Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One)
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Opens this Friday and runs thru Sunday (6:00 pm Eastern Time). Here are the betting numbers and morning lines:
1. Capo Bastone, 30-1
2. Code West, 50-1
3. Delhomme, 30-1
4. Den’s Legacy, 30-1
5. Dynamic Sky, 30-1
6. Falling Sky, 30-1
7. Flashback, 15-1
8. Frac Daddy, 50-1
9. Goldencents, 20-1
10. He’s Had Enough, 50-1
11. Itsmyluckyday, 15-1
12. Mylute, 30-1
13. Normandy Invasion, 20-1
14. Overanalyze, 15-1
15. Oxbow, 20-1
16. Revolutionary, 20-1
17. Shanghai Bobby, 12-1
18. Super Ninety Nine, 20-1
19. Uncaptured, 20-1
20. Verrazano, 15-1
21. Violence, 12-1
22. Vyjack, 20-1
23. Will Take Charge, 30-1
24. Field (all others), 9-5
1. Capo Bastone, 30-1
2. Code West, 50-1
3. Delhomme, 30-1
4. Den’s Legacy, 30-1
5. Dynamic Sky, 30-1
6. Falling Sky, 30-1
7. Flashback, 15-1
8. Frac Daddy, 50-1
9. Goldencents, 20-1
10. He’s Had Enough, 50-1
11. Itsmyluckyday, 15-1
12. Mylute, 30-1
13. Normandy Invasion, 20-1
14. Overanalyze, 15-1
15. Oxbow, 20-1
16. Revolutionary, 20-1
17. Shanghai Bobby, 12-1
18. Super Ninety Nine, 20-1
19. Uncaptured, 20-1
20. Verrazano, 15-1
21. Violence, 12-1
22. Vyjack, 20-1
23. Will Take Charge, 30-1
24. Field (all others), 9-5
Comments
Very much agree with the field.
Capo, Verazzano, and Normandy Invasion are all on my radar, but I will need them to drift up quite a good deal to garner a wager. Its odd that the first pool moves to a weekend with little derby prep outcome, so we likely will know by Saturday morning where the lines will be. There won't be any massive late shift like usual depending on an all star performance.
It's the cost of tying up that money that you have to evaluate too, IMO. But this year, with the new points system, and 2yo races counting for much less, FIELD will be the only playable bet in this (parimutual - don't act like you're playing against the house) wager.
Thoughts?
He should be 10/1 or lower IMO.
Nobody should ever be under 10/1 in the beginning of Feb.
That's an exceptional point. Not at all sure about even-money, but @ 3/2 or so i think you may be onto something. We're definitely into some new territory here....will be interesting to see how it plays out.
I'm scared of like, maybe, 2 horses on that original list. With the points system, maybe 4 horses from the original 23 will even be in the gate. 2/5 might be value (kidding), but do you want to tie up the cash?
DC - It's even more of a disparity than I thought, and Pletcher has 7 of the 23 entries anyways.
Look at this progression:
Southwest Stakes: 17 points - $300k
Rebel Stakes: 85 points - $600k
Arkansas Derby - 170 point - $1,000k
So essentially: the Southwest used to be worth 1/2 as much as the Southwest, and 1/3 of the Arkansas Derby. Now the Southwest is worth 1/5 of the Rebel and 1/10 of the Derby.
IMO the field is gonna have TONS of late bloomers, including those who pick up the pieces of the major events. It's structured the same in CA, NY, and FLA with regards to the preps.
This could be a very lucrative wager. Possibly one you could turn into a guaranteed profit before the race with a couple hedges.
Field is 6/5. But again, to put this in persective - Shanghai Bobby (2yo champ) only has 24 points (he's the leader). That means with 1,200 more points up for grabs, this list of 23 is shit.
I'm gonna bet 5k FIELD @EVEN money or better on Sunday, and sort it out later.
And furthermore, Shanghai Bobby is currently 8-1. SMFH.
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 Odds | 2013 Kentucky Oaks & Derby | May 3 and 4, 2013 | Tickets, Events, News
Not sure where your other thread is, but the news on the side of the links says Coolmore bought a piece of Verrazano.
KY Derby Futures 1 $250.00 WN 24 $250.00 Pending
KY Derby Futures 1 $250.00 WN 24 $250.00 Pending
KY Derby Futures 1 $250.00 WN 24 $250.00 Pending
KY Derby Futures 1 $250.00 WN 24 $250.00 Pending
Go figure, I was on the golf course and missed the deadline again. I guess that makes it $1,000 @ 8/5. Let's go Palace Malice. Or any of the 15 Baffert horses that still have a shot. Or Always In A Tiz. Or Eddie K's REAL horse, not the piece of shit he sold Dennis (LOL, and even Mudflaps would make this bet a winner).
Let's go 24. You're the color-bearer for the whole HRT team.
Well now, Orb and I've Struck a Nerve have twice the points of Shanghai Bobby and He's Had Enough (Who has had enough).
Still think this is true, but actually they went pretty fucking fast up front. 12-1 was, and is, still idiotic.
Mike, I'm not sure, but I would get some @ 50-1 or better. I would also grab a little Shakin' It Up for Baffert.
My sincere hope is that the points system still hasn't sunk in with these morons (if you're out there everyday - you know), and field goes off at 4 or 5-1. I'll reinvest, as more than half of the points will be up for grabs, and furthermore, the list of 23 entries will be vastly different. (So - in theory you could WIN the #24 bet in the second pool, but lose the first, if one of the original listed horses wins).