Firing Line Stretch Run
fbwinners
Senior Member
No one has stated this but Firing Line was on his wrong lead the entire stretch, if he would of changed leads he might of held on! If they both get in the gate in two weeks, it will be one hell of a stretch battle at Old HIlltop!!
Comments
Your forgetting the incredibly difficult task Firing Line had of putting away Dortmund.
you've made a few really good points, but most of the time it's these weird defensive rants....
Nobody was even talking about AP in here.
Secondly just the idea that a hall of fame jockey with so much experience like Gary Stevens could not get a quality animal like Firing Line to change back to his correct lead the entire long stretch of Churchill downs seemed kinda odd to me, so I re watched the race and it sure looked like to me he was on his correct lead and I google all the post race interviews from Gary Stevens and I could not find anywhere where he mentioned the horse being on his wrong lead the entire stretch, so maybe the reason nobody is talking about it is because it never happened ...
As far as dirty shirt goes ... He is just always trying to bust my balls and this time he made a statement that any 3rd grader could see was incorrect. Of course you brought up AP he was the main point of the original post
I don't doubt you bet AP. I was just commenting specifically to the wrong lead issue .... We can agree to disagree
Agree 100%. I noticed the same thing when i watched the replay on Saturday Night. Pretty brutal. I would've won $17,000 on Firing Line future bets if he held on.
Now, in the Preakness we have to throw in the scenario involving Competitive Edge and Divining Rod.
Two more horses that have pretty much the same style, of running, as the top 3 in the Derby.
That's brutal, as I stated and will post my tickets I had 1K on AP to win. But I told my wife after the race, if Firing Line switched leads I lose! He might of not switched leads because of tiring in the stretch as well. We'll never know and I'm glad AP got their for me as I singled him in my last leg of the pk 5 that cashed also. But as I started the thread, he didn't switch leads down the stretch and someone needs to realize they cannot see a lead change or running on a wrong lead after all the replays they watch.
Actually I take that back. I did find one person write about this online. It was on the other forum pace advantage. Some guy who posts there basically said the same thing about not changing leads. I think it was the same guy who used his top secret formula that calculated Muubtahij ran a 137 beyer in the UAE derby or maybe it's just the screen name that FB Winners uses on that forum
FB stated his opinion and than I stated mine.
FB decided to give me a not so good natured jab about needing to learn how to watch race replays and instead of crying about it or responding with my own not so good natured jab I decided to give him a good natured jab, so really I think I was the bigger man and in fact before he gave me his not so good natured jab I told him we could agree to disagree , so really I was the bigger man not once but twice. Now if you want to actually read the posts you will see what I am talking about.
You sound like dirty shirt when he said I was "defensive " because I told FB that AP won the race fair and square and dirty shirt said that I should not even bring up AP because FB never brought him up even though FB's actual statement was that Firing Line should have beat AP except he didn't change leads. I am not a PHD I'll admit but I think that qualifies as bringing up AP.
I don't know if you guys just like to attack me so you don't even bother to read the posts or if it's just that you two don't have a real good grasp of reading and therefore can't understand the posts or if you two just have man crushes on FB but before you start crying about me being mean to you let me just remind you that you called me a b••tch in your last post so I think that sorta green lights me to speak my mind ....
Than in the official racing chart they mentioned Frosted went wide so he probably should have beat AP also . I bet if you guys get creative enough you can have AP all the way down to a 16th place finish in the derby by the end of the night lol
1. Was just to tired to change over down the lane.
2. Quote from Firing Line Trainer! I thought this was interesting!
But he still demands special care. Twice in the past month – on Feb. 27 and March 9 – Firing Line has undergone shock-wave therapy, which can be used to treat soft-tissue and bone ailments. Callaghan said it was done on Firing Line “to cover all the bases.”
Aided by great local weather and positive publicity about the talent and depth in the 2015 class of sophomore equines, records for both attendance and handle were shattered.
But in the final analysis, God bless the Thoroughbred.
At the end, four of the most accomplished horses in Kentucky Derby 141 finished ahead of 14 rivals, half of them having some kind of good chance.
And American Pharoah is for real. If he stays healthy, not a given, his talents may be unreal, in a positive sense. He has the brilliance to be in every race. Now we know hes got guts, too.
As discussed here post-Oaks, the Churchill surface was reminiscent of two things to me. If acted more like Churchill in the fall than the traditional Churchill of spring.
For two of the biggest days of racing in America, the track was speed favoring. You could close successfully but you needed a hot, almost suicidal, pace to come from the clouds, but it worked much better if you were able to save ground.
The outside was deeper; one could see that on the screen. To me it was evocative of Gulfstream Park on Florida Derby day; at once speed favoring and punishing.
The track surface is what made Frosteds effort so outstanding, finishing the strongest of all at the line. Yes, Materiality finished very well despite trouble at the start and his inexperience. He wasnt as close to the top three as Frosted, but did well to finish 7-3/4 lengths behind the winner.
One could pick apart trips and there were some obvious incidents, especially approaching the first turn, but well concentrate on those up front, in a manner that much of the other competition didnt.
And you didnt have to watch races develop all weekend to know that the track favored speed; you know it because how often to you see a three-speed number in the feature race on Mays first Saturday.
Meanwhile, the riders in this three-speed affair were brilliant. Martin Garcia was able to cojole a half in 47.34. All three managed to steal off with the first three prizes by throwing a third quarter of 23.95 at the group, separating themselves from 15 rivals approaching the far turn.
Gary Stevens rode a great race, no real surprise there, despite being forced to race between a 17-hands rock and a brilliant hard place. He had to keep Dortmund honest while glancing over his shoulder, needing to time a winning move perfectly.
And Derby-repeating Victor Espinoza was brilliant, too. Maybe any rider can get American Pharoah to relax, but theres no doubt Espinoza can--they really make a good team out there.
Not only that, but Espinoza timed his move perfectly, gaining momentum into the lane while not racing on the fastest part of the track, putting pressure on Stevens, who doubtlessly would have preferred to wait a few more jumps before going after Dortmund in earnest.
Firing Line will be the trip horse two weeks from now in Baltimore. He did the dirty work, as the handicappers say, and was re-rallying at the winner, looking for an instant like a possible resurgent winner with a sixteenth of a mile to go.
But this very good colt never was able to change over to his correct, right lead despite Stevens insistence. Of course, young horses learn from race to race.
So unless Firing Lines the second coming of Alydar, hell probably get the hang of switching over racing into, or through, the lane.
But the day belonged to American Pharoah and to the Zayats, who definitely had a Derby trophy with their name on it after coming close thrice. Its a good thing when supporters of the game are rewarded, whatever the politics of any situation.
American Pharoah had something to prove yesterday and he removed any doubt as to his superior class and brilliance. How superior, and how classy he is in a historical context is the only question left to answer.
That, and whether the plate he wears on his left fore to protect his frog eventually catches up with him. Hopefully, its something that he will continue to deal with in the future.
There was talk Sunday morning that the top three finishers will do it again in two weeks, and thats been a long time coming. Baltimore--even as insignificant as the Preakness is in the citys big picture, certainly could use a boost, too.
Along with the usual array of new shooters, Mark Casse, whose horses ran great all weekend, said he would look at the Preakness. Frosted is most likely to await the Belmont but this is racing, and things change.
Whether anyone is talking about it or not, it really doesn't matter. I know what i saw.
And it's not some "huge incident", it's just one of those things that happens sometime during a race. It does have the potential to affect an outcome, however, and i suspect that may be what happened here (impossible to say for sure).
Btw, i realize you're new around here, but i think you should heed what many observers have pointed out. You need to tone it down a bit. I appreciate your enthusiasm (i had it myself when i was new to horseracing), but you have a lot to learn, and without boasting i would say that this is probably one of the better places to do it. A lot of sharp, long-time horseplayers here that can shorten your learning curve tremendously (if you pay attention, that is). None of us are perfect, but at least we have some experience (which you definitely don't).
Personally, i wanted to ask this one question of you before the Derby (when you were looking for advice on how to structure your wagers):
"If you like AP so much, then why not just bet your $300 to win?"
If you had, then you'd be sitting with nearly $900 profit, instead of a $300 loss. But i realize that most people prefer exotic wagers, and i don't like to tell people how to bet (it's a personal decision), so i kept my mouth shut. To me it was obvious, though.
No disrespect to you Risky, but I stated the horse didn't switch leads and said it might of been a different outcome. I personally BET AP and was sweating out the stretch duel. I have never come on here to BOAST, I'm here to pass along solid information to help others out. Anyone that knows me personally or has exchanged emails with me, can VOUCH for me. I was taught how to spot lead changes from Larry Jones when he had Hard Spun at The Fairgrounds. I have picked many trainers BRAIN numerous times. I sit by Brett Calhoun every Saturday during the Fairgrounds meet. I've learned more information about the body of a horse than I thought I would ever know.
GL, FB
Shoot me an email at FBWinners@aol.com and I will give you the insight. I would join you, but I will be at Big Sandy that weekend.
Take Care...
"He was training like a bear all week."
"Going into the turn, I could see Martin was working on Dortmund a little, and I could hear Victor verbally encouraging his horse. We got by Dortmund in a matter in two or three strides. Why he didn't change leads I don't know, because he had never done that."
--"He's the first Derby horse I've ridden that he was still a fresh horse (after the race). The outrider had to help me pull him up."
--To draw outside the Baffert horses "would be a tactical advantage. It's always a tactical advantage to draw outside when you have a speed horse, and they're all speed horses."
--"There's no question where these horses are going to be early, it's just a matter of who's going to set the pace. If someone else sets the pace, we'll adapt."
--"My horse has been in three big battles now, and the question is how they've recovered. Believe me, I have a lot of respect. All three horses are very good, exceptional colts."
--"We didn't want Dortmund to have an easy lead. Looking back, I don't think we would have done anything differently."
--"If you draw outside, it gives you a few more options."
--Does the Preakness set up for Firing Line, being a shorter race? "Yes, I think it can be an absolutely perfect distance for him."
--You have commented Firing Line runs best fresh, citing the six weeks between each of his last three races. How will this two-week span between races affect him? "It's sooner than you would like. I think the spacing we've had should help us out."
--"He's been eating up, he's been very bright and giving us positive vibes. We think we have a chance to turn the tables, but it's tough, it's not going to be easy."
--Any thought about skipping the Preakness and waiting for the Belmont Stakes? "We felt that he's come out of (the Derby) very well."
--"The plan is not to breeze between now and the Preakness, just gallop and keep him happy."