"It was an ideal work," said Callaghan, who wanted Firing Line to sit off his company, which he did. This is a colt who is far more cooperative than he was months ago.
I have noticed Danzig Moon picking up a lot of steam when I read various forums, so I know your not alone on being high on DM, but personally I just don't see it ...
The horse took 3 tries to break the Maiden against really ordinary looking fields and than got trounced in the Tampa Bay Derby with no excuses. Granted he than came back to run second in the Blue Grass, but it was a fairly well beaten second. DM was under urging and Carpe Diem was not being asked and DM was still not really making up any ground, and the only other noteworthy horse in the race was Ocho Ocho Oxho who just got done being drilled by Dortmund by 15 lengths.
I wish everybody good luck, but there just seems to be several other horses in the race with better credentials ....
Here is the reason DM ran so bad in the Tampa Bay Derby. I hope this colt don't kill your super in the 4th hole in 13 days.
From Mark Casse:
Two days after the Tampa Derby he started to lay down in his stall and did so for several days and was very listless walking the shed, which for a good-feeling horse like him is a major warning sign. They pulled blood on him and his white blood count was way out of whack, indicating he had been fighting off a viral infection at Tampa. That forced him to miss the Florida Derby, and as Casse said, when you get your butt whipped the way he did at Tampa, you normally wouldnt come back in the Blue Grass against the horse that whipped you. But they felt confident that wasnt the real Danzig Moon and they were proven right.
Here is the reason DM ran so bad in the Tampa Bay Derby. I hope this colt don't kill your super in the 4th hole in 13 days.
From Mark Casse:
Two days after the Tampa Derby he started to lay down in his stall and did so for several days and was very listless walking the shed, which for a good-feeling horse like him is a major warning sign. They pulled blood on him and his white blood count was way out of whack, indicating he had been fighting off a viral infection at Tampa. That forced him to miss the Florida Derby, and as Casse said, when you get your butt whipped the way he did at Tampa, you normally wouldnt come back in the Blue Grass against the horse that whipped you. But they felt confident that wasnt the real Danzig Moon and they were proven right.
I hope DM does not ruin my super either LOL ....
Don't get me wrong I am not saying DM is a nag . It's just with my derby budget being around $300 for my super ticket I have to take a stand somewhere and for me it's going to be against DM and the horse shipping in from the UAE derby ...
For me I have Carpe Diem ranked #6 on my derby list behind AP, Dort, Materiality, Firing Line and International Star , so clunking up 3 lengths behind a dialed down Carpe Diem does not land you on my Super ticket , but I have been wrong MANY times before , so it would not shock me to see DM make the super. In fact if my budget was a few hundred dollars more than I probably would be including him ...
I will most likely be using Far Right in the 3rd and 4th slots and it is actually a pretty close call between Far Right and DM for me , but the consistency Far Right has shown plus the benefit of having Mike Smith aboard was what gave him the edge over DM for me ...
Although nothing is set in stone for me at this point . Once I see post position draw and final workouts than things could change, if DM just turns everyone's head in his final work and Far Right doesn't look on top of his game after his work and/or Far Right draws the 1 or 20 hole than I might take a second look at DM, because even though I am not using him now he was one of the very last horses I left out ...
The UAE derby shipper is another story ... I don't care how he looks in his work or what post he draws that is just going to be one horse that is going to have to beat me. No UAE runner has ever made the super before at Churchill, and I don't see him as the horse that's going to break the trend ....
I can tell from your posts that you take the game serious and put a lot of work into it , so I hope we both get lucky on derby day !!!!
Good luck on your Super.
As for me International Star is out of my 4spots. The way he had to take a beat down to beat Stafford, he's scratched from my Supers. I,'ve decided that after I put in my Supers I will put one in with Danzig Moon on Top with American Pharoh,Dortmund, Carpe Diem,Mubtaahij and Firing Line behind him, as a cover.
Remembering Mine That Bird......
Mike Smith not riding Far Right, will be riding a Pletcher horse, is what I have read and been told.
If Mike Smith is off Far Right that drops my opinion of him some but not sure if it is a negative enough to drop him all the way from Super. Maybe I'll just use him in the 4 spot instead of the 3 and 4 slot ....
Good luck on your Super.
As for me International Star is out of my 4spots. The way he had to take a beat down to beat Stafford, he's scratched from my Supers. I,'ve decided that after I put in my Supers I will put one in with Danzig Moon on Top with American Pharoh,Dortmund, Carpe Diem,Mubtaahij and Firing Line behind him, as a cover.
Remembering Mine That Bird......
That's a valid point about how much effort it took for him to beat Stanford, but I think you do have to take into account what a easy lead Stanford got away with ....
Good luck on your Super.
As for me International Star is out of my 4spots. The way he had to take a beat down to beat Stafford, he's scratched from my Supers. I,'ve decided that after I put in my Supers I will put one in with Danzig Moon on Top with American Pharoh,Dortmund, Carpe Diem,Mubtaahij and Firing Line behind him, as a cover.
Remembering Mine That Bird......
your crazy if you drop international star out of the top 4..horse has done nothing but prove hes the real deal...what I dont understand is how mubtaahij is in there. horse basically won a alw race in dubai..IMO international star is a horse who will get an ideal setup with all this pace..Im not a big fan of the connects but that horse knows how to win.
If Mike Smith is off Far Right that drops my opinion of him some but not sure if it is a negative enough to drop him all the way from Super. Maybe I'll just use him in the 4 spot instead of the 3 and 4 slot ....
I just got this text, Jr committed to Carpe and TAP gave JJ the mount over Mike Smith. Now Mike Smith has committed to Far Right. Also Stanford might not run as of now, he was to show a much better work this coming Saturday at CH to get in the gate per TAP!!
I just got this text, Jr committed to Carpe and TAP gave JJ the mount over Mike Smith. Now Mike Smith has committed to Far Right. Also Stanford might not run as of now, he was to show a much better work this coming Saturday at CH to get in the gate per TAP!!
thats crazy to me..mike is the best money rider in the game...
your crazy if you drop international star out of the top 4..horse has done nothing but prove hes the real deal...what I dont understand is how mubtaahij is in there. horse basically won a alw race in dubai..IMO international star is a horse who will get an ideal setup with all this pace..Im not a big fan of the connects but that horse knows how to win.
I could not agree with you more on both points you made ....
International Star has done nothing but win this prep season, and he has shown a pretty good turn of foot doing it, and he did not get good trips either. If it's a hot pace early and things set up for a closer than he has got to be at the top of list. If you compare the resumes of DM and International Star it's no comparison. International Star did not put together the most derby qualifying points of any horse by accident ... He is legit. Do I think he wins ... Probably not because I think AP is a super horse, but leaving International Star out of the super is just asking for trouble ....
I also really agree with you on Mubtaahij ... I can't see why he is getting so hyped up by so many people on the various forums. The field he beat in the UAE derby was very weak. I don't claim to be a expert on Dubai racing and that's why I researched articles from the foreign press who do follow the Dubai racing scene and the general consensus was that he beat a very lackluster field. Add to that the obvious obstacles like the travel and new surroundings and new food etc. and the fact no horse has ever hit the super coming from the UAE derby and the horse looks like a easy toss out , yet the guys on Pace Advantage are going crazy over this horse. They are saying that this horse deserves to go off 3rd choice right behind AP and Dortmund. There mock morning line had Materiality at 12-1 and Firing Line at 15-1 and International Star at 25-1 and Mubtaahij at 5-1 !!!!
They even went so far as to call him the greatest 3 year old on the planet and compared him to Secretariat .... I just can't figure it out lol
This is simple.... Can you see International Star beating Carpe Diem, NO.
Can you see him beating Dortmund, NO.
Can you see him beating American Pharoh, NO.
Can you see him beating Firing Line, NO.
Can you see him beating Mubtaahij, NO.
Can you see him beating Materiality, NO.
After that beat down to beat Stanford, I don't see it. If anything, he'll probably regress off of that one. That is not a kind of race I would like my horse to have before The Derby......
Guys Materiality only Crushed Stanford in The Florida Derby. I mean absolutely crush him in a 1:48 and change.
International Star only beat him by a head and in 1:50 and change. In my handicapping book, that's 10 lengths behind Materiality.
Of the guys I mentioned above he's my weak link, only because the other guys are more seasoned. So with that said good luck to you guys who puts in International Star in their Supers.
I just don't see it.....
I like to say, I've with you guys for years now and love it. This is the best Horse Racing Forum Site on the Planet......
I think it's time for a spirited discussion lol ...
With all due respect I disagree with so much of what you said I have really no idea where to begin and I can't possibly fit it all into one post , so I'll just start with the most obvious mistake you made ...
If you really want to play the game of Horse A did this to Horse B and Horse C did this to Horse B and than use that to make a black and white statement without factoring anything else into the equation than I can do the same thing ...
International Star beat Mr Z by over 20 lengths in the LA derby ... Dortmund beat MrZ by a neck and AP beat MrZ by about 8 lengths and Carpe Diem beat him by about 6 lengths ....
So I guess according to your "handicapping book " than International Star is 20 lengths better than Dortmund and 14 lengths better than Carpe Diem and 12 lengths better than AP.
I know that's obviously not the case but it's exactly the same as you saying Materiality did this to Standord and International only did this to Standord and therefore Materiality is 10 lengths better ...
Next up my take on your obvious disbelief and bewilderment on how anybody could think a horse that is 3 for 3 in their 3 year old campaign including wins in the LeComte, Risen Star , LA Derby could ever beat a horse who's main claim to fame is beating a allowance quality field in Dubai ...
Next up my take on your obvious disbelief and bewilderment on how anybody could think a horse that is 3 for 3 in their 3 year old campaign including wins in the LeComte, Risen Star , LA Derby could ever beat a horse who's main claim to fame is beating a allowance quality field in Dubai ...
Ever hear of a horse named Pyro....?
Let the man have his opinion. Do I agree with the logic used to come to the conclusions? No, but I as well have the same opinion. The UAE horse will be on all of my tickets while International Star won't.
If this was as easy as you make it seem, we'd all be millionaires here. The reason you were compared to Draynay resulted from your failure to respect the opinions of others. Sometimes half of the fun of the game is the fun amongst friends of making fun of each other picks and analysis, but you should really get to know people first. You can learn an awful lot on this forum if you'd hang back and listen sometimes. I know, I speak from personal experience...
Let the man have his opinion. Do I agree with the logic used to come to the conclusions? No, but I as well have the same opinion. The UAE horse will be on all of my tickets while International Star won't.
If this was as easy as you make it seem, we'd all be millionaires here. The reason you were compared to Draynay resulted from your failure to respect the opinions of others. Sometimes half of the fun of the game is the fun amongst friends of making fun of each other picks and analysis, but you should really get to know people first. You can learn an awful lot on this forum if you'd hang back and listen sometimes. I know, I speak from personal experience...
Ok for starters there is a difference between not respecting someone's opinion and disagreeing with someone's opinion. My post stating I thought he was wrong was no more disrespectful or confrontational than his post that kicked things off when he disagreed with me, and I am not saying he was disrespectful ... He disagreed with me and stated why and that's fine. I just simply responded saying I thought he was wrong and why ... I know people tend to have think skins on these online forums that's why I included " with all due respect in my post " ...
Secondly I was compared to dranay 3-4 days ago and I wrote this post a few hours ago, yet you say the reason I was compared to dranay was because of my inability to respect others opinions ..,. It's easy enough for anybody to review my entire posting history so I would love to see which one of my posts prior to being compared to dranay that you or anybody else found so offensive ..,
Honestly it seems like its you that is the one that has a hard time respecting anybody opinions .., I thought we were horseplayers bit a bunch of 3rd grade school girls that get all upset the second someone does not agree with them ..,,
Back to the horse racing .... I can see it now all the people jumping in the bandwagon of the UAE horse are going to immediatly afte the race start with the excuses how he had to travel and didn't have his normal feed or groom etc...
This is just a preemptive response ..., you all know right now beforehand that he had to travel and all the other issues before the race and your still saying how he is a must use and better than all these other horses, so after the fact don't use as a excuse what you already knew beforehand ....
Ok for starters there is a difference between not respecting someone's opinion and disagreeing with someone's opinion. My post stating I thought he was wrong was no more disrespectful or confrontational than his post that kicked things off when he disagreed with me, and I am not saying he was disrespectful ... He disagreed with me and stated why and that's fine. I just simply responded saying I thought he was wrong and why ... I know people tend to have think skins on these online forums that's why I included " with all due respect in my post " ...
Secondly I was compared to dranay 3-4 days ago and I wrote this post a few hours ago, yet you say the reason I was compared to dranay was because of my inability to respect others opinions ..,. It's easy enough for anybody to review my entire posting history so I would love to see which one of my posts prior to being compared to dranay that you or anybody else found so offensive ..,
Honestly it seems like its you that is the one that has a hard time respecting anybody opinions .., I thought we were horseplayers bit a bunch of 3rd grade school girls that get all upset the second someone does not agree with them ..,,
Back to the horse racing .... I can see it now all the people jumping in the bandwagon of the UAE horse are going to immediatly afte the race start with the excuses how he had to travel and didn't have his normal feed or groom etc...
This is just a preemptive response ..., you all know right now beforehand that he had to travel and all the other issues before the race and your still saying how he is a must use and better than all these other horses, so after the fact don't use as a excuse what you already knew beforehand ....
Defensiveness is the first sign of thin skin. My post was well intentioned, believe it or not. Just trying to tell you to dial it back instead of repeating/ranting. Let the race shake itself out. If you are right, then you can bust our balls :drinking:
For what its worth, we're both all in on AP, so we'll likely be celebrating or drowning our sorrows based on this alone.
On another note, this has to be the most difficult derby in years, especially with regards to exotics as a case can be made for nearly every single contender. Each year I take my stabs against several of the contenders in hopes to making the big loot. Depending on Dortmund's draw, he may not see a top 3 slot on my tickets with my hope that his giant size/stride will play against his chances due to traffic issues (if he draws inside the 5, he may be off my tickets completely as its either go to the front or bull in a china shop). International Star, Materiality, and Carpe Diem are the others I'm keeping off the top slots if not my ticket as a whole.
Looking for big runs from Firing Line, Muta, Frosted, and will be using Far Right/Frammento as two who can clunk their way up similar to why I loved Commanding Curve last year. Clearly my opinion can/will change based on works/draw, but right now that is my game plan.
Either way it should be a fantastic race and best of luck to all!
This is simple.... Can you see International Star beating Carpe Diem, NO.
Can you see him beating Dortmund, NO.
Can you see him beating American Pharoh, NO.
Can you see him beating Firing Line, NO.
Can you see him beating Mubtaahij, NO.
Can you see him beating Materiality, NO.
After that beat down to beat Stanford, I don't see it. If anything, he'll probably regress off of that one. That is not a kind of race I would like my horse to have before The Derby......
Guys Materiality only Crushed Stanford in The Florida Derby. I mean absolutely crush him in a 1:48 and change.
International Star only beat him by a head and in 1:50 and change. In my handicapping book, that's 10 lengths behind Materiality.
Of the guys I mentioned above he's my weak link, only because the other guys are more seasoned. So with that said good luck to you guys who puts in International Star in their Supers.
I just don't see it.....
I like to say, I've with you guys for years now and love it. This is the best Horse Racing Forum Site on the Planet......
my point is that he does not have to beat these horses in a match race..the derby is a different beast..trip is key and international star looks to sit a great trip. is he the most talented horse in the field..no but in the derby it doesnt matter..ask point given.
I agree International Star is going to sit a great trip. During his win streak in the LA preps his speed figure has improved with the added distance of each race. This horse is as honest and hard trying as they come and in my opinion he is going to be rolling in the lane and picking up the pieces. Is he the most talented horse ... Probably not, but again just in my opinion that honor belongs to AP and nobody else is even close, but factoring in the way International Star is flying under the radar and his low profile jock you are going to get a square price on a horse that has a better than 50% chance, again in my opinion to land somewhere in the superfecta ....
46% chance of rain derby day Dortmund has the biggest hooves giving him the snow shoe effect rest of the field with pencils for legs Dortmund will glide like Clyde do your rain Dance!
46% chance of rain derby day Dortmund has the biggest hooves giving him the snow shoe effect rest of the field with pencils for legs Dortmund will glide like Clyde do your rain Dance!
It was muddy in the Arkansas Derby and AP just glided over the track ... Did you see how he almost went to his knees at the start but he is so athletic he still easily got the lead and in fact you could not even tell he almost went down until the slowed down the replay and isolated on him ... Like Frank Miramonte says " this is one special horse " !!!
I have all the confidence in the world using AP as a single on top. I like Dort also been watching his replays over and over. That horse is all heart with a lot of talent mixed in. If Dort draws good I may use him as a single in the 2 spot really allowing me to spread in the 3 and 4 hole ...
International Star and Far Right at two must uses in the 3 and 4 hole and maybe in the 2 hole depending on how Dort does in the post position draw ..,
I wouldn't bet DM or the UAE horse to come in the super under any circumstances. Materiality is a nice horse for sure , but he has bounce written all over him. Probably will take a stand there against. I have a funny feeling upstart will turn the tables on him and probably should be used in the 3 or 4 holes,
Not really high on any of the New York horses including Frosted. Will probably leave them all out . I am glad Borel got the mount on El Kabeir . He should get really overbet ...
I keep trying to find a reason to knock Carpe Diem but I can't . He is solid and probably another must use in the 3-4 spot along with Firing Line ...
Possible super ticket ...
AP
Dortmund
Far Right, International Star, Carpe Diem, Firing Line, Upstart
Far Right, International Star, Carpe Diem, Firing Line, Upstart
That's only a $16 ticket . I could punch that ticket 20 times and still stay around my $300 budget.
I also think it's a huge sign that Johnny V picked Carpe Diem over Materiality. He probably knows more about racing than all of us combined and he knows those 2 horses better than anybody except for maybe Pletcher and he let the world know who he thinks is the better derby horse ....
A horse jumps up and runs such a big number in only his 3rd lifetime start that just has bounce all over it for his next start ..,
I also think it's a huge sign that Johnny V picked Carpe Diem over Materiality. He probably knows more about racing than all of us combined and he knows those 2 horses better than anybody except for maybe Pletcher and he let the world know who he thinks is the better derby horse ....
A horse jumps up and runs such a big number in only his 3rd lifetime start that just has bounce all over it for his next start ..,
On my personal #'s, Materiality actually regressed off his 2nd win. I could never back a horse with only 3 lifetime starts for the win in the Ky Derby. I'm very HIGH on Carpe, he has all the tools. His only negative for me is TAP!!! Here is one stat for the FORUM TAP's record at 9F races or longer at CH is 60-1-4-7 (1.7%)!!!
Comments
Somebody pat this guy down. Make sure it's not Draynay.
Lol I thought I seen Draynay ranting and raving over some horse for the Debry. Not sure where it was but isn't wasn't any of those horses
Here is the reason DM ran so bad in the Tampa Bay Derby. I hope this colt don't kill your super in the 4th hole in 13 days.
From Mark Casse:
Two days after the Tampa Derby he started to lay down in his stall and did so for several days and was very listless walking the shed, which for a good-feeling horse like him is a major warning sign. They pulled blood on him and his white blood count was way out of whack, indicating he had been fighting off a viral infection at Tampa. That forced him to miss the Florida Derby, and as Casse said, when you get your butt whipped the way he did at Tampa, you normally wouldnt come back in the Blue Grass against the horse that whipped you. But they felt confident that wasnt the real Danzig Moon and they were proven right.
Don't get me wrong I am not saying DM is a nag . It's just with my derby budget being around $300 for my super ticket I have to take a stand somewhere and for me it's going to be against DM and the horse shipping in from the UAE derby ...
For me I have Carpe Diem ranked #6 on my derby list behind AP, Dort, Materiality, Firing Line and International Star , so clunking up 3 lengths behind a dialed down Carpe Diem does not land you on my Super ticket , but I have been wrong MANY times before , so it would not shock me to see DM make the super. In fact if my budget was a few hundred dollars more than I probably would be including him ...
I will most likely be using Far Right in the 3rd and 4th slots and it is actually a pretty close call between Far Right and DM for me , but the consistency Far Right has shown plus the benefit of having Mike Smith aboard was what gave him the edge over DM for me ...
Although nothing is set in stone for me at this point . Once I see post position draw and final workouts than things could change, if DM just turns everyone's head in his final work and Far Right doesn't look on top of his game after his work and/or Far Right draws the 1 or 20 hole than I might take a second look at DM, because even though I am not using him now he was one of the very last horses I left out ...
The UAE derby shipper is another story ... I don't care how he looks in his work or what post he draws that is just going to be one horse that is going to have to beat me. No UAE runner has ever made the super before at Churchill, and I don't see him as the horse that's going to break the trend ....
I can tell from your posts that you take the game serious and put a lot of work into it , so I hope we both get lucky on derby day !!!!
As for me International Star is out of my 4spots. The way he had to take a beat down to beat Stafford, he's scratched from my Supers. I,'ve decided that after I put in my Supers I will put one in with Danzig Moon on Top with American Pharoh,Dortmund, Carpe Diem,Mubtaahij and Firing Line behind him, as a cover.
Remembering Mine That Bird......
your crazy if you drop international star out of the top 4..horse has done nothing but prove hes the real deal...what I dont understand is how mubtaahij is in there. horse basically won a alw race in dubai..IMO international star is a horse who will get an ideal setup with all this pace..Im not a big fan of the connects but that horse knows how to win.
I just got this text, Jr committed to Carpe and TAP gave JJ the mount over Mike Smith. Now Mike Smith has committed to Far Right. Also Stanford might not run as of now, he was to show a much better work this coming Saturday at CH to get in the gate per TAP!!
thats crazy to me..mike is the best money rider in the game...
agree
International Star has done nothing but win this prep season, and he has shown a pretty good turn of foot doing it, and he did not get good trips either. If it's a hot pace early and things set up for a closer than he has got to be at the top of list. If you compare the resumes of DM and International Star it's no comparison. International Star did not put together the most derby qualifying points of any horse by accident ... He is legit. Do I think he wins ... Probably not because I think AP is a super horse, but leaving International Star out of the super is just asking for trouble ....
I also really agree with you on Mubtaahij ... I can't see why he is getting so hyped up by so many people on the various forums. The field he beat in the UAE derby was very weak. I don't claim to be a expert on Dubai racing and that's why I researched articles from the foreign press who do follow the Dubai racing scene and the general consensus was that he beat a very lackluster field. Add to that the obvious obstacles like the travel and new surroundings and new food etc. and the fact no horse has ever hit the super coming from the UAE derby and the horse looks like a easy toss out , yet the guys on Pace Advantage are going crazy over this horse. They are saying that this horse deserves to go off 3rd choice right behind AP and Dortmund. There mock morning line had Materiality at 12-1 and Firing Line at 15-1 and International Star at 25-1 and Mubtaahij at 5-1 !!!!
They even went so far as to call him the greatest 3 year old on the planet and compared him to Secretariat .... I just can't figure it out lol
Can you see him beating Dortmund, NO.
Can you see him beating American Pharoh, NO.
Can you see him beating Firing Line, NO.
Can you see him beating Mubtaahij, NO.
Can you see him beating Materiality, NO.
After that beat down to beat Stanford, I don't see it. If anything, he'll probably regress off of that one. That is not a kind of race I would like my horse to have before The Derby......
Guys Materiality only Crushed Stanford in The Florida Derby. I mean absolutely crush him in a 1:48 and change.
International Star only beat him by a head and in 1:50 and change. In my handicapping book, that's 10 lengths behind Materiality.
Of the guys I mentioned above he's my weak link, only because the other guys are more seasoned. So with that said good luck to you guys who puts in International Star in their Supers.
I just don't see it.....
I like to say, I've with you guys for years now and love it. This is the best Horse Racing Forum Site on the Planet......
With all due respect I disagree with so much of what you said I have really no idea where to begin and I can't possibly fit it all into one post , so I'll just start with the most obvious mistake you made ...
If you really want to play the game of Horse A did this to Horse B and Horse C did this to Horse B and than use that to make a black and white statement without factoring anything else into the equation than I can do the same thing ...
International Star beat Mr Z by over 20 lengths in the LA derby ... Dortmund beat MrZ by a neck and AP beat MrZ by about 8 lengths and Carpe Diem beat him by about 6 lengths ....
So I guess according to your "handicapping book " than International Star is 20 lengths better than Dortmund and 14 lengths better than Carpe Diem and 12 lengths better than AP.
I know that's obviously not the case but it's exactly the same as you saying Materiality did this to Standord and International only did this to Standord and therefore Materiality is 10 lengths better ...
Next up my take on your obvious disbelief and bewilderment on how anybody could think a horse that is 3 for 3 in their 3 year old campaign including wins in the LeComte, Risen Star , LA Derby could ever beat a horse who's main claim to fame is beating a allowance quality field in Dubai ...
Ever hear of a horse named Pyro....?
Let the man have his opinion. Do I agree with the logic used to come to the conclusions? No, but I as well have the same opinion. The UAE horse will be on all of my tickets while International Star won't.
If this was as easy as you make it seem, we'd all be millionaires here. The reason you were compared to Draynay resulted from your failure to respect the opinions of others. Sometimes half of the fun of the game is the fun amongst friends of making fun of each other picks and analysis, but you should really get to know people first. You can learn an awful lot on this forum if you'd hang back and listen sometimes. I know, I speak from personal experience...
Secondly I was compared to dranay 3-4 days ago and I wrote this post a few hours ago, yet you say the reason I was compared to dranay was because of my inability to respect others opinions ..,. It's easy enough for anybody to review my entire posting history so I would love to see which one of my posts prior to being compared to dranay that you or anybody else found so offensive ..,
Honestly it seems like its you that is the one that has a hard time respecting anybody opinions .., I thought we were horseplayers bit a bunch of 3rd grade school girls that get all upset the second someone does not agree with them ..,,
Back to the horse racing .... I can see it now all the people jumping in the bandwagon of the UAE horse are going to immediatly afte the race start with the excuses how he had to travel and didn't have his normal feed or groom etc...
This is just a preemptive response ..., you all know right now beforehand that he had to travel and all the other issues before the race and your still saying how he is a must use and better than all these other horses, so after the fact don't use as a excuse what you already knew beforehand ....
Defensiveness is the first sign of thin skin. My post was well intentioned, believe it or not. Just trying to tell you to dial it back instead of repeating/ranting. Let the race shake itself out. If you are right, then you can bust our balls :drinking:
For what its worth, we're both all in on AP, so we'll likely be celebrating or drowning our sorrows based on this alone.
On another note, this has to be the most difficult derby in years, especially with regards to exotics as a case can be made for nearly every single contender. Each year I take my stabs against several of the contenders in hopes to making the big loot. Depending on Dortmund's draw, he may not see a top 3 slot on my tickets with my hope that his giant size/stride will play against his chances due to traffic issues (if he draws inside the 5, he may be off my tickets completely as its either go to the front or bull in a china shop). International Star, Materiality, and Carpe Diem are the others I'm keeping off the top slots if not my ticket as a whole.
Looking for big runs from Firing Line, Muta, Frosted, and will be using Far Right/Frammento as two who can clunk their way up similar to why I loved Commanding Curve last year. Clearly my opinion can/will change based on works/draw, but right now that is my game plan.
Either way it should be a fantastic race and best of luck to all!
my point is that he does not have to beat these horses in a match race..the derby is a different beast..trip is key and international star looks to sit a great trip. is he the most talented horse in the field..no but in the derby it doesnt matter..ask point given.
Did AP skip in the slop at Hot Springs??
I have all the confidence in the world using AP as a single on top. I like Dort also been watching his replays over and over. That horse is all heart with a lot of talent mixed in. If Dort draws good I may use him as a single in the 2 spot really allowing me to spread in the 3 and 4 hole ...
International Star and Far Right at two must uses in the 3 and 4 hole and maybe in the 2 hole depending on how Dort does in the post position draw ..,
I wouldn't bet DM or the UAE horse to come in the super under any circumstances. Materiality is a nice horse for sure , but he has bounce written all over him. Probably will take a stand there against. I have a funny feeling upstart will turn the tables on him and probably should be used in the 3 or 4 holes,
Not really high on any of the New York horses including Frosted. Will probably leave them all out . I am glad Borel got the mount on El Kabeir . He should get really overbet ...
I keep trying to find a reason to knock Carpe Diem but I can't . He is solid and probably another must use in the 3-4 spot along with Firing Line ...
Possible super ticket ...
AP
Dortmund
Far Right, International Star, Carpe Diem, Firing Line, Upstart
Far Right, International Star, Carpe Diem, Firing Line, Upstart
That's only a $16 ticket . I could punch that ticket 20 times and still stay around my $300 budget.
Thoughts ?
I meant the Rebel Stakes, not Arkansas Derby.
A horse jumps up and runs such a big number in only his 3rd lifetime start that just has bounce all over it for his next start ..,
On my personal #'s, Materiality actually regressed off his 2nd win. I could never back a horse with only 3 lifetime starts for the win in the Ky Derby. I'm very HIGH on Carpe, he has all the tools. His only negative for me is TAP!!! Here is one stat for the FORUM TAP's record at 9F races or longer at CH is 60-1-4-7 (1.7%)!!!