Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow

DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
edited March 2012 in Horse Racing Forum
Kentucky Derby Future Wager: Field a heavy favorite, Algorithms at 8-1 on morning line | Daily Racing Form

Here's the field:

1. Algorithms 8-1
2. Alpha 20-1
3. Battle Hardened 30-1
4. Creative Cause 20-1
5. Discreet Dancer 15-1
6. Dullahan 20-1
7. El Padrino 20-1
8. Empire Way 50-1
9. Ever So Lucky 20-1
10. Fed Biz 20-1
11. Gemologist 20-1
12. Hansen 12-1
13. I’ll Have Another 20-1
14. Junebugred 50-1
15. Liaison 20-1
16. Longview Drive 50-1
17. Midnight Transfer 50-1
18. Mr. Bowling 50-1
19. Out of Bounds 20-1
20. Rousing Sermon 30-1
21. Sabercat 30-1
22. Take Charge Indy 30-1
23. Union Rags 10-1
24. Mutuel field (all others) 9-5
«1

Comments

  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited February 2012
    For what it's worth, Fed Biz is running @ Santa Anita today (Race 2).
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    Personally I'm surprised Algorithims is a smaller price than Union Rags. Not too many plays look worth taking. I'll follow prices on El Padrino, Discreet Dancer, and Out of Bounds to see how much money they take.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited February 2012
    FlyinLate wrote: »
    Personally I'm surprised Algorithims is a smaller price than Union Rags.

    Well, he DID win a one-turn race in January over five opponents on a sloppy track... :rolleyes:
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    For what it's worth, Fed Biz is running @ Santa Anita today (Race 2).

    I wanted a little piece of this one. If he runs huge today, his price drops a ton??? Maybe not, I'm sure he's expected to romp.
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    Unfortunately, IMHO, if he runs lights out I'd say his odds drop by 5 compared to if he had never run this week. There is nothing worse than having the horse you've been following entered the weekend of the future. A big performance will wreck your odds.

    I've been meaning to ask everyone, what are your thoughts on I'll Have Another? Fluke or was that a serious performance? He did destroy a handful of Cali's top contenders.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    They should have a trainer bet, too.

    Like:

    Baffert 7/5
    Pletcher 8/5
    All Others 1/5

    But, give me 25 choices.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    FlyinLate wrote: »
    Unfortunately, IMHO, if he runs lights out I'd say his odds drop by 5 compared to if he had never run this week. There is nothing worse than having the horse you've been following entered the weekend of the future. A big performance will wreck your odds.

    I've been meaning to ask everyone, what are your thoughts on I'll Have Another? Fluke or was that a serious performance? He did destroy a handful of Cali's top contenders.

    Yeah. He's a Derby horse. Can't bet him now IMO. We'll see.
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    Yeah. He's a Derby horse. Can't bet him now IMO. We'll see.

    He looked awful good. Let's watch him open up @ something like 13-1 tomorrow now :angry:

    Good luck to everyone who plays the futures. I'll post any plays I do decide to jump aboard come Sunday. Let's get em posted and see if anyone is lucky come May.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    FlyinLate wrote: »
    He looked awful good. Let's watch him open up @ something like 13-1 tomorrow now :angry:

    Good luck to everyone who plays the futures. I'll post any plays I do decide to jump aboard come Sunday. Let's get em posted and see if anyone is lucky come May.

    Yeah. I should have bet him in Vegas last weekend. I was a mess. But yeah, I think he made a mockery of a few nice ones today - going two turns quickly, on dirt, with ease. And, he never looked timid, ever. Scary to think that he could be pretty darn good on grass too (later in life I'm sure).
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    I feel like FIELD @ 3/2 is the best bet right? If It drifts up to 5/2 tee off time?
  • turfmanturfman Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    $50.00 To Win On 4 Horses

    1. Rousing Sermon.....30/1

    2. I'll Have Another.....20/1

    3. Liaison.....20/1

    4. Algorithms.....8/1


    Good Luck And Good Racing!!!!!
  • husker70husker70 Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    I feel like FIELD @ 3/2 is the best bet right? If It drifts up to 5/2 tee off time?


    I AGREE....THE FIELD HAS WON THE LAST 3 OF 4 YEARS.....9/5 ...OR A TICK LESS IS FINE...

    LOCAL VEGAS CAN STILL BET AT WYNN'S,LUCKY'S,AND HILTON......OR BETFAIR OFF/SHORE...AFTER SUNDAY
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    KY Derby Futures 1 $50.00 WN 7 $50.00 $0.00
    KY Derby Futures 1 $50.00 WN 10,24 $100.00 $0.00

    Took a Pletcher, a Baffert, and the field small for fun. We'll check prices @ the end of the weekend before we make some real bets - I just always seem to forget it closes early.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    NUMBER NAME TRAINER MORNING LINE CURRENT ODDS
    1 Algorithms Todd Pletcher 8 17
    2 Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin 20 21
    3 Battle Hardened Eddie Kenneally 30 76
    4 Creative Cause Mike Harrington 20 27
    5 Discreet Dancer Todd Pletcher 15 41
    6 Dullahan Dale Romans 20 52
    7 El Padrino Todd Pletcher 20 33
    8 Empire Way Mike Harrington 50 42
    9 Ever So Lucky Jonathan Sheppard 20 79
    10 Fed Biz Bob Baffert 20 31
    11 Gemologist Todd Pletcher 20 42
    12 Hansen Michael Maker 12 24
    13 I'll Have Another Doug O'Neill 20 41
    14 Junebugred Steve Hobby 50 62
    15 Liaison Bob Baffert 20 69
    16 Longview Drive Jerry Hollendorfer 50 99
    17 Midnight Transfer Carla Gaines 50 74
    18 Mr. Bowling J. Jones 50 99
    19 Out of Bounds Eoin Harty 20 44
    20 Rousing Sermon Jerry Hollendorfer 30 77
    21 Sabercat Steven Asmussen 30 37
    22 Take Charge Indy Patrick Byrne 30 83
    23 Union Rags Michael Matz 10 8
    24 All Other Three Ye Unknown Trainer 9/5 3/5
  • Horsin~AroHorsin~Aro Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    I agree with dirtyshirt on the 5/2 Bandwagon for the field which is normally where the field pool starts out at.
  • fbwinnersfbwinners Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    NUMBER NAME TRAINER MORNING LINE CURRENT ODDS
    1 Algorithms Todd Pletcher 8 17
    2 Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin 20 21
    3 Battle Hardened Eddie Kenneally 30 76
    4 Creative Cause Mike Harrington 20 27
    5 Discreet Dancer Todd Pletcher 15 41
    6 Dullahan Dale Romans 20 52
    7 El Padrino Todd Pletcher 20 33
    8 Empire Way Mike Harrington 50 42
    9 Ever So Lucky Jonathan Sheppard 20 79
    10 Fed Biz Bob Baffert 20 31
    11 Gemologist Todd Pletcher 20 42
    12 Hansen Michael Maker 12 24
    13 I'll Have Another Doug O'Neill 20 41
    14 Junebugred Steve Hobby 50 62
    15 Liaison Bob Baffert 20 69
    16 Longview Drive Jerry Hollendorfer 50 99
    17 Midnight Transfer Carla Gaines 50 74
    18 Mr. Bowling J. Jones 50 99
    19 Out of Bounds Eoin Harty 20 44
    20 Rousing Sermon Jerry Hollendorfer 30 77
    21 Sabercat Steven Asmussen 30 37
    22 Take Charge Indy Patrick Byrne 30 83
    23 Union Rags Michael Matz 10 8
    24 All Other Three Ye Unknown Trainer 9/5 3/5



    I will take a stab on these tomorrow close to final post at the FG.

    El Padrino - 30-1 or more

    Midnight Transfer - 60 -1 or more

    Creative Cause - 30- 1 or more
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    I missed it like usual. The Field closed @ 3/2.

    I ended up with El Padrino @ 16-1 (He'll be higher on Derby Day, shitty bet), Fed Biz @ 21/1 (It's whatever, this one looks the part for sure, no distance concerns either), and the field @ 3/2 to pay for my other two retarded bets. I just like to have something to follow.

    BTW The Baffert 3YO filly looked awful good today. She's in the field.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    The public bet down Union Rags, then Javier chose Algorithms. Hmmmm.

    Ever So Lucky might have been worth a small play @ 55-1.

    Anybody else get down here?
  • HoudiniHoudini Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    dirtyshirt wrote: »
    The public bet down Union Rags, then Javier chose Algorithms. Hmmmm.

    Ever So Lucky might have been worth a small play @ 55-1.

    Anybody else get down here?

    My donation went to Midnight Transfer
  • FlyinLateFlyinLate Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    I donated small money to
    Fed Biz
    Discreet Dancer
    I'll Have Another
  • horshumaguhorshumagu Junior Member
    edited February 2012
    I took Liaison at 56-1, seemed like a nice price for Bafferts best. He's got enough in graded earning already, and the Lewis is a toss imo. Indian Charlie blood scares me but the Dam's side is pretty nice.
  • renee'renee' Junior Member
    edited February 2012
    Central Kentucky has been hit with drought conditions the past two years. The Farmer's Almanac says this year will be wet. I hope it starts on the first Saturday in May. I played El Padrino and got 16-1, but was hoping for 25-1 or better. I hate the odds but I am stuck with it now. How do you like my reasoned wager? I must be mad at my money to wager on a horse with zero graded earnings!
  • renee'renee' Junior Member
    edited February 2012
    I forgot that El Padrino ran 2nd in the Remsen last November and does have graded earnings but not enough. He is going to the Risin Star in New Orleans and looking for more earnings, and a wet track, and a good chance of that at the Fair Grounds.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited February 2012
    dirtyshirt wrote: »

    BTW The Baffert 3YO filly looked awful good today. She's in the field.

    That one is actually on my radar a little bit. Looking for owner/trainer quotes as they become available. Of course, Baffert already has Fed Biz and Bodemeister to work with, so it's probably nothing more than a back-burner thing at this point. Something to follow though, for sure.
  • rayphilrayphil Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    does it change anyone opinions that javier chose algorithms to ride over union rags in the foy
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    That one is actually on my radar a little bit. Looking for owner/trainer quotes as they become available. Of course, Baffert already has Fed Biz and Bodemeister to work with, so it's probably nothing more than a back-burner thing at this point. Something to follow though, for sure.

    Is the Lemon Drop Kid colt, Stirred Up worth mention? Was Bodemeister too good? Joel too patient (Trevor even pointed it out)? Baffert playing games? I'm not sure, he looked average to me, but was never asked, and likely will run the Derby distance. Worth a shot in Vegas or over it guys?
  • John GreenhawJohn Greenhaw Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    This could be the Year of the BOUNCE!!!

    Sure as hell hard to get anything to run back after a big effort so far this year. I get the feeling in about 4 weeks I'm going to be looking for the next Funnycide?
  • John GreenhawJohn Greenhaw Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    rayphil wrote: »
    does it change anyone opinions that javier chose algorithms to ride over union rags in the foy

    Ray, here are my thoughts on Javier jumping off Union Rags. You know how quirkey Michael Matz is! UR does not need the $$$ to get in to the Derby. He's in!!!

    It doesn't make a rat's ass how he runs in the FOY, Matz will train up to the Derby. He did it before with success, and he'll do it again. That means that Leparoux will be sitting on the sidelines for several weeks with no meaningful mounts because all serious players will have already gotten committments from jocks. Nobody will pick up Leparoux if he is on UR.

    Conversely, Castellano is in the cat bird's seat with a shitload of TAP mounts at his disposal. It's like Michael told Tom Hagen, "It's the smart move, and Javier was always the smart one"

    Apologies to Coppola, couldn't resist.

    Union Rags may well turn out to be a great horse, but it won't be with a hot jockey who refuses to put all his eggs in one basket.
  • jenroypajenroypa Senior Member
    edited February 2012
    anybody know who DRAYNAY likes? lol..
Sign In or Register to comment.