2017 Kentucky Derby Futures
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Did any of you guys catch the debut win from Takaful a couple of weeks ago?
He ran on 10/29 @ Belmont and cruised gate-to-wire in very impressive fractions of 21.4, 44.4, 109.1, 115.4. What's also notable is that his time at the 6 furlong mark (109.1) was only a couple of ticks slower than that of a graded sprint stakes for older horses about an hour later on the same card (108.4). He's also seemingly well-bred for the Derby distance (Bernardini out of a Distorted Humor mare). I also saw a quote from trainer McLaughlin where he said that he had thought the sprint distance might've been too short for him because he seemed like he wanted two turns. He also said that he plans to run him in next weekend's Remsen Stakes, and was concerned about stretching him from 6 furlongs all the way to 1 1/8 miles second time out, but that Takaful was "very talented".
I looked around Vegas and only see two prices on him (there's only two sheets in town right now), 40/1 @ the Wynn and 50/1 @ William Hill. Pretty damn short already, but of course he looks like a very nice horse (with a good trainer) and if he wins the Remsen he's gonna see his price chopped in half next weekend.
Anyway, interesting horse so i thought i'd bring it up in a new "live" thread that we can hopefully keep current all Spring with horses that catch our eye this year.
Here's the replay of Takaful's maiden win:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/BEL/2016/10/29/7/race-7-msw-at-bel-on-10-29-16
He ran on 10/29 @ Belmont and cruised gate-to-wire in very impressive fractions of 21.4, 44.4, 109.1, 115.4. What's also notable is that his time at the 6 furlong mark (109.1) was only a couple of ticks slower than that of a graded sprint stakes for older horses about an hour later on the same card (108.4). He's also seemingly well-bred for the Derby distance (Bernardini out of a Distorted Humor mare). I also saw a quote from trainer McLaughlin where he said that he had thought the sprint distance might've been too short for him because he seemed like he wanted two turns. He also said that he plans to run him in next weekend's Remsen Stakes, and was concerned about stretching him from 6 furlongs all the way to 1 1/8 miles second time out, but that Takaful was "very talented".
I looked around Vegas and only see two prices on him (there's only two sheets in town right now), 40/1 @ the Wynn and 50/1 @ William Hill. Pretty damn short already, but of course he looks like a very nice horse (with a good trainer) and if he wins the Remsen he's gonna see his price chopped in half next weekend.
Anyway, interesting horse so i thought i'd bring it up in a new "live" thread that we can hopefully keep current all Spring with horses that catch our eye this year.
Here's the replay of Takaful's maiden win:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/BEL/2016/10/29/7/race-7-msw-at-bel-on-10-29-16
Comments
Let's find every high dollar named 2yo that went to Baffert, throw out the ones we know are pieces of shit, and try to get big prices on the rest.
Gormley is what, 20-1?
Masterly? He won again today. He was already 18/1 @ Wynn off the lone maiden win though. Even lower @ William Hill, 16/1. Utterly ridiculous.
Gormley is 50/1 @ Wynn, or 75/1 @ William Hill.
Race 3
2yo msw one mile
The Boyz are real excited about a second time starter from Randy Morse barn.
#2 SILVER DUST, 7/2 ml
Randy's big client, Tom Durant paid $510k for this one at Ocala sale. Tapit/ Hard Spun mare was training like a very good one and made his debut last month at Cd going one mile. Cisco Torres in the irons and he walked out of the gate and spotted the field too much ground. He hit his stride rounding the turn and fanned wide to close a lot of ground but too little too late. Gets Lanerie today and draws the rail, but Morse and company like him a lot! Owner Durant likes to back his own so don't be shocked to see Silver Dust go off around 2-1? Word from connex is that we will see this one in the upcoming Oaklawn 3yo series! I'm playing straight up W/P and using him in exotics with the 1A--4--and 6 at the back end of my exotics. The 1A from the Assman has some speedy works which should tell you he has some good speed and outran a stranglehold from exercise rider. 1A--2--4 ex bx looks tempting?
I bet 10 bucks. #MAGA
Nice! :toast:
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/takaful-win-no-shock-for-mclaughlin/
Masterly now down to 12/1 @ Wynn. Good grief.
At the Wynn, he's currently 10/1, if you can believe that.
McCracken is now 14/1 @ William Hill.
Current sheets acre showing him 50/1 at William Hill, 40/1 at Wynn.
Agreed. And the race has come back very live IMO.
https://horses.bovada.lv/futures/A/2591600
Iliad. Was out working decent older horses. It's not like he's afraid to debut nice ones at Los al... Arrogate did.
Thanks, I'll keep my eye on him.
Will update if/when he returns to the worktab.
This was the sire bet to get...
Was just doing a little research on this one. Interesting breeding, by Ghostzapper out of a You and I mare. I know that You and I was a miler, and one of the fastest ones in the country at one point. Seems likely to stretch out being by Ghostzapper, but the bottom side probably doesn't scream 1 1/4 miles.
On the positive side, when i saw how fast he ran in the maiden win the other day (108.34), i had to check the results from the other races on the card to see if maybe the track was just running lightning fast. They had a MSW for 2yo fillies at the same distance that had a runaway 10-length winner who ran in 109.01, so Iliad was most of a full second faster than that one (impressive considering that one won by 10 lengths).
I also liked the way he finished up, it seemed like he started rolling pretty good the last sixteenth or so (although he was being pushed on pretty hard by the rider, fwiw).
Definitely some things to like, though not sure why he ran so poorly in the debut. Speaking of which, the winner from that race is another Baffert named American Anthem. That one actually went favored pretty strongly (8/5), with Iliad being the longer half of the entry (and running like it).
American Anthem has worked twice since that race, btw. I'm guessing he'll turn up pretty early @ Santa Anita. As for breeding, he's by Bodemeister out of an A.P. Indy mare.
Tracked and drew clear from Hoffenheim in 24.1, 47.3, 112.2. Solid steady mover looks solid and should like any added distance.---Grade: B
ILIAD Nov 6 SA 5 1:00H M FT B
Best over speedy mate Jeweled in 23.2 smooth late in 100.0. Nice late kick.---Grade: B
I think they gave him the first race. Hoffenheim won on Sunday as well.
I actually saw Beach Bum having been dropped to 25/1 at William Hill. This despite the fact that the horse isn't even in training right now (he hasn't worked out in almost a month).
Also, i'm listening right now to a local handicapping show where they had private clocker Toby Turrell on as a guest, and he mentioned that this $1,000,000 Baffert colt named Dabster (who debuts Race 3 on tomorrow's Opening Day Santa Anita card) is a big, strong colt who has been training very impressively. I'm gonna dig up his workouts right now and see if i can find anything noteworthy.
Incidentally, another Baffert colt in that same race (First Degree Burn) is coming out of a 3-rd place finish in that Beach Bum race the day after the Breeders Cup (from which three horses have returned to win, i think).
Edit: Just looked up those workouts on Dabster. It seems that each of his last 3 drills (including 2 from the gate) have come heads-up with an unraced colt named Dre Dan.
Btw, both Dabster and Dre Dan were mentioned in this article (link below), in which Baffert notably stated, "This is the best crop of 2yo's i've ever had."
http://www.drf.com/news/baffert-loaded-3-year-olds
This just in, Beach Bum returned to the worktab this morning after a month-long absence. He went 4 furlong in 49.40 @ Santa Anita.
Fellow Baffert maiden winner American Anthem also worked out this morning, fwiw (different distance).
Dre Dan is entered tomorrow (around two turns)
cant judge dre dans race imo.
iliad will be in a new barn after shaw and baffert split.
Interesting, I hadn't seen that yet. Thanks.