John Asher lists his Top 10 Derby prospects
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from The Voice-Tribune:
As Fridays celebration of the new year looms, it provides an opportunity for new beginnings and fresh hope. It also offers a significant milepost for Thoroughbred horses and a time for both gut and reality checks for their owners.
New Years Day is, for purposes of competition, the universal birthday for all Thoroughbreds most notable for most of us because it is the day that 2-year-olds become 3-year-olds, the age for horses that will compete in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands and the Triple Crown and the Kentucky Oaks.
Early Derby
And the Derby will never be closer than on this universal birthday than in 2010, when Kentucky Derby 136 will be run as early as possible as the first Saturday in May falls on the first day of that month.
On New Years Day, exactly 120 days will remain before the Run for the Roses, a time frame that makes it a day for those reality and gut checks for the owners and trainers of horses that are being pointed toward Churchill Downs and the biggest race of them all.
With that in mind, plus the knowledge that I am tired of arguing why Rachel Alexandra is a clear choice over Zenyatta for 2009s Horse of the Year honor, heres an early peek at my top 10 roster of contenders for Kentucky Derby 136.
Early peek
But my top selection for the 2010 is accompanied by a large asterisk. It is there for the same reason that I view the Breeders Cup Classic win by Zenyatta as impressive and perhaps racings Moment of the Year, but ultimately a drawback when it comes to HOY consideration. So here we go:
1. LOOKIN AT LUCKY This good looking son of Smart Strike is the only choice for 2-year-old champion and only a miserable post and an unlucky trip cost him both a win in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and a perfect season. He could give the good-time team of owner Mike Pegram and Bob Baffert another Derby win after teaming to win the 1998 running with Real Quiet.
He followed his Breeders Cup loss with a dominant victory in Hollywood Parks CashCall Futurity but, despite his near-perfection, he carries a HUGE asterisk because: he has raced exclusively on synthetic surfaces. So he has an impressive resume, but that record is significantly diminished in terms of Derby consideration because the track at Churchill Downs is actual dirt.
No grass for Derby
If Churchill Downs should change the Derby to a grass race between now and May 1, hes an easy choice. But that wont happen, so Baffert had better get him on dirt as soon as possible to see what he really has in his hands.
My guess for Lookin at Luckys dirt debut: the $800,000 Sunland Park Derby, the once obscure race that gave us 2009 Derby winner Mine That Bird. It is now a Grade III race and its purse money counts toward Kentucky Derby eligibility, and its the belief in this corner that the dirt surface and big money will make this race a more important prep in 2010 than the tradition-rich Santa Anita Derby, which is run over a synthetic Pro-Ride surface.
2. WALKING THE BEACH He has only one career start under his belt, but this son of Medaglia dOro (the sire of Rachel Alexandra) was the most impressive 2-year-old winner of the Churchill Downs Fall Meet in his lone start. Trainer Bret Calhoun, a Kentucky Derby rookie, is a good horseman who will have to find a way to get him to Churchill ready to run the race of his life May 1.
3. SUPER SAVER A most impressive winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs, he is proven on dirt and, most importantly, the dirt course beneath the Twin Spires. Could be the best chance for a Derby win for trainer Todd Pletcher, who has the most starts in Derby history without a win.
4. LOST APTITUDE This Dale Romans trainee has been impressive on grass, but his pedigree indicates he should do just fine on dirt. I like grass in the pedigree of Derby horses, which kept Lookin at Lucky atop this list.
5. BUDDYS SAINT The king of New York-based Derby prospects after winning the Remson in late November. He scored his first career win in the Nashua Stakes; a feat not to be ignored, and ill-fated sire Saint Liam won both the Stephen Foster and Clark Handicaps at Churchill Downs.
6. WORLDLY Ran a better-than-it-looked third in the Kentucky Jockey Club and is preparing for the Derby at New Orleans Fair Grounds for Louisville-born trainer Paul McGee.
7. FLY DOWN Nick Zito-trained colt was an impressive maiden winner at two turns at Churchill Downs. Not a bad thing to have on the resumè heading in the winter in Florida.
8. RULE Nice-looking by hot first-crop sire Roman Ruler won the Delta Jackpot.
9. NOBLES PROMISE This Ken McPeek-trained runner enjoyed a strong fall and chased Lookin at Lucky in the CashCall Futurity. But cant see his sprinters pedigree going 1 1/4-miles on Derby Day.
10. JACKSON BEND Impressive in major 2-year-old races at Floridas Calder, but has the same pedigree problems as No. 9. But he is trained by Zito, and few are better at getting 3-year-olds to run long.
As Fridays celebration of the new year looms, it provides an opportunity for new beginnings and fresh hope. It also offers a significant milepost for Thoroughbred horses and a time for both gut and reality checks for their owners.
New Years Day is, for purposes of competition, the universal birthday for all Thoroughbreds most notable for most of us because it is the day that 2-year-olds become 3-year-olds, the age for horses that will compete in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands and the Triple Crown and the Kentucky Oaks.
Early Derby
And the Derby will never be closer than on this universal birthday than in 2010, when Kentucky Derby 136 will be run as early as possible as the first Saturday in May falls on the first day of that month.
On New Years Day, exactly 120 days will remain before the Run for the Roses, a time frame that makes it a day for those reality and gut checks for the owners and trainers of horses that are being pointed toward Churchill Downs and the biggest race of them all.
With that in mind, plus the knowledge that I am tired of arguing why Rachel Alexandra is a clear choice over Zenyatta for 2009s Horse of the Year honor, heres an early peek at my top 10 roster of contenders for Kentucky Derby 136.
Early peek
But my top selection for the 2010 is accompanied by a large asterisk. It is there for the same reason that I view the Breeders Cup Classic win by Zenyatta as impressive and perhaps racings Moment of the Year, but ultimately a drawback when it comes to HOY consideration. So here we go:
1. LOOKIN AT LUCKY This good looking son of Smart Strike is the only choice for 2-year-old champion and only a miserable post and an unlucky trip cost him both a win in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and a perfect season. He could give the good-time team of owner Mike Pegram and Bob Baffert another Derby win after teaming to win the 1998 running with Real Quiet.
He followed his Breeders Cup loss with a dominant victory in Hollywood Parks CashCall Futurity but, despite his near-perfection, he carries a HUGE asterisk because: he has raced exclusively on synthetic surfaces. So he has an impressive resume, but that record is significantly diminished in terms of Derby consideration because the track at Churchill Downs is actual dirt.
No grass for Derby
If Churchill Downs should change the Derby to a grass race between now and May 1, hes an easy choice. But that wont happen, so Baffert had better get him on dirt as soon as possible to see what he really has in his hands.
My guess for Lookin at Luckys dirt debut: the $800,000 Sunland Park Derby, the once obscure race that gave us 2009 Derby winner Mine That Bird. It is now a Grade III race and its purse money counts toward Kentucky Derby eligibility, and its the belief in this corner that the dirt surface and big money will make this race a more important prep in 2010 than the tradition-rich Santa Anita Derby, which is run over a synthetic Pro-Ride surface.
2. WALKING THE BEACH He has only one career start under his belt, but this son of Medaglia dOro (the sire of Rachel Alexandra) was the most impressive 2-year-old winner of the Churchill Downs Fall Meet in his lone start. Trainer Bret Calhoun, a Kentucky Derby rookie, is a good horseman who will have to find a way to get him to Churchill ready to run the race of his life May 1.
3. SUPER SAVER A most impressive winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs, he is proven on dirt and, most importantly, the dirt course beneath the Twin Spires. Could be the best chance for a Derby win for trainer Todd Pletcher, who has the most starts in Derby history without a win.
4. LOST APTITUDE This Dale Romans trainee has been impressive on grass, but his pedigree indicates he should do just fine on dirt. I like grass in the pedigree of Derby horses, which kept Lookin at Lucky atop this list.
5. BUDDYS SAINT The king of New York-based Derby prospects after winning the Remson in late November. He scored his first career win in the Nashua Stakes; a feat not to be ignored, and ill-fated sire Saint Liam won both the Stephen Foster and Clark Handicaps at Churchill Downs.
6. WORLDLY Ran a better-than-it-looked third in the Kentucky Jockey Club and is preparing for the Derby at New Orleans Fair Grounds for Louisville-born trainer Paul McGee.
7. FLY DOWN Nick Zito-trained colt was an impressive maiden winner at two turns at Churchill Downs. Not a bad thing to have on the resumè heading in the winter in Florida.
8. RULE Nice-looking by hot first-crop sire Roman Ruler won the Delta Jackpot.
9. NOBLES PROMISE This Ken McPeek-trained runner enjoyed a strong fall and chased Lookin at Lucky in the CashCall Futurity. But cant see his sprinters pedigree going 1 1/4-miles on Derby Day.
10. JACKSON BEND Impressive in major 2-year-old races at Floridas Calder, but has the same pedigree problems as No. 9. But he is trained by Zito, and few are better at getting 3-year-olds to run long.
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Also note that Worldly (#6 on the list) is entered here as well.
YouTube - CHURCHILL DOWNS, 2009-11-26, Race 12
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