I concur. The FL Derby is coming up weak in terms of entrants. I can't come up with more than 5 runners. Upstart should roll, but long term, how does a short field "harden" the colt? We shall see.
The LA Derby appears to warrant more entrants. I don't know the how the overall depth of the field will be, but perhaps with a bigger field, there will be some adversity those entered may have to overcome. As we all know, overcoming adversity is certainly a plus come the first Saturday in May.
The West Coast preps appear to be the deepest as far as talent. The San Felipe was a great prep and I expect the SA Derby to be the same. It appears the bench is much deeper out West. This group of colts should be battle tested, relative to the deep crop.
There is a long way to go yet, but at this point, the West controls things in my eyes.
My contenders in no order at this time, strictly off visual performances!! These runners below win races in the right manner to win on the 1st Saturday in May.
My top 5
1)AP
2) Dort
3) Prospect Park
4)Carpe
5) Upstart
I don't see anyone else getting the blanket of roses from those 5, if so it will be a Golden Soul or Commanding Curve type that gets a pace meltdown and passes all the tired ones. The big sleeper that will get some PRESS is Keen Ice, if he wins the La. Derby. He might go off the favorite next Saturday. The so called Wise Guys love this colt!! He reminds me of the two above that catch a piece plodding down the lane when everyone else is stopping!
I do, but I've been wrong before! Loved his comeback the other day.
Now, is he rushing it, no question but if he's as good as I think and came out of race with no issues and it sounds like he did, I could see him moving forward again.
He's nominated to the Bluegrass and BB already stated he's very possible for the SA Derby. We shall see.
I'm hearing Ocho is headed to Kee, for the BG. He's a sprinter to me, but he's had enough of California it would appear.
Sounds to me that you are all looking for a horse like FRAMMENTO!
He has to run well in a big race to get the points, but Zito still thinks he belongs. His late move in his last race would bode well for a speed back-up at CD?
so Dallas Stewart has any horses this year????. I threw out 1 horse 3 years back, it was Golden Soul, and he finished 2nd , so last year, as a back up bet, I put Stewarts horse 2nd and 3rd and wheeled him. Another plodder who hits the board.
I don't think you guys are giving Firing Line the respect that he deserves. Not sure how you can rank Dortmund #2 and leave FL off your lists completely. Makes no sense. I think they've already proven that they're not very far apart.
This is just off the top of my head, but...
(1) Dortmund
(2) Firing Line (could even rank him #1 right now, considering that Dortmund still needs to get through another race before Derby Day, whereas Firing Line is headed straight there, assuming good health of course)
(3) Far From Over
(4) Upstart
(5) Carpe Diem
Kind of going out on a limb with Far From Over, but I couldn't really have been any more impressed with his effort in the Withers. Probably too inexperienced to win the Derby (especially coming from the Pletcher barn, yuck), but I've seen Big Brown win the Derby impressively off only 3 career starts, so I know it can be done. Very nice horse here; we'll know more after the Wood Memorial.
Can't honestly rank American Pharaoh over any of the above-named horses. Not when he basically had a public workout in the Rebel after being out of action since last September, and combined with the fact I haven't seen him win from off the lead (i can't ever expect a horse to wire the Derby). Surely a very nice animal, and maybe I'll change my opinion after the Arkansas Derby, but right now he's not in my Top 5.
PS - Can't believe I forgot about Prospect Park; I actually have a small future bet on him @ 30/1. He's right there with those 3-thru-5 horses, who for me are all pretty interchangeable right now (though I suspect Far From Over is the best of the three). Honorable mention for Bolo, I guess. It wouldn't be a huge shock if he (and/or Prospect Park) improves in the SA Derby.
Can't honestly rank American Pharaoh over any of the above-named horses. Not when he basically had a public workout in the Rebel after being out of action since last September, and combined with the fact I haven't seen him win from off the lead (i can't ever expect a horse to wire the Derby). Surely a very nice animal, and maybe I'll change my opinion after the Arkansas Derby, but right now he's not in my Top 5.
PS - Can't believe I forgot about Prospect Park; I actually have a small future bet on him @ 30/1. He's right there with those 3-thru-5 horses, who for me are all pretty interchangeable right now (though I suspect Far From Over is the best of the three). Honorable mention for Bolo, I guess. It wouldn't be a huge shock if he (and/or Prospect Park) improves in the SA Derby.
You know I'm huge on PP and Firing Line. BUT, the way Baffert talks about AP leads me to believe he's the one. Baffert really thinks this is one of his best ever DC...
Is Om done boys? Can we win the SA derby and then the Kentucky derby? Or does his trainer have a better chance of walking into the winners circle?
I saw a blurb about Om not too long ago (might even have been here, i forget). I wanna say he just had his first workout. No way in hell he makes the Derby.
You know I'm huge on PP and Firing Line. BUT, the way Baffert talks about AP leads me to believe he's the one. Baffert really thinks this is one of his best ever DC...
Sound bites from Baffert aren't gonna help that horse win the Derby. Neither is his (currently) one-dimensional running style.
It's not that i dislike AP....far from it. He obviously has a bundle of talent, and honestly, he has one of the best-looking strides i think i've ever seen. I just think it's going to be a very tall order for him, due to his present circumstances.
Sound bites from Baffert aren't gonna help that horse win the Derby. Neither is his (currently) one-dimensional running style.
It's not that i dislike AP....far from it. He obviously has a bundle of talent, and honestly, he has one of the best-looking strides i think i've ever seen. I just think it's going to be a very tall order for him, due to his present circumstances.
Many thought Smarty or Cal Chrome, needed the lead and both laid back in the 2nd flight for the Ky Derby and then made their push button move to take the lead down the lane and hold the rest at bay. During these preps they are just that much faster than their other competition and they secure an easy lead and no one can challenge them as they are lesser runners. The majority of these field during this years Ky Derby preps have been HORRIBLE!! The Calif preps by far have been the most competitive and that goes for the upcoming SA Derby. The Ark Derby will be a joke as AP will tower over that field like Firing Line towered over the Sunland Derby yesterday. The Wood will be a nice race as their are 4 nice runners going to face off in that race. I agree on Firing Line, he's a nice colt and has to be taken seriously as he has been right their with Dortmund this year in some nice battles!! I'm not a fan of him training up to the KY Derby off his Sunland win. I think that because of his bone ailments he's been dealing with and he's a fragile horse that want to get in the gate on the 1st Saturday in May!!!!
I don't think you guys are giving Firing Line the respect that he deserves. Not sure how you can rank Dortmund #2 and leave FL off your lists completely. Makes no sense. I think they've already proven that they're not very far apart.
This is just off the top of my head, but...
(1) Dortmund
(2) Firing Line (could even rank him #1 right now, considering that Dortmund still needs to get through another race before Derby Day, whereas Firing Line is headed straight there, assuming good health of course)
(3) Far From Over
(4) Upstart
(5) Carpe Diem
Kind of going out on a limb with Far From Over, but I couldn't really have been any more impressed with his effort in the Withers. Probably too inexperienced to win the Derby (especially coming from the Pletcher barn, yuck), but I've seen Big Brown win the Derby impressively off only 3 career starts, so I know it can be done. Very nice horse here; we'll know more after the Wood Memorial.
Can't honestly rank American Pharaoh over any of the above-named horses. Not when he basically had a public workout in the Rebel after being out of action since last September, and combined with the fact I haven't seen him win from off the lead (i can't ever expect a horse to wire the Derby). Surely a very nice animal, and maybe I'll change my opinion after the Arkansas Derby, but right now he's not in my Top 5.
PS - Can't believe I forgot about Prospect Park; I actually have a small future bet on him @ 30/1. He's right there with those 3-thru-5 horses, who for me are all pretty interchangeable right now (though I suspect Far From Over is the best of the three). Honorable mention for Bolo, I guess. It wouldn't be a huge shock if he (and/or Prospect Park) improves in the SA Derby.
I completed my final #'s last night and as of last week, your boy Firing Line has the top # going into this weekend's races, I think it has to do with the track. But no matter as of today FWIW, on my #'s he's the fastest through last weekend.
I completed my final #'s last night and as of last week, your boy Firing Line has the top # going into this weekend's races, I think it has to do with the track. But no matter as of today FWIW, on my #'s he's the fastest through last weekend.
I bet Line of David was a really nice dirt horse, too. We had synthetic when he was around right?
Correct about Line of David, but were his only 2 dirt races the Ark and Kentucky Derby? Maybe I'm wrong about the surfaces in Cali....
Anyways.... Mubtaahij anyone? He had a dream trip, but jesus fucking christ. He apparently will be in Kentucky.
I literally sent a near identical text to my buddy. Wow. He will be in the Derby....and he will also be on my tickets. I never thought I'd use a UAE Derby winner in the derby, but he appears to be the real deal. Dream trip and weak field or not, that was a real performance.
Well... Upstart wasn't exactly a monster. But was a bit wide. Any potential value if he drifts up to 20-1 in the future pool? Or do you get that Derby day now anyways...? Or is he done?
Make note of the bold quote and bookmark it. That's HUGE INFO on a horse!!!
(Compare to Constitution): "There are some similarities, they're both lightly raced horses that won the Florida Derby early in their career, but our biggest concern was just coming back in 22 days off a really huge effort. So we monitored how he was training--he looked great. He's a big, strong colt and he holds his weight really well. He's got a big appetite. He put forth a really good breeze a week ago so we felt like he was showing us all of the right signs. Yet you still worry about those situations when you get to the eighth pole. Watching Stanford (second in Islamorada) finish a very good second in the Louisiana Derby about a half-hour before gives you a little more confidence, but you're still concerned about the short turnaround.
Well Carpe and Dortmund both showed major class today.
I thought Prospect Park got a horrible ride, and the connections are going to be furious with Kent if getting nosed out for 3rd cost them a Derby chance.
Well Carpe and Dortmund both showed major class today.
I thought Prospect Park got a horrible ride, and the connections are going to be furious with Kent if getting nosed out for 3rd cost them a Derby chance.
After watching again, I think PP hates being between horses and his race was over when Kent yanked on him entering the first turn. If he makes the Derby he's your Giacomo type.
Firing Line looks pretty good after yesterday too.
Comments
My contenders in no order at this time, strictly off visual performances!! These runners below win races in the right manner to win on the 1st Saturday in May.
Upstart
Dortmund
AP
Capre Diem
Prospect Park
Scary.
My top 5
1)AP
2) Dort
3) Prospect Park
4)Carpe
5) Upstart
I don't see anyone else getting the blanket of roses from those 5, if so it will be a Golden Soul or Commanding Curve type that gets a pace meltdown and passes all the tired ones. The big sleeper that will get some PRESS is Keen Ice, if he wins the La. Derby. He might go off the favorite next Saturday. The so called Wise Guys love this colt!! He reminds me of the two above that catch a piece plodding down the lane when everyone else is stopping!
I know there is going to be a lot of support for Far From Over moving forward as well.
I do have an eye on another, not mentioned, if BB thinks he can move forward and decides to run him again in the next 3 weeks.
You think that much of One Lucky Dane??
Now, is he rushing it, no question but if he's as good as I think and came out of race with no issues and it sounds like he did, I could see him moving forward again.
He's nominated to the Bluegrass and BB already stated he's very possible for the SA Derby. We shall see.
I'm hearing Ocho is headed to Kee, for the BG. He's a sprinter to me, but he's had enough of California it would appear.
Upstart
Prospect Park
American Pharaoh
Dortmund
Om (if he's around anywhere)
Carpe Diem
Firing Line
Holy shit. Didn't realize we all have the same top 5.... wow. Somebody is gonna come out of nowhere.
He has to run well in a big race to get the points, but Zito still thinks he belongs. His late move in his last race would bode well for a speed back-up at CD?
This is just off the top of my head, but...
(1) Dortmund
(2) Firing Line (could even rank him #1 right now, considering that Dortmund still needs to get through another race before Derby Day, whereas Firing Line is headed straight there, assuming good health of course)
(3) Far From Over
(4) Upstart
(5) Carpe Diem
Kind of going out on a limb with Far From Over, but I couldn't really have been any more impressed with his effort in the Withers. Probably too inexperienced to win the Derby (especially coming from the Pletcher barn, yuck), but I've seen Big Brown win the Derby impressively off only 3 career starts, so I know it can be done. Very nice horse here; we'll know more after the Wood Memorial.
Can't honestly rank American Pharaoh over any of the above-named horses. Not when he basically had a public workout in the Rebel after being out of action since last September, and combined with the fact I haven't seen him win from off the lead (i can't ever expect a horse to wire the Derby). Surely a very nice animal, and maybe I'll change my opinion after the Arkansas Derby, but right now he's not in my Top 5.
PS - Can't believe I forgot about Prospect Park; I actually have a small future bet on him @ 30/1. He's right there with those 3-thru-5 horses, who for me are all pretty interchangeable right now (though I suspect Far From Over is the best of the three). Honorable mention for Bolo, I guess. It wouldn't be a huge shock if he (and/or Prospect Park) improves in the SA Derby.
You know I'm huge on PP and Firing Line. BUT, the way Baffert talks about AP leads me to believe he's the one. Baffert really thinks this is one of his best ever DC...
I saw a blurb about Om not too long ago (might even have been here, i forget). I wanna say he just had his first workout. No way in hell he makes the Derby.
Sound bites from Baffert aren't gonna help that horse win the Derby. Neither is his (currently) one-dimensional running style.
It's not that i dislike AP....far from it. He obviously has a bundle of talent, and honestly, he has one of the best-looking strides i think i've ever seen. I just think it's going to be a very tall order for him, due to his present circumstances.
Many thought Smarty or Cal Chrome, needed the lead and both laid back in the 2nd flight for the Ky Derby and then made their push button move to take the lead down the lane and hold the rest at bay. During these preps they are just that much faster than their other competition and they secure an easy lead and no one can challenge them as they are lesser runners. The majority of these field during this years Ky Derby preps have been HORRIBLE!! The Calif preps by far have been the most competitive and that goes for the upcoming SA Derby. The Ark Derby will be a joke as AP will tower over that field like Firing Line towered over the Sunland Derby yesterday. The Wood will be a nice race as their are 4 nice runners going to face off in that race. I agree on Firing Line, he's a nice colt and has to be taken seriously as he has been right their with Dortmund this year in some nice battles!! I'm not a fan of him training up to the KY Derby off his Sunland win. I think that because of his bone ailments he's been dealing with and he's a fragile horse that want to get in the gate on the 1st Saturday in May!!!!
I completed my final #'s last night and as of last week, your boy Firing Line has the top # going into this weekend's races, I think it has to do with the track. But no matter as of today FWIW, on my #'s he's the fastest through last weekend.
I bet Line of David was a really nice dirt horse, too. We had synthetic when he was around right?
LOD won the Ark Derby!!
Anyways.... Mubtaahij anyone? He had a dream trip, but jesus fucking christ. He apparently will be in Kentucky.
I literally sent a near identical text to my buddy. Wow. He will be in the Derby....and he will also be on my tickets. I never thought I'd use a UAE Derby winner in the derby, but he appears to be the real deal. Dream trip and weak field or not, that was a real performance.
Well... Upstart wasn't exactly a monster. But was a bit wide. Any potential value if he drifts up to 20-1 in the future pool? Or do you get that Derby day now anyways...? Or is he done?
(Compare to Constitution): "There are some similarities, they're both lightly raced horses that won the Florida Derby early in their career, but our biggest concern was just coming back in 22 days off a really huge effort. So we monitored how he was training--he looked great. He's a big, strong colt and he holds his weight really well. He's got a big appetite. He put forth a really good breeze a week ago so we felt like he was showing us all of the right signs. Yet you still worry about those situations when you get to the eighth pole. Watching Stanford (second in Islamorada) finish a very good second in the Louisiana Derby about a half-hour before gives you a little more confidence, but you're still concerned about the short turnaround.
In fact, i was recently told by a bloodstock agent that they actually shipped in (from Kentucky) the exact same dirt that they use @ Churchill Downs.
I thought Prospect Park got a horrible ride, and the connections are going to be furious with Kent if getting nosed out for 3rd cost them a Derby chance.
After watching again, I think PP hates being between horses and his race was over when Kent yanked on him entering the first turn. If he makes the Derby he's your Giacomo type.
Firing Line looks pretty good after yesterday too.