Blind Luck

InTheFogInTheFog Senior Member
edited March 2010 in Horse Racing Forum
With some place to run she would have won, I didn't bet the race but looking at the race , shut off at the rail cost her the race, she would have blew by them she also had to hold back at top of the stretch. No luck for Blind Luck.

Comments

  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited March 2010
    Just went back and looked at the replay, because during the race i had been focused in on my pick Crisp (sweet). Have to disagree with you here. Blind Luck ran a very nice race, as usual, but in this case i think she simply gave away too much ground early, and was left with too much to do. The rider (Bejarano) had her in the clear for most of the race, but then opted to steer her inside for the stretch run, for reasons i really don't understand. As a result of that, she was lacking a bit room in the late stages, but she was still a couple of lengths behind at that point and it's not like she was really impeded in any kind of major way. She definitely didn't get "shut off" as you mentioned in your post. Would she have gotten there with a clear run on the outside? I don't know, maybe. It would've been close either way. Bottom line, she's a very nice filly but her reputation had gottena little bit out of hand. She was a gigantic underlay, not only today but also in the Las Virgenes. Crisp is no pushover, and she proved that today.

    Incidentally, i was very impressed with the second-place finisher All Due Respect, who was shipping in from the Midwest after being acquired by Kathy Walsh. How that lady gets these type horses to improve so dramaticall is anyone;s guess (we touched on that subject here yesterday), but All Due Respect was incredibly game on the lead here and just didn't want to let Crisp get by. Watching the race i though Crisp had her pretty much whenever she wanted, but All Due Respect really dug-in and was nearly able to hold her off. They even engaged in some bumping, it looked like. Fantastic effort by that one to just miss at the wire.
  • fbwinnersfbwinners Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    I played All Due Respect, Werner had her at the FG and then she got transferd to K. Walsh. One hell of a race and you got me at the wire. Rafel B. has given Blind Luck too much to do in each of her last two races. She was lucky to win last out and still cannot believe she won that race. Rafel B. gave Mandella horse a bad ride in the Sham go back and watch that replay and give me you opinion.


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  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited March 2010
    I was on Setsuko as well. He was caught behind horses much of the way, but i'm not sure that was Bejarano's fault, as Setsuko just doesn't have a lot of speed. He does have a very powerful stretch kick however once he gets straightened away in the lane, so my primary concern was that Bejarano get him out into the clear and just let him do his thing late. He (Setsuko) pretty much did that, but unfortunately he wasn't able to get out in time, and Alphie's Bet just got the jump on him (nice run from that one, btw). I can see Setsuko having a legit chance in the Derby, but the problem is that he doesn't figure for a great trip due to his lack of speed and the overflow 20-horse field. He seems destined for traffic trouble, assuming he gets there in the first place (still only $30,000 in graded earnings after today). If he somehow gets into the clear and gets his legs going though, i think he could potentially win it. Not sure i've seen a better late-runner on the Derby Trail thus far, and the race seems to be taking on a speed-heavy look, at least at this point.
  • InTheFogInTheFog Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Jockey Rafael Bejarano rode Blind Luck and was critical of his ride in the stretch, when he guided his mount toward the rail instead of trying to rally to the outside between fading rivals.

    "I missed my hole," he said. "She was best."


    I have to Agree.
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    I have to agree with the fact that IF she had clear sailing she was the best.

    However, this is part of handicapping! You know she is going to be coming from dead last and will need that perfect ride to win each time unless the pace completely collapses. Crisp was clearly going to get the jump on her today and that's part of the reason to bet her. Traffic and trip are viable handicapping aspects and I'm not even remotely surprised this happened. Wait til this one has a 12 horse field and needs to go 8 wide or thread the needle.

    This is another reason I give Zenyatta so much credit as she is the only horse I know the overcome even the worst pace scenario's, traffic trouble, and wide trips....everytime.

    Christina Daae saw my money for Oaks future over BL for this very reason.
  • rayphilrayphil Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    i have to disagree...even in her last race he said he gave her to much to do and he was over confident...he was plenty back turning for home and he was even pushing her yet...i just think he didnt have no room because he pushed the button to late..i agree with you that if she had clear sailing she was best but she should of never been on rail....she was last so she could of went anywhere...
  • rhgrahamrhgraham Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Mike Smith may be better suited to ride her.
  • Bill KBill K Junior Member
    edited March 2010
    Look for Gomez to take over here or Rosario in next race. Both riders are excellent with deep closers
  • rayphilrayphil Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    how about putting tyler back on her.....i like mike smith on her because you know he is good with the girls....
  • fbwinnersfbwinners Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Heard this morninig she is going to ship to Oaklawn for the Fantasy.


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