future pool time
rayphil
Senior Member
Lookin At Lucky top individual in Pool 1
By Marty McGee
Barbara D. Livingston
Lookin At Lucky is the shortest-priced individual interest in the pool at 81, followed by four horses at 12-1.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The first of three pools in the 2010 Kentucky Derby Future Wager opens Friday at noon Eastern with a couple of new wrinkles to what has become a familiar tradition on the road to the Derby.
Churchill Downs, which first offered parimutuel futures in 1999, has shortened each of its three annual pools from four days of action to three. In addition, exacta wagering will be offered with every pool; the introduction of exactas came last year with Pool 2.
Each of the three 2010 pools will run from a Friday to Sunday, with Thursdays having been eliminated. Pool 2 is set for March 5-7 and Pool 3 for March 26-28. One Kentucky Oaks futures pool will be offered to coincide with Derby Pool 2, although there will be no exacta futures on the Oaks.
Churchill Downs president Kevin Flanery said in an earlier release that the reason for the shorter wagering windows is to "sharpen the focus of our players, generate new excitement, and add to the fun of betting experiences" of fans. Historically, handle on Thursdays had been very light, as many horseplayers typically wait until that weekend's prep races are run before placing their wagers on a Saturday night or a Sunday.
As usual, the mutuel field, the 24th or "all others" option, has been pegged as the morning-line favorite over the 23 separately listed entries in Pool 1 for this year. The field has closed as the Pool 1 favorite every year.
Reigning divisional champion Lookin At Lucky is the second morning-line choice to the field at 8-1, according to track oddsmaker Mike Battaglia, followed by a foursome at 12-1: Buddy's Saint, Conveyance, Jackson Bend, and Rule.
The futures are nonrefundable wagers with $2 minimums. As with any parimutuel wager, odds will change throughout the weekend, with final odds established at closing time of 6 p.m. Eastern on Sunday.
Prep races to be run this Saturday are the Sam Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs and the Robert Lewis Memorial at Santa Anita. Two other preps will be run Monday after the pool has closed - the Southwest at Oaklawn and the San Vicente at Santa Anita.
Even with the addition of exactas for the final two pools last year, handle did not increase significantly from previous years. In fact, aggregate handle on the three Derby pools last year was $1,236,299, just seventh-highest of the 11 years that futures have been offered. The top aggregate handle of $1,665,990 was recorded in 2005.
The record payoff for a $2 future wager was $188 for Funny Cide in the first pool in 2003. Five of the last 11 Derby winners have been field horses at one time or another in at least one futures pool, including three who were field horses in all three pools: Charismatic (1999), War Emblem (2002), and Mine That Bird (2009).
Last year, the first exacta futures combining the field (Mine That Bird) and Pioneerof the Nile returned $256.80 and $554.60 for Pools 2 and 3, respectively. The exacta on Derby Day returned $2,074.80.
The 136th Derby is set for May 1 at Churchill.
2010 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 1 (Feb. 12-14)
1. Aikenite - 30-1
2. American Lion - 20-1
3. Buddy's Saint - 12-1
4. Concord Point - 30-1
5. Conveyance - 12-1
6. Dave in Dixie - 20-1
7. Drosselmeyer - 20-1
8. Dryfly - 20-1
9. Dublin - 15-1
10. Eskendereya - 20-1
11. Jackson Bend - 12-1
12. Lookin At Lucky - 8-1
13. Make Music For Me - 50-1
14. Maximus Ruler - 50-1
15. Noble's Promise - 15-1
16. Ron the Greek - 30-1
17. Rule - 12-1
18. Stay Put - 50-1
19. Super Saver - 15-1
20. Tiz Chrome - 20-1
21. Uptowncharlybrown - 50-1
22. Vale of York - 30-1
23. William's Kitten - 30-1
24. All other 3-year-olds - 5-2
By Marty McGee
Barbara D. Livingston
Lookin At Lucky is the shortest-priced individual interest in the pool at 81, followed by four horses at 12-1.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The first of three pools in the 2010 Kentucky Derby Future Wager opens Friday at noon Eastern with a couple of new wrinkles to what has become a familiar tradition on the road to the Derby.
Churchill Downs, which first offered parimutuel futures in 1999, has shortened each of its three annual pools from four days of action to three. In addition, exacta wagering will be offered with every pool; the introduction of exactas came last year with Pool 2.
Each of the three 2010 pools will run from a Friday to Sunday, with Thursdays having been eliminated. Pool 2 is set for March 5-7 and Pool 3 for March 26-28. One Kentucky Oaks futures pool will be offered to coincide with Derby Pool 2, although there will be no exacta futures on the Oaks.
Churchill Downs president Kevin Flanery said in an earlier release that the reason for the shorter wagering windows is to "sharpen the focus of our players, generate new excitement, and add to the fun of betting experiences" of fans. Historically, handle on Thursdays had been very light, as many horseplayers typically wait until that weekend's prep races are run before placing their wagers on a Saturday night or a Sunday.
As usual, the mutuel field, the 24th or "all others" option, has been pegged as the morning-line favorite over the 23 separately listed entries in Pool 1 for this year. The field has closed as the Pool 1 favorite every year.
Reigning divisional champion Lookin At Lucky is the second morning-line choice to the field at 8-1, according to track oddsmaker Mike Battaglia, followed by a foursome at 12-1: Buddy's Saint, Conveyance, Jackson Bend, and Rule.
The futures are nonrefundable wagers with $2 minimums. As with any parimutuel wager, odds will change throughout the weekend, with final odds established at closing time of 6 p.m. Eastern on Sunday.
Prep races to be run this Saturday are the Sam Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs and the Robert Lewis Memorial at Santa Anita. Two other preps will be run Monday after the pool has closed - the Southwest at Oaklawn and the San Vicente at Santa Anita.
Even with the addition of exactas for the final two pools last year, handle did not increase significantly from previous years. In fact, aggregate handle on the three Derby pools last year was $1,236,299, just seventh-highest of the 11 years that futures have been offered. The top aggregate handle of $1,665,990 was recorded in 2005.
The record payoff for a $2 future wager was $188 for Funny Cide in the first pool in 2003. Five of the last 11 Derby winners have been field horses at one time or another in at least one futures pool, including three who were field horses in all three pools: Charismatic (1999), War Emblem (2002), and Mine That Bird (2009).
Last year, the first exacta futures combining the field (Mine That Bird) and Pioneerof the Nile returned $256.80 and $554.60 for Pools 2 and 3, respectively. The exacta on Derby Day returned $2,074.80.
The 136th Derby is set for May 1 at Churchill.
2010 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 1 (Feb. 12-14)
1. Aikenite - 30-1
2. American Lion - 20-1
3. Buddy's Saint - 12-1
4. Concord Point - 30-1
5. Conveyance - 12-1
6. Dave in Dixie - 20-1
7. Drosselmeyer - 20-1
8. Dryfly - 20-1
9. Dublin - 15-1
10. Eskendereya - 20-1
11. Jackson Bend - 12-1
12. Lookin At Lucky - 8-1
13. Make Music For Me - 50-1
14. Maximus Ruler - 50-1
15. Noble's Promise - 15-1
16. Ron the Greek - 30-1
17. Rule - 12-1
18. Stay Put - 50-1
19. Super Saver - 15-1
20. Tiz Chrome - 20-1
21. Uptowncharlybrown - 50-1
22. Vale of York - 30-1
23. William's Kitten - 30-1
24. All other 3-year-olds - 5-2
Comments
Dublin completely flames out in his first start at a mile (which wasn't even two turns), and hasn't run since he was a 2yo. That makes him 15/1 to win the Derby? Almost three months before the race???
Concord Point wins a maiden sprint, and apparently that's enough to make him 30/1.
Tiz Chrome has yet to even attempt two turns, and he's listed @ 20/1. Same deal with American Lion. Their Bob Lewis entrymate Dave in Dixie hasn't run since October of last year, when he ran 6th in the Norfolk. That's good enough to make him 20/1 as well.
Rule wins the Delta Jackpot, and gets listed @ 12/1.
Conveyance beats a 5-horse field as a heavy favorite, and that's enough to make him 12/1 to win the Derby. Which again, is nearly 3 months away.
Etc, etc.
Speaking of Lookin at Lucky (and the fact that he's only raced on synthetic) it's rather amazing that in this dirt/synthetic era, people seem to think that success on a dirt track implies that a horse is "proven on dirt" in a general sense. When in reality, the fact remains that all the different dirt tracks are, well, different. Just because a horse likes Belmont or Saratoga or Gulfstream or Fair Grounds doesn't necessarily mean he's going to like Churchill Downs. And you need look no farther than last year to know that it actually rains sometimes, too. A win over the Churchill surface (ala Tiz Chrome) is preferable, but aside from that, I don't think surface is a huge handicapping angle for Derby futures. Heck, one of the best future tickets I've ever had (Peace Rules @ 200/1) came when I took a flyer on a turf horse to win the Derby. Barbaro also came from off the grass, of course, so you just never know.
I never book them too seriously as I like small wagers to give me horses to root for throughout the derby preps.
Tiz Chrome may see a little cash if he runs well Saturday (and doesnt get hammered down).
I was impressed with Drosselmeyer, but 20-1? I'd need atleast 35-1 to book anything more than a $4 wager. I do like Conveyance but he has alot to prove monday.
Everything is gonna depend on odds come Saturday evening and I'll maybe play 2 small wagers on horses to root for.
Last weekend, Bob Lewis entrant Dave in Dixie was being offered @ 80/1 at both the Wynn and Lucky's.
Now, with Dave in Dixie being listed at 20/1 ml in Round One of the KDFW, Wynn has chopped the price in half (40/1), while Lucky's went even lower (30/1).
Btw, it's pretty amazing that the Churchill Downs people were able to fit a one-time maiden sprint winner like Concord Point into their 23-horse Derby pool, but somehow Caracortado didn't meet their standards.
Sunday Alert
be on the lookout for miss bulldog in the 7th i think it is. lynn whiting's horse and i am best friends with the jock. he really really likes this first timer. he also likes his horse in the feature (allowance race) tap tap tapping. broke his maiden in his second start here a couple of weeks ago and would have won his debut at turfway if it weren't for going 7 wide to avoid the crap hitting his face. turfway has a piece of crap track. freddie said horses HATE it because the kickback is the worst anywhere by far. said it felt like bricks hitting you. his horse took him 7 wide on the final turn and was out by the outside rail and still got up for 4th or 3rd. can't remember. anyway, be on he lookout for him
Play online through Twinspires. Opened up at 2-1, drifted to 3-1 less than 30 seconds later, and now sitting at a cool 5-1. :thumbup1:
Tap Tap Tapping is currently 3/5 though with 13 mtp...
Miss Bulldog is entered in Race 11 @ Oaklawn tomorrow.
Interesting note: There's a full brother to Shamardal entered @ Del Mar today. First time turf.