, and note that they're all reasonably short prices. That's why i'm passing the card.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited November 2009
    I am intrigued by the lack of speed in Race 6, but i'm had trouble identifying anyone who could take advantage of it. Perhaps Orientation Hall?
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited November 2009
    DiscreetCat wrote: »
    I am intrigued by the lack of speed in Race 6, but i'm had trouble identifying anyone who could take advantage of it. Perhaps Orientation Hall?

    I had difficulty with that one myself. Orientation Hall might get it but there is also
    #10 Deadshot Keen
    Stalked pace in CLM32k and won't be up against much. Never been in a class even close as low as this so I find it likely he'll be on or near the front. Not to mention the turnback in distance. Might have been using that to get a leg up for going the 6f.
    #1 Smoke Cat
    Granted he's going up in class but he does his best running on the front. He's not that quick (when he did get front fractions were slow, may have just walked into it i similar paceless races). Second time for Miyadi and went right t front last time for him. Chance he's going to hit front and hope for best.

    As for later races, Shadow of Illinois is one I fully agree with. Seasoned veteran sure can run.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited November 2009
    Nice call on Magic Texan. He got away with some incredibly soft early fractions.
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited November 2009
    Thanks.

    Race 2
    #1
    I find it hard to get away. The scary race is when they drop. He already dropped into this class and nearly won it.
    Not worth a win price.

    Playing in exactas w/ #2 and #5 keybox
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited November 2009
    FlyinLate wrote: »
    Thanks.

    Race 2
    #1
    I find it hard to get away. The scary race is when they drop. He already dropped into this class and nearly won it.
    Not worth a win price.

    Playing in exactas w/ #2 and #5 keybox

    1-5 Exacta
    Worth some penny change in profit considering I used the #2 n exactas as well.
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited November 2009
    Race 3
    #4 First Queen
    Improved when returning to AW and dropping to MC level.
    Should be worth a shot @ a nice price with the outside 3 taking most of the money.
    Taking a price stab here.
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited November 2009
    Race 4
    #9 Aunt Grace
    Looks like the one to beat here.

    Exacta keybox with #2, 4, 5.
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited November 2009
    FlyinLate wrote: »
    Race 4
    #9 Aunt Grace
    Looks like the one to beat here.

    Exacta keybox with #2, 4, 5.

    Some odd bumping turning for home between 4,5,9. All of them finished off the board.
    #2 rallied for second.

    Race 5
    #3 Caramel Coffee
    Might get the lead here with a short field. Second off layoff.
    Win on #3
    Keybox w/ 1 + 2.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited November 2009
    Fiery Red was motoring late, but gave away tons of ground early and was left with too much to do. Not sure what the deal was there....it's not like the pace was fast.
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited November 2009
    DiscreetCat wrote: »
    Fiery Red was motoring late, but gave away tons of ground early and was left with too much to do. Not sure what the deal was there....it's not like the pace was fast.

    Yea I'm a bit confused myself. He was WAY back there only to come home absolutely flying late. No chance to get winners because he was 15 lengths behnd when he was shaken up.
    I'll be adding him to my barn.

    About even right now after 5 races. Finished my paper so time for a drink and the last 3 races. Here are my plays. Hopefully I'll come out on top. DC, you were right about an awful opening nght card. Looks comparable to Golden Gate's card this afternoon.

    R6 - #10 Deadshot Keen
    Win and Place
    R7 - #9 Shadow of Illinois
    Win Only
    Exacta Box 5/7/9
    R8 - #8 Father Grumpy
    Win and Place
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited November 2009
    I'm guessing Saturday's card is better. Just about to start working on it now...
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited November 2009
    DiscreetCat wrote: »
    I'm guessing Saturday's card is better. Just about to start working on it now...

    Cards all over look pretty sad tomorrow for a Saturday of racing. I guess its because of last weekends festivities.

    Do you ever play FL tracks? Calder looks to have a nice state bred stakes card tomorrow.
    I might take a chance over there tomorrow afternoon, however I really don't follow the Florida circuit. I dont play much outside of Southern CA circuit and Midwest Circuit (KY and IL).
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited November 2009
    FlyinLate wrote: »
    R7 - #9 Shadow of Illinois
    Win Only
    Exacta Box 5/7/9

    Shadow of Illinois wins.
    Missed the exacta.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited November 2009
    Nice. I guess i should've played tonight after all. The horses i was "looking at" went 3-for-4, lol.
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited November 2009
    FlyinLate wrote: »
    R8 - #8 Father Grumpy
    Win and Place

    Winner.
    11.20 to win
    8.00 to place
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited November 2009
    Usually just on Summit of Speed day. I do follow Gulfstream though, obviously.
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