I dunno about chalk chalk up top this is a 20 horse field traffic issues will occur it's still gonna take a fair amount of luck for your selection to be there at the end of the race no matter who you've got
AP won't have traffic issues ... His natural speed and how quickly he gets into gear means he should either get the lead or just be able to pick his spot sitting right off cheap speed if one of the lesser horses just decides to send hard.
All the decent horses in the race probably think they have a legit shot so they won't do anything stupid and try to push AP hard in the front and sacrifice there chances. They will just hope AP can't get the distance ....
You might have some cheap speed like Stanford or Ocho go early but that will just be a target for AP ...
Sounds like you've got AP tracking in 3rd along the rail around the first turn. I've got him 7 wide mid pack. I've got him shitting the bed down the stretch. I've got him off my tickets.
Dag Noble, you are hoping for a huge exacta......
I'm with Sky on this one. Ocho, Sanford and American Pharoh will be my senerio for the pace setters. With Dortmund, Firing Line, Carpe Diem, Mubtaahij etc. Right behind them, waiting to pounce. The exact will pay good even with American Pharoh on Top....
This is on a no trouble break of course.
Sounds like you've got AP tracking in 3rd along the rail around the first turn. I've got him 7 wide mid pack. I've got him shitting the bed down the stretch. I've got him off my tickets.
I don't know where you got that I think he will be sitting 3rd from based of my post that you responded to ....
I guess I need to clarify myself ... I think the most likely scenario is that he goes to the lead.... He is the fastest horse and gets into stride so easily early on and Baffert is the type of guy that will let his horses show speed if they have speed. It's possible that either a horse like Ocho or Stanford could just quarter horse it and AP ends up sitting second or less likely but still possible that multiple horses quarter horse and AP is sitting third , but I think the far most likely scenario is he goes to the lead ....
Secondly I don't see where you get him sitting mid pack from ... Do you really believe six other horses have shown to be faster early and better gate horses them him ? Why would Baffert have Victor take him back my mid pack ? That would not only be asking for traffic issues but also be taking AP out of his comfort zone ... I have heard many expert analysts give there two cents on the race and some I agree with and some I don't, but I have not heard one of them say they expect AP to be mid pack in the race .... I am not saying your wrong. I am just pointing out your mid pack theory for AP is one that to the best of my knowledge is shared by you and only you ... ( I am not counting your buddies on the forum here that will undoubtly rush to your rescue claiming AP will be mid pack )
As far as you saying that I think AP will be on the rail if he has to sit behind horses .... I re read my post again and I didn't see where I ever mentioned the rail. That would be foolish of me to say that because that depends on what post he draws. If he draws post 1 and somebody quarter horses it than he might get stuck rating on the rail but if he draws post 20 than he would most likely be sitting right outside of any cheap speed. I don't have my crystal ball with me to tell where he will draw so maybe I can borrow yours ?
Although I will say this even if he draws inside and there is cheap speed than I would still guess that Victor would do like he did with Chrome and use AP natural speed to make his own luck and guide the horse right outside any cheap speed. Of course if AP does go to the lead which is most likely that I am sure he will be put on the rail since that's the shortest way around the track unless of course the inside of the track is playing bad but that's usually not the case at Churchill even when it rains ...
You said you think AP will be shitting the bed in the stretch and your leaving him off all your tickets . Don't get me wrong horse racing is a pari mutuel game so the more tickets you leave AP off of that's just more money in my pocket. I hope you can convince every bettor that AP is going to be shitting the bed down the stretch and won't hit the board . I honestly mean that , but just out of curiousity which one of his previous races led you to the conclusion he can't get the distance ? Which one of his previous races led you to believe he does not have the early speed to be sitting anything other than mid pack ? What could he have done in any of his previous races to be more impressive ? Or is it just a hunch or feeling that you have ? Or are you just one of those type of guys that like to hate on horses like California Chrome and AP come derby time just because .... Or are you one of the guys comparing the UAE derby horse to Secretariat ?
Anyways I hope you continue to preach on and convert many people over to the leave off AP on all your tickets bandwagon. I got a 60 inch 4k that I have my eye on that would look great on my wall
I don't know where you got that I think he will be sitting 3rd from based of my post that you responded to ....
I guess I need to clarify myself ... I think the most likely scenario is that he goes to the lead.... He is the fastest horse and gets into stride so easily early on and Baffert is the type of guy that will let his horses show speed if they have speed. It's possible that either a horse like Ocho or Stanford could just quarter horse it and AP ends up sitting second or less likely but still possible that multiple horses quarter horse and AP is sitting third , but I think the far most likely scenario is he goes to the lead ....
Secondly I don't see where you get him sitting mid pack from ... Do you really believe six other horses have shown to be faster early and better gate horses them him ? Why would Baffert have Victor take him back my mid pack ? That would not only be asking for traffic issues but also be taking AP out of his comfort zone ... I have heard many expert analysts give there two cents on the race and some I agree with and some I don't, but I have not heard one of them say they expect AP to be mid pack in the race .... I am not saying your wrong. I am just pointing out your mid pack theory for AP is one that to the best of my knowledge is shared by you and only you ... ( I am not counting your buddies on the forum here that will undoubtly rush to your rescue claiming AP will be mid pack )
As far as you saying that I think AP will be on the rail if he has to sit behind horses .... I re read my post again and I didn't see where I ever mentioned the rail. That would be foolish of me to say that because that depends on what post he draws. If he draws post 1 and somebody quarter horses it than he might get stuck rating on the rail but if he draws post 20 than he would most likely be sitting right outside of any cheap speed. I don't have my crystal ball with me to tell where he will draw so maybe I can borrow yours ?
Although I will say this even if he draws inside and there is cheap speed than I would still guess that Victor would do like he did with Chrome and use AP natural speed to make his own luck and guide the horse right outside any cheap speed. Of course if AP does go to the lead which is most likely that I am sure he will be put on the rail since that's the shortest way around the track unless of course the inside of the track is playing bad but that's usually not the case at Churchill even when it rains ...
You said you think AP will be shitting the bed in the stretch and your leaving him off all your tickets . Don't get me wrong horse racing is a pari mutuel game so the more tickets you leave AP off of that's just more money in my pocket. I hope you can convince every bettor that AP is going to be shitting the bed down the stretch and won't hit the board . I honestly mean that , but just out of curiousity which one of his previous races led you to the conclusion he can't get the distance ? Which one of his previous races led you to believe he does not have the early speed to be sitting anything other than mid pack ? What could he have done in any of his previous races to be more impressive ? Or is it just a hunch or feeling that you have ? Or are you just one of those type of guys that like to hate on horses like California Chrome and AP come derby time just because .... Or are you one of the guys comparing the UAE derby horse to Secretariat ?
Anyways I hope you continue to preach on and convert many people over to the leave off AP on all your tickets bandwagon. I got a 60 inch 4k that I have my eye on that would look great on my wall
I guess the title of the thread doesn't mean anything, as most of you all have noticed I was posting great nuggets of info for people to view about the horses they were interested and then this thread becomes a complete joke. It takes many hours a day to find nuggets, and if you want to talk about how this horse is going to win and how this one is going to run up the track then start a thread just for that type of bullshit!! None of us have any idea how the race will be run, everyone keeps saying Stanford is going to be on the lead and if he probably won't be in the gate next Saturday. The field isn't determined yet and won't be determined until this weekends works. It would be greatly appreciate if we could see some solid information posted instead of a bashing session.
Victor on the local news here in So Cal... Says American Pharaoh is the smartest horse he's ever ridden, doesn't have to be on the lead, and alludes to a Triple Crown, saying as long as we don't have a problem in the Derby the horse cruises at Belmont.
Tom Amoss said after the Rebel that he could only remember being able to notice with the naked eye a horse substantially quicken like AP did and that was Wise Dan. He said if AP carries that race to Kentucky than he doesn't know how anybody can beat him.
Again this was before the performance he put on in the Arkansas Derby .... Just a nugget I found .
On my personal #'s, Materiality actually regressed off his 2nd win. I could never back a horse with only 3 lifetime starts for the win in the Ky Derby. I'm very HIGH on Carpe, he has all the tools. His only negative for me is TAP!!! Here is one stat for the FORUM TAP's record at 9F races or longer at CH is 60-1-4-7 (1.7%)!!!
that is just a crazy stat..that percentage is almost what carpe cost....I think the florida derby was an extremely tough race cause of that track. and I dont have materiality or upstart bouncing back..
Victor on the local news here in So Cal... Says American Pharaoh is the smartest horse he's ever ridden, doesn't have to be on the lead, and alludes to a Triple Crown, saying as long as we don't have a problem in the Derby the horse cruises at Belmont.
Hard to say anything bad about AP, but when his jockey of is being interviewed on the local news a week before the horse starts as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby, what is he going to say about him? Bad stuff? Of course he's going to heap superlatives on the horse (many or all of which may be deserved, but you see my point).
On my personal #'s, Materiality actually regressed off his 2nd win. I could never back a horse with only 3 lifetime starts for the win in the Ky Derby. I'm very HIGH on Carpe, he has all the tools. His only negative for me is TAP!!! Here is one stat for the FORUM TAP's record at 9F races or longer at CH is 60-1-4-7 (1.7%)!!!
Bad enough by itself, but even worse when you consider how many favorites that guy is starting...
I just watched the works for Stanford and Madefromlucky and both these colts should not be in the starting gate next Saturday. Madefromlucky is a few notches below this group at best. Stanford has the look of a run off type was gawking at everything in the infield!! Complete tosses if they get in the gate!!
I just watched the works for Stanford and Madefromlucky and both these colts should not be in the starting gate next Saturday. Madefromlucky is a few notches below this group at best. Stanford has the look of a run off type was gawking at everything in the infield!! Complete tosses if they get in the gate!!
Zito may get a little closer to the gate if any defections come up in the next week. He really wants Frammento to get in! TAP knows he only has two contenders, CD and Materiality. His meeting yesterday at Keeneland with Winstar principals Troutt and Walden kind of says it all, not to mention JV and JC getting early calls. Friday and Saturday weather in Louisville looks bad, and you never know who will come back to the barn a little off, but every year somebody does?
I was looking over the PP''a today and I noticed Oxho in his 6 or so lifetime races he has only gone to the lead once and that was in the Bluegrass where he drew the rail and there was no other pace in the race so he basically just got the lead by default ...
I myself have been just as guilty as others saying that Ocho was the likely pacesetter if AP didn't go, but really on further review Dortmund, Materiality and Upstart just off the top of my head have shown more speed early than Oxho, although when really looking hard at it if AP gets any kind of a decent post Position it's hard to not see him get the lead unless one of the trainers is willing to sacrifice his horses chances to outgun AP early which I doubt because of the illusion it's a wide open race ...
if i was BB i would love the 20 hole for AP..i dont want to discuss no more pace until weds. after 530...
There is no doubt AP could pull a Big Brown and win from the 20 post, and while I agree with you that a outside post draw would be ideal, in a perfect world I am thinking the 15 post would be perfect with no horse to his direct inside and if he really got lucky and had a closer draw 16 than this thing would be a wrap ....
He is so quick out of the gate though that even if he draws the 1 hole he should have a clear lead just a few strides out of the gate .
Big works to watch tomorrow and Sunday. Dortmund and AP for the Baffert Brigade...looking forward to seeing how they move and and work. My guess is we will see one of these stamp themselves, after tomorrow, as the prohibitive favorite.
My sources tell me that AP is walking around CD like he owns the place.
early foals....When I play 2 year olds or 3 year old races, I always put long shot earls foals into the mix. About 6 weeks back, Aqua had a race which paid 78,000 super, top 3 finishers all long shots, all 4 year old msw going against 3 year old msw. Winner was a 4 year old MCL stepping up to MSW after a layoff. Jan foal is more developed mentally and physically than a April or May foal when it comes to 2 year old races. May foal finishes 2nd first time out , always a toss out for me next time out, if it is going out as the fav. Tapiture -a May foal which developed later.
Big works to watch tomorrow and Sunday. Dortmund and AP for the Baffert Brigade...looking forward to seeing how they move and and work. My guess is we will see one of these stamp themselves, after tomorrow, as the prohibitive favorite.
My sources tell me that AP is walking around CD like he owns the place.
Comments
All the decent horses in the race probably think they have a legit shot so they won't do anything stupid and try to push AP hard in the front and sacrifice there chances. They will just hope AP can't get the distance ....
You might have some cheap speed like Stanford or Ocho go early but that will just be a target for AP ...
I'm with Sky on this one. Ocho, Sanford and American Pharoh will be my senerio for the pace setters. With Dortmund, Firing Line, Carpe Diem, Mubtaahij etc. Right behind them, waiting to pounce. The exact will pay good even with American Pharoh on Top....
This is on a no trouble break of course.
I guess I need to clarify myself ... I think the most likely scenario is that he goes to the lead.... He is the fastest horse and gets into stride so easily early on and Baffert is the type of guy that will let his horses show speed if they have speed. It's possible that either a horse like Ocho or Stanford could just quarter horse it and AP ends up sitting second or less likely but still possible that multiple horses quarter horse and AP is sitting third , but I think the far most likely scenario is he goes to the lead ....
Secondly I don't see where you get him sitting mid pack from ... Do you really believe six other horses have shown to be faster early and better gate horses them him ? Why would Baffert have Victor take him back my mid pack ? That would not only be asking for traffic issues but also be taking AP out of his comfort zone ... I have heard many expert analysts give there two cents on the race and some I agree with and some I don't, but I have not heard one of them say they expect AP to be mid pack in the race .... I am not saying your wrong. I am just pointing out your mid pack theory for AP is one that to the best of my knowledge is shared by you and only you ... ( I am not counting your buddies on the forum here that will undoubtly rush to your rescue claiming AP will be mid pack )
As far as you saying that I think AP will be on the rail if he has to sit behind horses .... I re read my post again and I didn't see where I ever mentioned the rail. That would be foolish of me to say that because that depends on what post he draws. If he draws post 1 and somebody quarter horses it than he might get stuck rating on the rail but if he draws post 20 than he would most likely be sitting right outside of any cheap speed. I don't have my crystal ball with me to tell where he will draw so maybe I can borrow yours ?
Although I will say this even if he draws inside and there is cheap speed than I would still guess that Victor would do like he did with Chrome and use AP natural speed to make his own luck and guide the horse right outside any cheap speed. Of course if AP does go to the lead which is most likely that I am sure he will be put on the rail since that's the shortest way around the track unless of course the inside of the track is playing bad but that's usually not the case at Churchill even when it rains ...
You said you think AP will be shitting the bed in the stretch and your leaving him off all your tickets . Don't get me wrong horse racing is a pari mutuel game so the more tickets you leave AP off of that's just more money in my pocket. I hope you can convince every bettor that AP is going to be shitting the bed down the stretch and won't hit the board . I honestly mean that , but just out of curiousity which one of his previous races led you to the conclusion he can't get the distance ? Which one of his previous races led you to believe he does not have the early speed to be sitting anything other than mid pack ? What could he have done in any of his previous races to be more impressive ? Or is it just a hunch or feeling that you have ? Or are you just one of those type of guys that like to hate on horses like California Chrome and AP come derby time just because .... Or are you one of the guys comparing the UAE derby horse to Secretariat ?
Anyways I hope you continue to preach on and convert many people over to the leave off AP on all your tickets bandwagon. I got a 60 inch 4k that I have my eye on that would look great on my wall
Lol. Ur a retard.
If he does leave American Pharoah off all his tickets than the only person or horse that is going to be shitting himself come stretch time is him
Regards...
Again this was before the performance he put on in the Arkansas Derby .... Just a nugget I found .
that is just a crazy stat..that percentage is almost what carpe cost....I think the florida derby was an extremely tough race cause of that track. and I dont have materiality or upstart bouncing back..
Hard to say anything bad about AP, but when his jockey of is being interviewed on the local news a week before the horse starts as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby, what is he going to say about him? Bad stuff? Of course he's going to heap superlatives on the horse (many or all of which may be deserved, but you see my point).
Bad enough by itself, but even worse when you consider how many favorites that guy is starting...
Zito may get a little closer to the gate if any defections come up in the next week. He really wants Frammento to get in! TAP knows he only has two contenders, CD and Materiality. His meeting yesterday at Keeneland with Winstar principals Troutt and Walden kind of says it all, not to mention JV and JC getting early calls. Friday and Saturday weather in Louisville looks bad, and you never know who will come back to the barn a little off, but every year somebody does?
Zito getting closer!
I was looking over the PP''a today and I noticed Oxho in his 6 or so lifetime races he has only gone to the lead once and that was in the Bluegrass where he drew the rail and there was no other pace in the race so he basically just got the lead by default ...
I myself have been just as guilty as others saying that Ocho was the likely pacesetter if AP didn't go, but really on further review Dortmund, Materiality and Upstart just off the top of my head have shown more speed early than Oxho, although when really looking hard at it if AP gets any kind of a decent post Position it's hard to not see him get the lead unless one of the trainers is willing to sacrifice his horses chances to outgun AP early which I doubt because of the illusion it's a wide open race ...
He is so quick out of the gate though that even if he draws the 1 hole he should have a clear lead just a few strides out of the gate .
To much of a crap shoot boxing these 3: El Kabier, Frosted n Firing Line
Big works to watch tomorrow and Sunday. Dortmund and AP for the Baffert Brigade...looking forward to seeing how they move and and work. My guess is we will see one of these stamp themselves, after tomorrow, as the prohibitive favorite.
My sources tell me that AP is walking around CD like he owns the place.
First Foal
El Kabeir
3/18/2012
Firing Line
1/19/2012
Keen Ice
3/25/2012
2nd Foal
American Pharoah
2/2/2012
War Story
3/25/2012
3rd Foal
Far Right
03/4/2012
Itsaknockout
3/16/2012
Stanford
3/28/2012
Upstart
4/13/2012
4th Foal
Bolo
2/19/2012
5th Foal
Frosted
*4/18/2012
Ocho Ocho Ocho
4/2/2012
6th Foal
Carpe Diem
*2/29/2012
Danzig Moon
3/24/2012
Dortmund
2/7/2012
Materiality
4/19/2012
7+ Foal
International Star
*3/14/2012
Mubtaahij
*4/28/2012
Mr. Z
*1/12/2012
Tencendur
3/9/2012
*
*
*
*
*
*