Kentucky Derby thread
DiscreetCat
Moderator
I thought it would be a good idea to have a thread where we can list our Kentucky Derby contenders. Whether it's horses we already know, new prospects who may be under-the-radar (of which there obviously will be many), video replays from YouTube, or whatever. Post all your Derby prospects here!
To begin, i'd like to thank FBWinners for being first on-board with Winslow Homer. Without his post here on HorseRacingTalk, that Philadelphia Park race would've gone completely undetected by me. All three Vegas books that are offering Derby futures are currently listing him @ 75/1.
One horse that really caught my eye this weekend was Tiz Chrome in the Stuka Stakes @ Hollywood. Good-looking son of Tiznow was striding away strongly from a pretty solid bunch of sprinters to finish in very fast time, and he showed a new dimension by stalking the early pace, as opposed to his maiden win where he went wire-to-wire (not really the style you're looking for in a Derby prospect). On the down side, the distance of the Stuka was only 6.5 furlongs, and the two-turn question must still be answered. But trainer Baffert is obviously skilled at preparing a horse for the Derby, and it's worth noting that sire Tiznow won the BC Classic (at the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles) over the Churchill surface. And Tiz Chrome himself broke his maiden @ Churchill. So there are definitely some things to like there. Reportedly he'll be pointed to the San Vicente Stakes, a 7-furlong graded stakes which i believe is run in early February. That would put his two-turn debut around March, which seems kinda late if you ask me, but like i said Baffert definitely knows what he is doing. And it's worth mentioning he started off Silver Charm's successful Derby campaign in the San Vicente as well. He also mentioned in the post-race comments that he's interested in accumulating some graded earnings for the horse, which obviously the San Vicente could accomplish. Don't forget, you've got to be in the Derby before you can win the Derby. Hopefully the Gulfstream-bound Winslow Homer can pick up some graded earnings in the Holy Bull Stakes, where FB says he's being pointed.
To begin, i'd like to thank FBWinners for being first on-board with Winslow Homer. Without his post here on HorseRacingTalk, that Philadelphia Park race would've gone completely undetected by me. All three Vegas books that are offering Derby futures are currently listing him @ 75/1.
One horse that really caught my eye this weekend was Tiz Chrome in the Stuka Stakes @ Hollywood. Good-looking son of Tiznow was striding away strongly from a pretty solid bunch of sprinters to finish in very fast time, and he showed a new dimension by stalking the early pace, as opposed to his maiden win where he went wire-to-wire (not really the style you're looking for in a Derby prospect). On the down side, the distance of the Stuka was only 6.5 furlongs, and the two-turn question must still be answered. But trainer Baffert is obviously skilled at preparing a horse for the Derby, and it's worth noting that sire Tiznow won the BC Classic (at the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles) over the Churchill surface. And Tiz Chrome himself broke his maiden @ Churchill. So there are definitely some things to like there. Reportedly he'll be pointed to the San Vicente Stakes, a 7-furlong graded stakes which i believe is run in early February. That would put his two-turn debut around March, which seems kinda late if you ask me, but like i said Baffert definitely knows what he is doing. And it's worth mentioning he started off Silver Charm's successful Derby campaign in the San Vicente as well. He also mentioned in the post-race comments that he's interested in accumulating some graded earnings for the horse, which obviously the San Vicente could accomplish. Don't forget, you've got to be in the Derby before you can win the Derby. Hopefully the Gulfstream-bound Winslow Homer can pick up some graded earnings in the Holy Bull Stakes, where FB says he's being pointed.
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Also let's not forget Pletchers trio in Rule, Super Saver and Aikenite on the trail this coming year.
Also hearing very positive things on a West coast horse that is way under the radar in Uh Oh Bango.
Was also told that Noble's Promise will winter at Oaklawn and take that route by the way of the Soutwest, Rebel, and Ark Derby. I heard this from the FG this weekend.
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Check out this update from the Fox Hill Farm website:
The real good news is Winslow Homer is blossoming at Palm Meadows. He is training better than ever and he is pointed to the Holy Bull Stake on January 23rd
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he will be back on dirt in next race and will probably have the services of Johnny V. His workouts in Florida are strong and steady, and he should relish the added distance. Moreover, he should be a square price.
Afleet Express (11/5 @ AQU, Race 2)
2yo colt by Afleet Alex was completely shut off at the start and checked hard, dropping way back towards the rear early. Remained out of the camera view all the way down the backside, but came circling wide into the lane and ran right past the entire field down the stretch run, even being taken in hand late. Looks like an up-and-comer, for sure.
Take Control fell back to last early before eventually angling to the inside in an apparent attempt to save ground turning for home, and looked to be spinning his wheels as he was being pushed on pretty good by the rider (Martin Garcia), then came into the lane running almost completely sideways. I have never seen a horse running that sideways before, not ever. Straightened out after that but then did kind of a half-sideways thing when shifting out for room in midstretch (while still apparently well-beaten), but then suddenly took off like a rocketship and ran right past the leader (who appeared to have the race in the bag) to win going away. Looks like a stone-cold distance type who should only improve with racing, and goodness knows he's bred to the hilt. Sky's the limit with this one, keep your eye on him...
Nashua S. (G2) and Remsen S. (G2) hero BUDDY'S SAINT (Saint Liam) took the initial steps of his three-year-old season at Gulfstream Park on Friday morning, breezing a half-mile in :50 3/5.
"We just wanted to give him a chance to stretch his legs," trainer Bruce Levine said. "He had about a week of galloping when we got him here from up north, and he'll be on a steady work schedule from here on out."
Levine has targeted the $250,000 Fountain of Youth S. (G2) on February 20 as the first seasonal test for Buddy's Saint.
"We'll point him towards the Fountain of Youth; that's the immediate goal," Levine said. "The Holy Bull ([G3] on January 23) comes up a bit too soon, and if I was going to make that race with him I would have needed to bring him back earlier than I wanted to, and he wouldn't have had all that much down time since his last start.
"Plus it gives him a little more time to develop," Levine added. "And I'll have had some more time to get him ready. It's also a two-turn race, and I'd much rather bring him back at that distance than to go a one-turn mile where the pace is usually much quicker. You can catch some sprinters stretching out, and if he were to draw inside you're almost forced to run him hard early."
A winner in two of his three starts, Buddy's Saint had trained well leading up to his debut last September, giving Levine confidence that the colt was "more than all right." And despite being disqualified from a victory in his career debut, Levine opted to start the colt in the Nashua for his second lifetime outing.
"He was training like a stakes horse leading up to the Nashua, and even though there was a maiden race at a mile on the same day, I thought we should give the race a try," Levine explained. "But I never expected him to win as easily as he did."
Buddy's Saint captured the Nashua by 12 lengths, and following that victory Levine targeted the Remsen. The bay colt posted a 4 3/4-length win in that 1 1/8-mile Aqueduct test.
"In my mind, stretching him out was only going to help, and the Remsen was definitely a goal we targeted," the conditioner said. "It was two turns, and I really wanted to try him at two turns before heading south. He responded that day like I thought he would, and to this point, everything has gone well."
By Mike Welsch
Buddy's Saint and Homeboykris, two of the top 3-year-old prospects on the grounds at Gulfstream Park, worked on a very cold and windy morning here Wednesday.
Buddy's Saint went an easy half-mile in 49.71 seconds according to Daily Racing Form shortly before 8 a.m, cruising along through fractions of of 25.11 and 37.51 seconds while never asked to extend himself. He galloped out five-eighths in 1:02.83. The work was his second since his arrival in south Florida last month.
"He's not a really fast breezer unless you put him in company," trainer Bruce Levine said later that morning. "Then he'll get aggressive and go faster. At the moment, time doesn't matter that much when it comes to his works."
Levine said he would work Buddy's Saint every five days for the time being, then switch to a six-day schedule once he gets closer to his first goal this winter, the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth on Feb. 20.
"He doesn't have to go very fast right now because we still have a ways to go before his race," said Levine. "When we start picking up the pace in the morning, then I'll space his works a little further apart.
Homeboykris worked shortly after the renovation break, going six furlongs in 1:14.69 and completing his final quarter in 24.29 seconds under mild encouragement before galloping out seven-eighths in 1:28.24. Homeboykris, winner of the Grade 1 Champagne in his 2-year-old finale, has a much earlier target on his schedule than Buddy's Saint - the Grade 3 Holy Bull at a mile on Jan. 23.
"We got just what we wanted this morning," trainer Rick Dutrow said. "We're right on target for the Holy Bull, although he's still got one more work to go, and like this one, it will be a major test, too. At the moment, we're in good shape, babe."
Dutrow is also high on Winslow Homer, who will launch his 3-year-old campaign in the Grade 3 Holy Bull later this month. A son of Unbridled's Song, Winslow Homer won two of three starts at 2, including an entry-level allowance race by more than a dozen lengths at Philadelphia Park to close out the campaign on Nov. 20.
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Gulfstream - Race 7
#5 Colizeo (5/2 ml)
Lots to like here. As far as his race record goes, Colizeo is coming off a nose loss going two turns @ Churchill, and the horse that finished behind him in third that day (Stay Put) has not only returned to win his next start, but also returned to win vs. allowance company @ Fair Grounds. That's nice enough, but what really intrigues me about Colizeo is his recent worktab. In his last three drills, he's worked heads up with Three Day Rush, Bad Action, and Aikenite. THree Day Rush came out of that drill to win an allowance race @ Gulfstream on Jan 9, while Bad Action is the winner of the Grade 3 Pegasus Handicap @ Meadowlands, and is currently being pointed at the Sunshine Millions Turf. Aikenite as you know ran a big second in the Breeders Futurity @ Keeneland, and is the possible favorite for Saturday's Holy Bull Stakes. So suffice to say, Colizeo has been keeping some very nice company, particularly compared to the maiden field he'll be facing today. Price is a bit of a concern here, but i do expect this horse to run very well today.
Tiz Chrome is returning earlier than expected, as Baffert has apparently changed his mind and will now stretch him out to two turns in Saturday's Bob Lewis Stakes. Looking forward to this one, for sure. Baffert has also entered Macias, who defeated the return winner Alfarabi when making his two-turn debut on grass. The race will also feature the return of Dave in Dixie, who hasn't been seen since the Norfolk last year.
Tiz Chrome IMO is the one to beat here, but Coriticado (sp?) is one that I've had my eye on recently. One of those horses that just seem to handle whatever is thrown his way. If Tiz Chrome does yield a fair 8-5/9-5 I'd likely take it. I also may be playing Tiz Chrome/Cort on top over a few.
Colizeo is entered in a Gulfstream allowance today.
Trappe Shot Weanling Tops Keeneland November | BloodHorse.com
HRT favorite trappe shot is going to get off to a fast start when his babies start hitting the track